The Steelers got the answer they’d been looking for all offseason this past Saturday when Aaron Rodgers agreed to terms on a contract that will make him their quarterback for the 2026 season. The 42-year-old will reportedly sign a one-year pact with Pittsburgh that includes a base salary of $22 million and, with incentives, is worth up to $25 million. Not too shabby for the four-time MVP.
Rodgers’s decision to re-sign with Pittsburgh comes nearly four months after the team expected one from him, but nevertheless gives them an immediate starting option in a quarterback room currently manned by veterans Mason Rudolph and Will Howard as well as third-round pick Drew Allar.
Despite making the postseason in Year 1 with Rodgers under center, the Steelers and head coach Mike Tomlin parted ways this offseason and are turning over a new leaf in 2026. With that, here are two reasons why Pittsburgh will once again find itself in the playoffs next season…
…and three why they won’t.
Why Rodgers will lead the Steelers to the playoffs in 2026
He worked with Mike McCarthy in Green Bay
Rodgers’s return to the Steelers reunites him with head coach Mike McCarthy, who he spent 13 seasons playing under in Green Bay. With Rodgers under center and McCarthy in charge, the Packers posted a 100-57-1 regular-season record in games the quarterback started, notched eight 10-plus win seasons and won Super Bowl XLV to cap the 2010 campaign. Rodgers, meanwhile, developed into one of the greatest quarterbacks the league has ever seen, leading the league in passer rating four times, winning two of his four MVP awards in 2011 and ’14 and helping Green Bay lead the NFL in points per game twice.
There’s a clear chemistry between the two that Pittsburgh can only hope will be jump-started in 2026.
The Steelers’ roster is in win-now shape
Despite Rodgers’s return hanging in the balance for much of the offseason, Pittsburgh still operated in win-now mode with their roster transactions. Not only did they make sure that franchise legend Cam Hayward would remain with the team in 2026, but they also signed safeties Jaquan Brisker and Darnell Savage, cornerback Jamel Dean and defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day on defense while trading for wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. from the Colts.
Moreover, wide receiver DK Metcalf, tight end Pat Friermuth, linebackers Nick Herbig, Alex Highsmith, Patrick Queen and T.J. Watt, and safety Jalen Ramsey are all returning in 2026 as well. The Steelers have a clear, win-now foundation to work with.
Why Rodgers won’t lead the Steelers to the playoffs in 2026
Their schedule is a gauntlet
The Steelers are tied for the ninth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026 according to Sports Illustrated, and the way it lines up for them isn’t exactly favorable.
After their Week 7 trip across the pond to face the Saints in Paris, Pittsburgh returns home for what should be a winnable matchup vs. the Browns before heading into a cozy Week 9 bye. Then, however, over the course of the final nine weeks of the season, they’ll face five playoff teams from 2025 in the Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars and Panthers—as well as the Ravens twice, who have the highest projected win total in the NFL next season.
Not exactly an easy road back to the playoffs for the Steelers.
He’s 42 … and has missed a decent portion of the offseason program
While Rodgers does have the aforementioned familiarity with McCarthy and the offense he’ll run in Pittsburgh, he’s also likely to have some rust to shake off before the season starts.
That’s not to say that Rodgers hasn’t kept himself in shape, by any means, but the Steelers’ voluntary offseason program began almost a month ago on April 20, which puts the 42-year-old behind the eight ball compared to all of his teammates that we mentioned above. All the while having Rudolph, Howard and Allar have spent valuable time getting acclimated without him in the quarterback room.
Rodgers did sign just in time for the start of OTAs, which begin Monday, May 18. We’ll see if that ends up being enough of a runway for him to be all systems go by Week 1.
The AFC should be back to normal in 2026
The most obvious reason why the Steelers may not return to the playoffs in 2026 is the fact that the AFC will, in all likelihood, return to form.
Last season saw the Chiefs miss the postseason for the first time since 2014, the Ravens fall short for the first time since ’21 and the Bills relinquish control of the AFC East for the first time since ’19. Meanwhile, the Broncos won the AFC West, the Jaguars turned in a 13–4 campaign, and the Patriots put together a 10-win turnaround that saw them return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the days of Tom Brady.
Needless to say, it was a wonky conference in 2025. That said, with Baltimore undergoing a refresh with Jesse Minter at the helm—and wild-card threats in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow set for full recoveries—the road to a postseason berth for the Steelers in 2026 will be increasingly difficult, even with a four-time MVP under center.
More NFL from Sports Illustrated
- Albert Breer’s Takeaways: Aaron Rodgers’s Return Comes With a Revitalized Passion for the Game Itself
- NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for 2026, Done the Right Way
- Tom Brady Found Himself on the Runway in His New Retirement Side Gig
- Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy Will Have Unique QB-Coach Reunion With Steelers
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2 Reasons Why Aaron Rodgers Will Lead Steelers to the Playoffs in 2026, and 3 Why He Won’t.
