Collingwood
2015 ladder position: 12th
2016 predicted ladder range: 4-6th
Just as no club was more blighted by injuries than Collingwood in 2015, it’s possible that none will face greater expectations for rapid improvement in the current campaign. A top-four side at the half-way mark of the past two seasons, the Pies have failed to reach the finals both times. That simply won’t do this year and if we’re honest, given a clean bill of health it’s unlikely to.
Genuine contenders don’t use injuries as excuses but Collingwood truly did endure a nightmare run in 2015, losing five games by under two goals in the second half of the year after they’d been cushioned by a soft draw for the first half. But even when hobbled they pushed the top sides hard. That bodes well for a first-string side. This is a list that should theoretically move to the billing of flag contender across the next 4-5 seasons, a point midfielder Steele Sidebottom made well after the Pies locked him in until the end of 2021. Collingwood’s re-signing of Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp and Adam Oxley can’t hurt to that end, either.
When you look down this playing list and the murderer’s row of high profile off-season recruits, it’s hard to temper expectations. In come brutish midfielder Adam Treloar, high-leaping defender Jeremy Howe and the classy but unfulfilled James Aish, the last of whom is now placed in the best possible position given the support around him. Whether he can break into the senior line-up and stay there remains to be seen. At present he’s well down the pecking order behind the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Adams and Sidebottom.
There’s good news for Collingwood within existing ranks, too. Hopes remain high that highly-rated swingman Ben Reid has fully recovered from the various ailments that restricted him to just nine games in the past two seasons. Pies assistant coach Scott Burns was ebullient in his praise for Reid over the pre-season period. “However important you think [Alex] Rance is to Richmond,” Burns said, “I reckon Ben Reid is not far off that important at Collingwood.”
Treloar will add another dimension to this side and Jordan de Goey looks a genuine star in the making. The latter is one of many players given extended runs in the seniors in the past few years, a move that should start reaping rewards now. Unburdened by having to be too many things at once, Howe could do anything.
Another thing Collingwood has going for it is a developing list of legitimate forwards to form a multi-faceted scoring plan, one that doesn’t just rely on Travis Cloke and his wonky kicking. Darcy Moore’s putting meat on his bones and has already shown his undisputed class, but Corey Gault and giant American Mason Cox have been the pre-season revelations. They could provide match-up nightmares, especially 211-centimetre Cox. The latter will nevertheless compete with the likes of Jarrod Witts and Brodie Grundy for a ruck slot.
Expectations have well and truly set in for Nathan Buckley and this side, but they’re now also well placed to challenge for the next half-decade thanks to canny recruitment off the back of losing the likes of Dale Thomas, Heath Shaw, Dayne Beams and Sharrod Wellingham. Everywhere you look there’s a younger player who provides a spark; Tom Langdon, Marley Williams, Jack Frost and Oxley in defence, Adams, Treloar, Crisp, de Goey and Jarryd Blair in the middle, and Gault, Moore, Alex Fasolo and Jamie Elliot in front of goal.
Considering the blend of established senior stars and top young talent on display here, Collingwood’s long odds in Premiership betting are perhaps generous. If any side from outside last season’s eight finds itself in a preliminary final this year, it could well be the Pies.
GWS Giants
2015 ladder position: 11th
2016 predicted ladder range: 10-12th
Until the AFL establishes a franchise in Wangaratta, no club in the league will face greater challenges to retain players than Greater Western Sydney, the least fashionably located expansion side in Australian sport. And yet this squad belied its ugly duckling status in the opening stages of 2015, playing some of the most attractive football of all in the first half of last season, when they sat at 7-3, playing like baby Hawks and looking genuinely capable of shaking up September.
It didn’t quite pan out in the end for Leon Cameron’s side, it’s safe to say. Despite an abundance of tall forwards and counter-attacking flair, the Giants faded badly in the latter half of the season, when their run-ins with established top-eight sides tended to end in alarming contested possession differentials and comprehensive losses.
This despite boasting an A-grade ruckman, Shane Mumford, whose tap work and relentless aggression gives his side a clear advantage. But any time Mumford’s been absent GWS have looked lost, a factor underlined by one of the competition’s most alarming stats: with ‘Mummy’ crashing in at the centre bounce last season the Giants were +25 for clearances. Without him they were -63. The loss of Adam Treloar amplifies this concern until this side’s top academy prospects mature.
Save for hard-nosed Callan Ward and Dylan Shiel, whom of the Giants’ midfielders will win the inside ball so that the likes of Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield and Tom Scully can do their thing on the outside? Stephen Coniglio? Toby Greene between forward stints? Not all the scoring can come from defensive rebounds. This side is far from a finished product.
As beautifully as he uses the ball, Ryan Griffen is earning a lot of money to sit a kick behind play. The Giants would clearly benefit from something closer to a full season from key defensive rock Phil Davis. Joel Patfull was a handy addition last season and Heath Shaw was superb in rebounding from defence and setting up so many attacking moves. When those swung into action, Kelly was particularly handy with the final kick inside 50; the Giants scored from 50% of his forward entries.
Of the additions, Steve Johnson will have the most immediate impact, adding both Premiership experience and goal-kicking nous, though the sight of him in a Giants guernsey is still more than a little unsettling to the senses, even for neutral observers. The club have brought him in as a kind of on-field assistant coach, much like the role played by Luke Power, Chad Cornes and Dean Brogan in previous years. Perhaps that’s smart and in light of the club’s position in the development lifecycle, necessary. But it also begs a few uncomfortable questions about shortfalls elsewhere, both in leadership, strategy and list management.
On that note, the Cam McCarthy situation is clearly far from ideal. Having requested a trade home to Western Australia following his 35-goal showing in 2015 and then back-flipping to commit to a lengthy contract, the youngster was granted indefinite leave in late January after struggling to cope with his professional commitments. Whether he proves a stayer remains to be seen, as is the case for this talented but unconvincing side.
In focus on Friday: Geelong and Port Adelaide
