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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Sian Filcher

20,000 deaths in UK from coronavirus would be "good outcome" says chief scientific adviser

Chief scientific adviser to the government Sir Patrick Vallance has said that the UK could expect 20,000 deaths from coronavirus - which would be a 'good outcome' for the country.

Sir Patrick said that the figure is 'still horrible', but compared to the death rate of seasonal flu.

He told the Health Committee: "That is the hope, that we can get it down to that [20,000].

"To put that into perspective, every year in seasonal flu, the number of deaths is thought to be about 8,000 excess deaths.

"If we can get this down to numbers of 20,000 and below, that's a good outcome in terms of where we would have hoped to get to with this outbreak.

"That's still horrible, that's still an enormous amount of deaths and an enormous pressure on the health service."

Sir Patrick also added that the effects of social distancing and new rules set out by the government should be seen in two or three weeks.

Based on modelling being used by the government, he said that it was a 'reasonable ballpark' for the UK to currently have around 55,000 cases.

Coronavirus - the latest news headlines on March 17

As of 9am on 17 March 2020, 1,950 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in  the UK.

The news comes after a new document from the London Imperial College Covid-19 team, which has been assisting the government, predicted a death toll of around 250,000.

The advisers said that even with the 'social distancing' plans set out by the government, the health system will be 'overwhelmed many times over'.

The stark warning came after Boris Johnson on Monday unveiled unprecedented peacetime measures to try to control the spread of Covid-19.

In the first of his daily No 10 press conferences, the Prime Minister called on people to stay away from pubs, clubs and theatres and to avoid all non-essential contacts and travel.

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