The Bears’ latest debacle against the Packers has ignited a flurry of calls for regime change at Halas Hall, but don’t get your hopes up.
By the eye test, change is in order. The Bears were fixated on improving an offense that regressed in 2019 — revamping the coaching staff, signing Nick Foles, re-building the tight end room — and they are even worse in 2020. Three seasons after hiring Matt Nagy to build a 21st-century offense, the Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards and 30th in offensive points.
And while there should be more patience with NFL head coaches and not less, this is still a tough call — because Nagy’s offense shows virtually no signs of hope. This offense looks like it was put together by somebody who lost the instructions.
And even if you think Nagy has been dealt a bad hand — with substandard quarterbacks and a poor offensive line — then it’s general manager Ryan Pace who has to go. The offensive breakdown is on him more than anyone. He drafted Mitch Trubisky. He signed Foles. He built the offensive line. And he hired Nagy. In his sixth season as GM and third season with his second head coach, the jury is filing in, and rather quickly.
Be that as it may, the Bears’ schedule could end up saving both Nagy and Pace. As bad as the Bears looked against the Packers, their schedule provides plenty of opportunity for a strong finish. Their next four opponents rank in the bottom 10 in total defense and points allowed — the Lions (29th/31st), Texans (30th/23rd), Vikings (24th/27th) and Jaguars (31st/30th).
The Lions just fired coach Matt Patricia and have lost four of their last five. And Trubisky has a 124.4 passer rating (12 touchdowns, one interception) against that defense, albeit with Patricia calling the plays.
The Texans just lost wide receiver Will Fuller and cornerback Bradley Roby to PED suspensions. The Vikings are 2-4 at home. The Jaguars likely will still be in the Trevor Lawrence derby. Even the Packers could be coasting into the playoffs in Week 17.
So the worst-case scenario for many Bears fans exists — that the 5-6 Bears are headed toward an 8-8 or even 9-7 season that doesn’t elicit change, doesn’t put them in the playoffs and doesn’t leave them with a top 10 pick. With fans still not allowed in Soldier Field, there won’t be no-show counts to make a statement. And there likely won’t be the overt dysfunction that certainly played a part in the relatively quick hooks for GM Phil Emery and coach Marc Trestman in 2014.
You never know what they’re thinking at Halas Hall. Team president Ted Phillips said after last season he expected a contender in 2020 (“I think we should be able to turn it around.”). But he also values the Pace-Nagy relationship, which presumably is still strong. More than likely, Bears fans will be disappointed with the outcome.
2. It seems like folly after the 41-25 loss to the Packers, but a late-season run to the playoffs isn’t that unreasonable. If the team with the best record wins every game in the final five weeks of the NFL season, the Bears would only need to beat the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium to make the playoffs.
And that allows for a loss to the Packers in Week 17. In that scenario, the Rams (11-5), Buccaneers (11-5) and Bears (9-7) would be the NFC’s wild-card teams.
So if the Bears could regain their early season form when they started 5-1, it’s not like it would take a series of huge upsets to clear a path to the playoffs.
And as bad as the Bears are right now, never underestimate the mediocrity of the NFL. Even that 2014 team rallied after the horrendous 55-14 loss to the Packers to beat the Vikings and Buccaneers the next two weeks.
3. Then again, the Bears haven’t been good at sneaking into the playoffs. In fact, they have not made the playoffs as a wild-card team since 1994 — the only team in the NFL that has not played a road playoff game in the last 25 seasons. Since making the playoffs as a wild-card team in 1994 under Dave Wannstedt, it’s either been a breakout division-title-winning season or bust — 13-3 (2001), 11-5 (2005), 13-3 (2006), 11-5 (2010) and 12-4 (2018).
4. This week’s indictment of the Bears’ offense: With two late, futile touchdowns against the Packers, the Bears have scored 10 touchdowns on offense — nearly half their season total of 21 — after falling behind by three scores or more.
In fact, the Bears have scored just two touchdowns in 26 offensive drives with the lead this season — third worst in the NFL behind the Eagles and Jaguars.
5a. Aaron Rodgers’ 132.3 passer rating in Sunday night’s game not only was the highest against the Bears’ defense since 2015, it was the fifth consecutive 100+ rating against the Bears — following Kirk Cousins (100.7), Ryan Tannehill (104.9), Drew Brees (109.8) and Jared Goff (108.1). That’s more than the Bears defense allowed in the previous 39 games under Nagy with Vic Fangio/Chuck Pagano (four).
In fact, it’s the first time the Bears have allowed five consecutive passer ratings of 100+ (or even 90+, for that matter) since 1998 — Tony Banks (104.5), Charlie Batch (131.6), Chris Chandler (124.3), Trent Dilfer (100.9) and Randall Cunningham (131.6).
5b. It’s also a sign of a downturn in the Bears’ defense. In their first six games, starting quarterbacks had a 73.5 passer rating (four touchdowns, five interceptions) against the Bears. In the last five games, they’ve had a 117.2 rating (12 touchdowns, one interception).
6. The last time the Bears played with defensive linemen Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols and Roy Robertson-Harris at full strength, they held the Packers to 213 total yards and 47 rushing yards (2.1 avg.) and sacked Aaron Rodgers five times with seven pressures in a 10-3 loss at Soldier Field in the 2019 opener.
It all starts up front. Only Nichols played against the Packers on Sunday night, when the Packers had 393 total yards, 182 rushing yards (4.7) and did not sack or even pressure Rodgers in a 41-25 loss.
7. Bits and pieces: David Montgomery’s 57-yard run was the Bears second run of 50 or more yards in Nagy’s three seasons. The Bears had five in John Fox’s three seasons, all by Jordan Howard (69, 57, 52, 50 and 50). … Cairo Santos has made 31 consecutive kicks (15 field goals, 16 PATs) after a field goal and three PATs vs. the Packers … The Bears (20-of-20) are one of six teams that have been perfect on PATs this season. … Teams that fired their head coach this season are 2-0 in their first game under the interim coach — the 0-4 Texans beat the Jaguars 30-14; the 0-5 Falcons beat the Vikings 40-23 on the road. ... The Colts’ Trey Burton (3) and the Dolphins’ Adam Shaheen (3) have as many combined touchdowns as the Bears’ Jimmy Graham (5) and Cole Kmet (1). …. Excluding garbage points, the Bears have now scored 20 points or fewer in 28 of 44 games under Nagy.
8. Malik Willis Watch: The Liberty junior quarterback threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 63 yards (9.0 avg.) and a touchdown in a 45-0 rout of UMass. Willis has completed 151-of-236 passes (64.0%) for 2,040 yards, 20 touchdowns and four interceptions for a 161.2 rating. He also has rushed for 807 yards and 10 touchdown on 120 carries (6.7 avg.).
9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Jaguars quarterback Mike Glennon, making his first start since being benched with the Bears in 2017, completed 20-of-35 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 96.7 passer rating in a 27-25 loss to the Browns. Glennon’s best rating in four starts with the Bears was 86.8 (213 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions) in his debut against the Falcons.
10. Bear-ometer: 7-9 — vs. Lions (W); vs. Texans (L); at Vikings (L); at Jaguars (W); vs. Packers (XL).
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