Gold Coast Suns
2015 ladder position: 16th
2016 ladder prediction range: 13-16th
Besides perhaps Collingwood, no side suffered at the hands of the injury gods more than Gold Coast in during the 2015 season, Rodney Eade’s first in charge at the Suns. Captain Gary Ablett’s undisputed brilliance was missing for all bar six games as he succumbed to a shoulder injury, for starters. In those few outings in which he featured he proved what a completely different beast this side is with him in it.
But that’s sort of the been the problem with the Suns from day one. Has any side been more dependent on a single player since Tony Lockett’s heyday at St Kilda? What Eade will draw solace from is the fact that David Swallow, Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara played a mere 14 games between them last season with the latter a non-starter. O’Meara is also unlikely to feature until at least round seven or eight this season and Swallow won’t begin his campaign until the halfway mark of 2016, which will continue to trouble Eade. Taking that much ball-winning ability and class out of any side would hurt and particularly so for one still trying to figure out exactly what its identity is.
The Suns were simply obliterated in contested ball-winning scenarios in 2015 and rarely stood much of a chance. Blow-outs were inevitable, especially with Eade and his coaching team putting out so many behavioural spot-fires throughout the campaign.
Needless to say that such dismal on-field performances in the fledgling years of the club have hindered their short-term ability to build on their fan base and attendances, both of which dropped in 2015 to the point that the league had to kick in an extra $2m in funding over the off-season. Rival clubs will also swoop like seagulls on out-of-contract O’Meara and Prestia at some point this year. The re-signing of Kade Kolodjashnij until the end of 2018 is at least a minor coup.
On account of all that, the richly talented but troubled Harley Bennell forced the club’s hand and departed, as did key forward Charlie Dixon to strengthen Port’s scoring stocks. Those are big losses, and if the Suns had jettisoned everyone who acted up in 2015 they’d have bigger list management issues than Essendon. In the absence of Ablett, fans had to be content with the rapid development of Kolodjashnij, Adam Saad and Touk Miller, who can now combine with all the other pieces in place to create a more competitive outfit in 2016, but finals still look a decent way off.
Miller was particularly strong last once thrown into the midfield, standing alone as the only 2015 draftee to feature in every home and away game for the year. His development having been accelerated rapidly, he’s well placed to add to the rotation of fit-again on-ballers. But like the rest of us, he’ll probably wonder how it’ll all look with a full squad to choose from and Eade better able to implement a coherent game plan, something that was near impossible last year.
With Dixon gone a lot of the scoring load will fall on Tom Lynch, though if 2015 is anything to go by he’ll also be sent into the backline at times too. Gold Coast’s ball use heading forward and their ability to retain possession is the potential hitch. Lynch aside, the targets simply don’t exist. Second-year prospect Peter Wright, who struggles in one-on-one contests? Where-do-we-put-him Sam Day? Several opposition defences will be relishing those match-ups unless Eade can manufacture something from left-field. At the very least the presence of ex-Bulldog Jarrad Grant and his trusty right boot will help. As Eade knows well, Grant genuinely can kick a goal. Brandon Matera will need to rediscover his scoring impact too.
The Suns wanted to welcome back their quartet of bluechip midfielders this year to give Michael Rischitelli a hand (unwanted Eagle Matt Rosa is a solid ball-winning addition), but the player drain and the O’Meara/Swallow injuries will hurt. This certainly isn’t the flag-contending side we thought it would be five years back. The addition of journeyman Daniel Currie for ruck depth seems like an unfortunate metaphor; four AFL games in 10 years. What is he, exactly? And what are the Suns right now?
Essendon
2015 ladder position: 15th
2016 ladder prediction range: 16-18th
All bets are off on Essendon’s prospects in 2016. No, literally. At various points in the last five months bookmakers have had to suspend wooden spoon betting, such was the hysteria surrounding the club’s fate at the hands of Wada and the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
Unless you were out collecting tribal artifacts with Mick Malthouse or sleeping in a cave, you’ll know by now that the Bombers are down 12 of the best players on their primary list due to the 12-month suspensions enforced by CAS and have been forced to draft in a variety of cast-offs, blue collar triers and VFL veterans to fill the void. It’s a sorry state of affairs and limits any real expectations in 2016 beyond the development of the kids.
Among the additions for this campaign is prickly ex-Docker hard man Ryan Crowley, whose career reprieve might have come in unfortunate circumstances but is nonetheless welcome to those who value the art of the hard tag. In certain respects it was surprising that there was no apparent interest for Crowley elsewhere in AFL ranks. At 31 he still offers a hard body and an old head – exactly the sight new coach John Worsfold will be comforted by. There was a view floated that Crowley’s recruitment after a one-year drugs ban was a bad look for crisis-struck Essendon, but so too is the sight of raw and inexperienced midfielders being beaten up on by opposition sides who know there’s nobody there to protect them.
The others added to bolster experience and play roles are former Dees ruckman Mark Jamar, whose tap work is of undoubted quality, fringe Hawks midfielder Jonathan Simpkin (who brings Premiership experience), former Lions half-forward James Polkinghore, Cats premiership stars James Kelly and Matthew Stokes, key position veterans Mitch Brown and Nathan Grima, plus discarded Hawk Sam Grimley, who’ll need to do a decent load of the work up forward alongside rapidly-maturing Joe Daniher and wily Adam Cooney.
Picked up at the trade table was former Sydney midfielder-forward Craig Bird, while Brisbane’s oft-injured but talented ruckman Matthew Leuenberger arrived as a free agent. Cobbling it all together in the absence of Jobe Watson is fill-in skipper Brendon Goddard, lion-hearted Mark Baguley and a smattering of old stagers like Cooney, David Zaharakis, Courtenay Dempsey and the various fill-ins.
The pronounced midfield mismatches are going to be the issue for this side, of course, but at least Essendon won’t be short on muscle in defence, with Grima and even swingman Brown capable of handling the big forwards. The ruck options of Leuenberger, Jamar and Shaun McKernan are perfectly competent and there might also be something liberating for this patchwork playing list in knowing that none of them will ever be far off a senior call-up.
So the kids will get their chances. On draft day Essendon boasted two top-10 picks for the first time since 1996 and swooped on ready-made players – the best course of action given their inglorious last few seasons – in midfielder Darcy Parish and South Australian defender Aaron Francis, also adding mature-bodied Michael Hartley late in the piece. Others whose development will continue apace include Zach Merrett, Martin Gleeson and Orazio Fantasia.
All this said, it’ll be close to a miracle for the Bombers to avoid a bottom-four finish this season and we really shouldn’t expect any more in Worsfold’s first year. It’s impossible to throw off the shackles of the past four years but in blooding plenty of the youngsters there will at least be a sense of renewal.
What lies beyond that is the real question mark. Which of the suspended players will lose prime condition or stall as a result of the one-year lay off? Which of them will lose their drive or passion for the game? Will Jobe Watson return at all? Rightly, Worsfold is focusing on positives for now, ambitiously pencilling Essendon in for a top-four finish in 2018. In the meantime he’ll be happy with basic levels of competitiveness.
In focus on Wednesday: St Kilda and Melbourne
