Hold your fire.
Signing 2020 Jimmy Graham to a 2015 Jimmy Graham contract — or any contract — seems to be Ryan Pace’s latest fireable offense as the Bears’ general manager — after trading up for Mitch Trubisky, signing Mike Glennon, drafting Adam Shaheen and cutting Robbie Gould.
Maybe it’s the cumulative effect of those prior moves, but signing a 33-year-old, declining former Pro Bowl player to a two-year, $16 million deal hasn’t just raised eyebrows, it’s elicited a particularly caustic response from disgruntled Bears fans and other observers, who are wondering again, ‘What was Pace thinking?’ Flog him!
I don’t quite share their ire. It’s a tight end, a position of desperate need that not surprisingly has led to a desperate measure — the hope that a former All-Pro player can upgrade a position of need and just maybe have a career renaissance, even if it’s a minor uptick.
The latter is a stretch, no doubt about it. But even at 33, Graham upgrades the position, if only because of the low bar. And if Graham becomes a complement to Trey Burton and not a replacement, his value might end up being better than it appears now.
Signing Graham is questionable but hardly a reason to storm Halas Hall in protest, given the Bears’ tight end situation. This essentially is a one-year, $9 million deal with a $6 million cap hit for 2020, with a $3 million buyout for 2021, according to an ESPN report on the contract details.
No doubt that the days of overpaying to upgrade a key position — as Pace did with edge rusher Pernell McPhee in 2015 — should be over. When former Colts tight end Eric Ebron signed a two-year, $12 million contract with the Steelers, the “What was Pace thinking?” meter went haywire. Pace paid more money for the declining, 33-year-old Graham than the Steelers did for the 26-year-old Ebron — only a year removed from a 13-touchdown season in 2018.
Then again, Pace is only a year removed from a 12-4, Executive-of-the-Year season in 2018, so you have to be careful with those kinds of qualifiers. So maybe it’s best to let the dust settle on this one and see what Pace’s plan actually is. Ebron’s availability notwithstanding, Pace’s options weren’t great to begin with. His make-or-break mission for 2020 is to get the quarterback right — and a productive tight end is only one part of that equation. There will be plenty of time to pile on when we see the actual results.
2. Nick Foles has been so good in spot duty three times in his career — in 2013, 2017 and 2018 with the Eagles — the Bears really need to give him a chance to beat out Trubisky in training camp. His upside almost demands a 50-50 split of offseason and training-camp reps. And with the Bears in win-now mode based on the signing of 30-and-over veterans, it no longer would be a surprise if Foles got that chance.
3. Though Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are enticing names, Foles still seems like the best quarterback the Bears could have acquired for their current dynamic — hoping Trubisky takes a huge step toward franchise-quarterback status, but having a capable back-up familiar with Matt Nagy’s system in case that doesn’t happen.
4. The allure of Teddy Bridgewater is a little mystifying. Bridgewater was 5-0 in place of Drew Brees last year with the Saints, but while he was productive, he was hardly prolific operating in one of the most well-established offenses in the league. His 103.7 passer rating in those five starts ranked 11th in the NFL in that span. But his yards-per-attempt was below 7.0 in three of them.
The last time Bridgewater was in an offense closer to what the Bears had last year, he was 23rd in the league in passer rating (88.7) with the Vikings in 2015 — with the best running back in the league. You can’t blame Bridgewater if he demanded the starting job. But it’s hard to blame the Bears if they refused to promise that.
5. The List — Players acquired too late by the Bears: 1. Orlando Pace, LT (2009); 2. Jared Allen, DE (2014); 3. Howard Mudd, RG (1969); 4. Antrel Rolle, S (2015); 5. Santonio Holmes, WR (2014); 6. Nemiah Wilson, CB (1975); 7. Dave Krieg, QB (1996); 8. Bryan Cox, MLB (1996); 9. Lee Roy Caffey, LB (1970); 10. Adam Archuleta, S (2007).
6. With the issue of player safety at a peak, a 17th game should have been a line-in-the-sand deal-breaker for the NFL Players Association in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. In gaining a greater share of league revenue, the players lost a lot of leverage on the player-safety issue. They are now part of that problem, because the sport has reached a point where it is safer to not play the game than play it.
Risk-avoidance in football is at an all-time high — players don’t participate in bowl games, NFL preseason games and “meaningless” Week 17 games because the injury risk is too great. Training-camp and practice regulations have been altered to avoid injuries — fewer padded practices, no two-a-days, mandated days off. And now they want to play a 17th game? That might end up being a pig in a poke more than better deal for the players.
7. The odd-number schedule — which could happen as soon as the 2021 season — shows just how desperate both sides were to get this deal. Since the NFL established a universal 12-game schedule in the 1930s, the league has had an even amount of regular-season games — increasing to 14 games in 1961 and to 16 games in 1978 — so every team gets the same number of home and away games.
A 17-game schedule is inherently unwieldy — with some teams getting nine home games and others getting eight. Will fans cry foul if their team loses a playoff spot or home-field seed because the Patriots, Saints, Seahawks, Packers or Chiefs had an extra home game?
The NFL went from 12 to 14 to 16, but couldn’t go to 18. You know they’ll get there eventually. It’s pretty clear NFL owners don’t have a breaking point. The players should have nipped this in the bud.
8. While the roles of Foles and Graham have been hot-button issues, where Robert Quinn fits in Chuck Pagano’s 3-4 defense can’t be overlooked. Quinn has excelled as a 4-3 defensive end and felt out of place in the Rams’ 3-4. Under Vic Fangio and Pagano, the Bears’ 3-4 has been pretty versatile. But if they plan on Quinn — a more dedicated edge rusher — dropping into coverage as much as Leonard Floyd did, the transition will be worth watching.
9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week Award: Linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski signed a three-year, $21 million contract ($13.5 million guaranteed) with the Oakland Raiders in the first week of free agency — a well-deserved raise and promotion.
Kwiatkoski, a fourth-round draft pick, was well-scouted by the Bears, well-developed by the coaching staff in Fangio’s and Pagano’s defense. And he was better than expected every time he was put in a starter’s role — an impact player at times instead of just a capable fill-in. Though Danny Trevathan turns 30 on Tuesday and has had injury issues, it’s hard to argue with the Bears’ decision to prioritize Trevathan (three years, $21.75 million, $14 million guaranteed) over Kwiatkoski.
10. Bear-ometer (9-7) — vs. Buccaneers (W); at Falcons (L); vs. Packers (L); at Titans (W); vs. Vikings (W); at Panthers (W); vs. Colts (L); at Jaguars (W); at Packers (L); vs. Lions (W); vs. Texans (L); at Lions (W); vs. Saints (L); at Rams (W); vs. Giants (W); at Vikings (L).
(Note: While the Bears’ 2020 opponents are set, the actual schedule is expected to be announced in April.)
