20 for 2020 College Football Topics, No. 18: The five teams that will take a step back after a great 2019.
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The sequel is almost never as good as the original.
For five key teams, trying to recreate what happened in 2019 is going to be next to impossible.
It doesn’t matter how good you are. If you’re coming off a huge season, you probably won’t get the same breaks, the right timing with the schedule, or that magical blend that made the previous campaign so special.
The five teams on this list aren’t going to be bad. On the contrary, most should be massive factors in their respective division and conference races.
However, just one extra loss could be enough for each of these five to take a wee step back.
Going from the lowest-ranked team in the 2019 final rankings to the highest …
5. Virginia Cavaliers
2020 FInal Ranking
AP NR (29), Coaches 25
Final Record: 9-5
What Made 2019 Special?
Bronco Mendenhall did it.
He took an okay program that was happy just to get to a bowl game on a regular basis, and he turned it into the Coastal Division champion that got to take its cut at the ACC Championship.
So what that Virginia got blown out by Clemson? So what that it lost to Florida in the Orange Bowl? It was a blast of a season with a win over Virginia Tech for the first time since 2003, a great finishing kick to take the vision, and again, it all finished up with a trip to the ACC title game and the Orange Bowl.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Virginia is good enough now where it can rebuild a bit and not worry too much about falling off the map. However, you don’t get better by losing a heart-and-soul quarterback like Bryce Perkins.
Bryce Hall was a special corner, the receiving corps drops some key parts, and Jordan Mack was a killer in the middle of the linebacking corps, but a whole lot of strong players are back.
If all goes to plan, as many as nine starters on the offensive side are back and seven should return on D. Throw in the developed depth, and how is Virginia going to be any worse?
Lose four regular season games after dropping three last year.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2020 Virginia Football Schedule Analysis
Virginia might have been tough and good, and there’s no dogging that win over Virginia Tech, but it also did a little bit of bum-slaying in a miserable year for the ACC.
It didn’t have to play Clemson until the ACC Championship, and while it got past Pitt and North Carolina, it also had wins over William & Mary, Duke, Georgia Tech, Liberty, and a mediocre Florida State team.
The ACC Coastal is notoriously flaky.
This time around, Virginia has to go to Virginia Tech and Clemson. Miami is going to be better – at least, it should be – Louisville, Pitt and North Carolina are going to be dangerous, and in non-conference play, opening up against Georgia isn’t great.
But the schedule isn’t all that bad. This should be another strong Virginia team that but go 8-4 instead of 9-3, and it’ll be a wee step back.
NEXT: After coming so close to the mountain top, Part 1 …
4. Utah Utes
2020 FInal Ranking
AP 16, Coaches 16
Final Record: 11-3
What Made 2019 Special?
It was early December and Utah was still right there in the hunt for the College Football Playoff.
It would’ve been an interesting debate for that fourth CFP spot had Utah pulled off the win over Oregon for the Pac-12 Championship, but it would’ve had a better argument than Oklahoma to get in.
Yeah, the 37-15 loss to the Ducks was bad, and not showing up for the Alamo Bowl against Texas – a 38-10 loss – was worse, but it was still a fantastic season for the Utes. They were dominant defensively until the end, they were fun, and they legitimately looked and played like a team that could’ve made some noise in the CFP.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Head coach Kyle Whittingham has created a whale of a program that should be able to at least compete for the Pac-12 South title on a regular basis, but there’s a whole lot of work to do with the 2020 team.
The backfield tandem of QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss are done. These two were special, but the O won’t be all that bad with one of the Pac-12’s best lines coming back.
The defensive side is a different story.
Three stars are gone off the brick wall up front, most of the top players in the secondary are done, and in eight key starters have to be replaced.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2020 Utah Football Schedule Analysis
It’s not all that bad.
There’s no Oregon to deal with, the Washington and USC games are at home, and there isn’t a non-conference game to worry about other than the opener against BYU – which is in Salt Lake City.
However, sort of like Virginia’s issue, even one extra regular season loss will be a disappointment. For Utah, after coming so achingly close to the playoff, going 10-2 – or just a little worse – will hardly feel the same.
The Pac-12 is going to be a wee bit better overall. Utah almost certainly won’t rip through it like it did for most of last season.
NEXT: After coming so close to the mountain top, Part 2 …
3. Baylor Bears
2020 FInal Ranking
AP 13, Coaches 12
Final Record: 11-3
What Made 2019 Special?
They were right there.
Everything was set up for the dream to come true. Utah lost to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship the night before, the team made a great comeback against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, and …
Baylor fell just short in a 30-23 thriller. Had it been able to pull that off – coming off the collapse at home to OU just a few weeks earlier – it would’ve been the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Even so, if you had told Bear fans at the end of the 1-11 season of 2017 that their team would have the puck on their stick with a chance for the CFP a few years later …
Okay, so it was still disappointing, and losing to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl didn’t help. Even so, it was a rise-from-the-ashes story for a team that didn’t get a whole lot of preseason love.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
Start with the head coach. Matt Rhule is apparently the next Bill Belichick, Vince Lombardi and Norman Dale all wrapped up into one new Carolina Panther head man. Getting Dave Aranda away from the defensive coordinator gig at LSU was a huge hire, though.
Several strong parts of last year’s team are gone including three excellent defensive backs, a few good linebackers, and in all, seven starters.
QB Charlie Brewer returns behind a fantastic offensive front, but there’s some work to be done on the skill parts. This will still be a very good team, but …
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2020 Baylor Football Schedule Analysis
11-1 and another appearance in the Big 12 Championship is a whole lot to ask for.
Playing Ole Miss will be interesting to start out the season, but the Big 12 slate is the problem.
At Oklahoma, at Texas, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at West Virginia.
Again, this is a strong enough team to be in the mix for the conference title, but to come up with the same magic and the same record against a tougher slate is asking for lighting to strike twice.
NEXT: After coming so close to the mountain top (and by rowing), Part 3 …
2. Minnesota Golden Gophers
2020 FInal Ranking
AP 10, Coaches 10
Final Record: 11-2
What Made 2019 Special?
It was the best season of Minnesota football in over 50 years.
Okay, okay, so the Gophers got to roll on through a schedule full of light and fluffy clouds to get to 8-0, but with the world watching to see if they were for real, they came through with a win over Penn State.
They had the world there for the taking. They had Wisconsin in TCF Bank for a shot at Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. Win the last two, and the impossible would’ve happened with a trip to the College Football Playoff.
Instead, they got roasted by the Badgers in the snow, but a thrilling win over Auburn in a blast of an Outback Bowl capped a phenomenal year that defied expectations.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
There’s a lot to like about the returning Gopher team.
The offensive line should be the best in the Big Ten outside of what’s going to happen in Columbus and Madison. QB Tanner Morgan is back along with gamebreaking WR Rashod Bateman, and the rest of the skill parts are strong.
There’s no replacing S Antoine Winfield Jr., and the front seven combination of Carter Coughlin and Kamal Martin will be missed. In all, seven starters are gone off the D, but that’s not the issue …
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2020 Minnesota Football Schedule Analysis
Don’t gloss over the massive breaks Minnesota had last year in the schedule.
It survived three poor non-conference performances because it played three poor non-conference teams. This year, instead of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern, it plays BYU, Florida Atlantic and Tennessee Tech. That’s not much of an upgrade, but the Big Ten schedule is a whole lot more difficult.
There’s still no Ohio State, but the Gophers play Michigan and go to Michigan State, and they have to travel to Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Again, as the theme of the piece goes, all it takes is one extra loss to take a wee step back, and the same goes for …
NEXT: Good luck doing THAT again … ever
1. LSU Tigers
2020 FInal Ranking
AP 1, Coaches 1
Final Record: 15-0
What Made 2019 Special?
You mean besides going 15-0, beating Alabama at Alabama, Texas at Texas, blowing out Georgia in the SEC Championship, obliterating Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinal, handing Clemson its first loss in two seasons for the national championship – in New Orleans, by the way – all while guided by a landslide Heisman-winning quarterback?
No team in the history of college football had ever come up with a better season, and now LSU is supposed to come close to repeating THAT?!
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Returning Talent
In the best division in college football, just a little bit of a glitch is enough to be an also-ran.
Only 16 LSU Tigers were invited to the NFL Combine. No biggie.
It’s LSU, so even if there isn’t another Joe Burrow, a new quarterback will rise up. A new crop of ultra-talented players are about to step in for the past group of ultra-talented players, but there are wholesale changes to be made.
The coaching staff will be fine despite the loss of passing game coordinator Joe Brady (Carolina Panthers) and star defensive coordinator Dave Aranda (Baylor), but there are a whole lot of moving parts to the 2020 version of the Tigers.
Why 2020 Will Be A Bit Worse: Schedule
– 2020 LSU Football Schedule Analysis
Considering Texas and Ole Miss come to Baton Rouge, things aren’t so bad over the first part of the season.
The defending national champs will welcome in with open arms Alabama in early November, host Mississippi State, and …
At Florida, at Auburn, at Texas A&M.
LSU can and will be tremendous again, even with all of the talent losses. But ask 2019 Alabama what a 10-2 regular season feels like.
