Adelaide
2015 ladder position: 7th
2016 predicted ladder range: 10-12th
Six months on from Adelaide’s 2015 finals exit, which came a week after their stirring, against-the-odds victory over the Bulldogs, you can still only marvel at what a remarkable achievement their late-season surge was. Not only did the Crows endure the tragic loss of their coach Phil Walsh – a man who seemed set on becoming far more to his players than just the guy with the clipboard barking orders at them – but they came out the other side being the best possible version of the exhilarating side he’d wanted them to be.
In comparison with such a spiritual blow, you could probably say that the off-season departure of midfield star Patrick Dangerfield was something that Crows people could eye with a renewed sense of perspective, but on a practical level it certainly won’t help this side’s chances in 2016.
The Crows have now lost half a dozen top-5 players in or or at the verge of their prime in the last decade and that’s compromised their progress. Carrying an extra burden now is skipper Taylor Walker, whose free-range approach to ground coverage last season transformed the one-time stay-at-home spearhead into a Reiwoldt-esque roamer. He was superb in almost every sense a captain could be. On a pragmatic level, the likes of Rory Sloane and Scott Thompson have a lot of slack to pick up in the middle but new coach Don Pyke thinks that oft-injured Brad Crouch and Jarryd Lyons will step up too.
Adelaide’s talent acquisition during trade week was certainly nothing to be sneezed at and anyway, they were never going to be able to replace Dangerfield immediately. Troy Menzel played some gorgeous football as a small forward at Carlton but his body is the big battle. Paul Seedsman was a fan favourite at the Pies and an Anzac Medal winner but mostly couldn’t replicate that barnstorming form elsewhere. Dean Gore and Curtly Hampton could be anything or nothing, and the latter is off to a bad start with a six-week injury lay-off.
Into the coaching post this season comes former Eagle Pyke, who is employing a tactical template every bit as attacking as Walsh’s. If the Crows’ pre-season told us anything, it’s that this side will take every opportunity to move the ball quickly through the centre corridor.
That’s a change of tune in some senses though and not neccessarily playing to the strengths of his midfield group. To be blunt, Adelaide doesn’t possess a host of elite ball-users and the Crows finished 17th in the league last year for both kicking and handball efficiency, a remarkable shortcoming for a final-winning side. Its virtue in season’s past has been the array contested ball monsters who’ve rained the ball inside 50 so regularly that Walker, Josh Jenkins, Charlie Cameron and Eddie Betts get enough scoring chances to win games. But is this ageing midfield group quick and skilful enough to do thing’s Pyke’s way?
Our dual concern with this side in the post-Danger era is that their on-ball brigade is now getting long in the tooth too, even if they’ll receive impeccable ruck service from Sam Jacobs. Richard Douglas could sleep-walk his way to 25 possessions but he’s pushing 30 and due a dip at some point, while 32-year-old Thompson can’t hang on forever at current levels of output. Nathan Van Berlo is waning. Brad Couch is undoubtedly valuable when he can get out there but that’s not often, so Sloane could cop a battering.
The other obvious problem with Pyke’s gung-ho mantra is that it’s not backed by high-grade team defence, so the Crows could be punished on the rebound. Adelaide conceded 89 points per game last year and you can’t see that improving out of sight straight away. Daniel Talia is a rock on the best forwards, Brodie Smith a reliable performer and Rory Laird an effective interceptor but is Pyke really banking on the likes of Kyle Cheney and Kyle Hartigan to make a massive leap?
You can almost guarantee that this side will score heavily at times, which will often cover the shortcomings elsewhere. Jenkins developed rapidly last year (he was a multiple goalscorer an impressive 13 times) when given space by Walker’s movement up field, Tom Lynch is one of the most effective leading targets in the league and livewires Betts and Cameron are always a handful. Throw Menzel in that mix and you’ve got some genuine match-up problems for opposition defences.
Our sense is that this Adelaide side could be every bit as loveable as it was in 2015 but mixed in there is the more pragmatic concern that they also could end up the most eye-pleasing non-finals side in the league.
North Melbourne
2015 ladder position: 8th
2016 predicted ladder range: 7-9th
In the past two seasons North Melbourne have developed a habit of making pundits look a bit silly, coming from miles back in the pack to reach consecutive preliminary finals. Last year they did so from eighth position at the end of the home and away season and this having never entered the top half of the ladder until round 17. Are you in one of those betting syndicates where you have to pick one winning side per week? Never use North Melbourne.
What helped last year was the influx of recycled senior players who actually added something compelling to the mix of more youthful, homegrown talent. Free agency top-ups Nick Dal Santo, Shaun Higgins and Jarrad Waite were the best of them and the latter pair in particular provided far greater service in 2015 than many expected. Higgins looked finished when he limped away from the Bulldogs but he was a man possessed last year, kicking 39 goals amid ten 20+ possession games.
Waite’s 42 goals were the measurable impact, but his bone-crunching attack on the ball made dropping back into the hole a frightening prospect for opposition defenders and also gave North the nasty edge they’d often lacked. But you could say that his and Higgins’ combined renaissance points to a concern for Brad Scott’s side; it’s really now or never because they and other key players like Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Daniel Wells and Michael Firrito are nearing the end of the road.
And the Roos certainly can’t afford a repeat of their glacial start to the season in 2015, because they face arguably the toughest draw in the league, playing all of reigning premiers Hawthorn, flag fancies Sydney and the Western Bulldogs twice. North could well remain the kind of side that would be a nightmare match-up in the first week of the finals, but that doesn’t really matter if they don’t get there.
The strengths are clear enough; this midfield mixes it with the best for contested ball and they move it around well too, often sweeping from defence to attack to create scoring opportunities. Godly ruckman Todd Goldstein gives them an almost ridiculous advantage from centre bounces, from which North tend to attack with potency through a solid core of hard-nosed on-ballers in Andrew Swallow, Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington. But the team defence is shabby and the back six often flat-footed. They can defend deep, when Scott Thompson, Firrito and Lachie Hansen come into their own, but there’s a lack of creativity in other respects.
There were no major ‘outs’ for North in the off-season and the best of their own pick-ups was former Hawk Jed Anderson, who can kick a goal and adds some pace. But there are too few ready replacements for the old guard, meaning that any progress this year will rely on not only the lesser lights improving rapidly, but the likes of Petrie, Firrito, 38-year-old Brent Harvey – who continues to defy all odds –maintaining their impossibly high standards. We just can’t see it happening this year for the Roos.
In focus tomorrow: Richmond and Western Bulldogs
