An estimated 190,000 adults in the Hunter will not be fully vaccinated when the state starts reopening on Monday as COVID-19 cases in the region keep rising.
Hunter New England Health registered a record 93 cases on Wednesday, 92 of them in the Hunter region.
The new cases included 27 in Newcastle local government area, 26 in Lake Macquarie, 17 in Cessnock and 14 in Maitland.
The health district has recorded 515 cases in the past week while the NSW daily case load has fallen to 594, the lowest in 50 days.
But a Newcastle Herald data analysis shows about 190,000 Hunter people aged 16 and over will not be fully vaccinated by Monday.
About 342,000 will have received two doses but an estimated 53,000 will not be vaccinated at all.
Just over 60 per cent of over-16s in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie and 55 per cent across the rest of the region have received two jabs.
These ratios are likely to rise another six percentage points this week but remain one and two weeks behind the state rate of 67 per cent.
Across NSW, one in five people aged over 50 and one in six over 70 are not double vaccinated.
The fully vaccinated will be able to access pubs, cafes, gyms, salons and non-essential shops from Monday.
The government's Parliamentary Secretary for the Hunter, Taylor Martin, ruled out extending lockdowns in the Hunter, despite the relatively slow vaccine rollout.
"We made a commitment to residents that if they got vaccinated we would come out of lockdown," he said.
University of Newcastle laureate professor Nick Talley, the editor of the Medical Journal of Australia, said the staged reopening could be "more relaxed than perhaps we would hope".
"I do worry that people will believe it's freedom day and they can just do more or less what they wish, although there's supposed to be limits," he said.
"That could lead to a huge surge and then we'd be in the dilemma of locking down or not, which is the last thing anybody wants, including me.
"I think most medical professionals are worried because the hospital system up here could really get into strife if we get huge numbers suddenly after we open up."
Single-dose vaccination in the Hunter is running at the NSW average of 89 per cent.
"In every LGA in the Hunter more than 80 per cent of adults have had a first dose, meaning they are locked in to having their second one soon," Mr Martin said.
Professor Talley expected about 10 per cent of adults to remain unvaccinated.
"All of those people with no protection are putting themselves in the front line for risk, and some of them will get sick and some will be in hospital," he said.
"All I can say is run out and get the jab if you haven't already, because it's going to be considered an individual responsibility going forward rather than a government responsibility.
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