Fremantle
2015 ladder position: 1st
2016 predicted ladder range: 7th-9th
Borrowing some life philosophy from the father of fictional Nascar driver Ricky Bobby and applying it to Fremantle’s chances in 2016, we figure that if you ain’t first, you’re last. Thus our dire prediction for Fremantle is also a compliment of sorts; perhaps Ross Lyon has wrung every last drop of productivity out of his list and can brace for a significant fall in this campaign, just like what St Kilda eventually experienced in his nearly-there reign as coach.
Lyon and the Dockers have been written off before, of course. Namely last season, when they defied pessimistic forecasts to claim the minor premiership but fell short on preliminary final weekend, the victims of fatigue, downward momentum and injuries to key players. On that front, not much can be said about Nat Fyfe’s otherworldly talents and physical bravery in his side’s final game of the campaign, but he just didn’t have quite enough high-end support when it mattered.
You’re probably thinking, “How can a Ross ‘we bank the four points’ Lyon side that just won the minor premiership possibly drop out of the eight, you fool?” But such a situation is certainly not without precedent and if you’re predicting that sides will rise this year, others have to fall. There’s an unfortunate irony at play here too. Derided as the architect of joy-crushing football aesthetic, Lyon is not given enough credit for how oddly charismatic, engaging and genuinely interesting he is – always ready with some strange thought bubble that gives an insight into the more playful personality traits that must surely counterbalance his manic intensity.
The catalyst for Freo’s best football last year was plain to see; suffocating team defence restricted their opponents to an average of just 62 points per game during their early-season winning streak, a league-leading figure. Combining that with the contested ball dominance of Aaron Sandilands and Fyfe plus sure-footed kicking on the outside, they were able to keep the ball away from their opponents. But as the year wore on it became harder and harder to sustain this finely-calibrated operation and every opponent they faced in the second half of the year steeled itself to apply unprecedented levels of pressure, cutting off the amount of uncontested possession that the Dockers had previously used to shut other teams out of the game.
This is one of the lesser-understood and acknowledged by-products of being coached by the best – everyone else “gets up” and motivates themselves just that little extra when they face you. And being less creative themselves, last year the Dockers rarely punished sides from turnovers, which can tend to have the knock-on effect of encouraging opponents to take on the game even more.
All this said, it’s possible they’re at the stage of their lifecycle where they’ll take a dip. In the off-season they brought in richly-talented but wayward Harley Bennell, who certainly won’t get an easy ride under Lyon. If he consistently finds his best, he and a fit Fyfe would be a scary combination. Besides anything, Bennell regularly hits the scoreboard, which the Dockers desperately need given their lack of targets inside 50.
The midfield is the strength, of course. Sandilands remains a beast in the ruck and the Fyfe-Mundy-Hill-Neale-Barlow rotation is among the league’s most potent.
Still, there is a fear that the sight of Matthew Pavlich struggling away on his own during the preliminary final gives a portal into Fremantle’s issues this year because there’s a worrying lack of key position players. Luke McPharlin is now gone, Pavlich is creaking towards the end of his magnificent career, David Mundy endures but Matt Taberner is the only other viable key forward option at present. Again much will fall to small forwards Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne.
Down in the backline, it’s oldies Michael Johnson, Zac Dawson plus the inconsistent likes of Alex Silvagni, Clancee Pearce and Alex Pearce. That’s a concern, no matter how well the midfielders function within a team defence structure.
Lyon has made a habit of defying expectations with his well-drilled sides but 2016 could be the year that this Dockers list – for the third year running the league’s oldest – finally grinds to a halt.
Sydney
2015 ladder position: 4th
2016 predicted ladder range: 1st-3rd
There or thereabouts for most of 2015, the season just kind of disintegrated at finals time for John Longmire and his Sydney men. Missing talismanic forward Lance Franklin, plus midfield linchpins Kieren Jack, Luke Parker and defensive lockdown master Nick Smith, the Swans limped away from September on semi-final weekend, comprehensively beaten by an unfancied North Melbourne side. Fit and firing, they might have hammered Brad Scott’s side but unfortunately for them that’s just not how finals work.
The Swans will play all of their home games at the SCG this year, a sight for sore eyes for football fans and for players, a welcome relief to their feet after the ongoing farce that was ANZ Stadium’s surface in the past few years. What a pity that Homebush was the last ground Adam Goodes walked off.
Needless to say, Sydney will contend again in 2016 and given a clean bill of health, should be considered a big chance of pushing their way into another grand final. One of their issues last year, oddly for a side containing Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Gary Rohan and Sam Reid, was that their scoring potency didn’t match the strength of their defensive efforts. That will need to change in 2016 if they’re going to knock off the top sides more regularly and young star Isaac Heeney will certainly have a role there.
The midfield is as strong and deep as any in the competition with Josh Kennedy, Daniel Hannebery, Parker, Jack, Jarrad McVeigh and Tom Mitchell all consistently excellent performers. A big help this year will be the arrival from West Coast of Callum Sinclair, a most underrated player in the Eagles’ renaissance last season and an extremely valuable pick-up in that he’s both athletic and knows his way around the forward 50. He could be one of the recruits of the season as a mobile tall.
In defence, Heath Grundy is now an elite key defender, Dane Rampe a creative one and Nick Smith an expert at blanketing the best small forwards, while Ted Richards and Jeremy Laidler’s solid stopping work on key forwards is now augmented by that of ex-Bulldog Michael Talia. This could also be the year that Zak Jones comes into his own as a tough-as-nails intercepting defender.
McVeigh, Reid and Rohan will all start the season late on account of injuries but Sydney are otherwise healthy. Their fixture isn’t terrible either, with only one game at Domain Stadium against the Dockers who, as with contenders West Coast, Collingwood, the Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, they only face once. Two fixtures against Hawthorn and a testing final week is the worst of it.
With a full list to chose from late this season, there’s really no reason why Longmire and the Swans shouldn’t feature prominently at the pointy end of the finals.
In focus on Thursday: Hawthorn and West Coast
