19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 6. Which five teams have the potential to become major surprises?
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19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. Power 5 Potential Disappointments
They’re the teams we don’t see coming.
Who had Kentucky doing much of anything last year?
Absolutely no one thought Pitt was going to win the ACC Coastal, and who besides Pat Fitzgerald picked Northwestern to win the Big Ten West?
These teams probably won’t win their respective conferences – or even a division title – but they’ll almost certainly be better than the predictions.
And the Power Five programs that could and should be the biggest surprises are …
ACC: Louisville
Lamar Jackson glossed over a whole lot of issues for a few years, but he wasn’t the reason why the defense fell off the map last season.
The Cardinal D was the worst in the nation at stopping offenses on third downs, the offensive line was non-existent, and everyone who wanted to run the ball had few problems coming up with massive gashes.
Really, how bad was the defense?
It allowed 51 points or more seven times and six times in the last seven games.
It’s not fair to say the team quit. The back part of the schedule – at Clemson, at Syracuse, NC State and Kentucky – was big bag of nasty. In all, the Cardinals played nine bowl teams, Florida State, four teams that finished with ten wins or more, and Alabama and Clemson.
But there’s hope for a bounceback season for a program that won eight games or more for five straight years before 2018. There’s a whole lot of experience coming back, there’s a breath of fresh air with new head coach Scott Satterfield, and the schedule is … tough. It’s not going to be easy, but the Cardinals won’t be a pushover.
There’s still a question about the talent level and whether or not it can rise up and produce, but at least Satterfield and the new staff have options to play around with.
Starting out against Notre Dame won’t help, but Eastern Kentucky and at WKU follow. Playing at Florida State, at Miami, at NC State, at Kentucky, and Clemson will keep this from being an amazing season, but expect a four-win improvement to get to a bowl game again after missing out for the first time since 2009.
NEXT: Big Ten Potential Surprise
Big Ten: Illinois
At some point this whole thing is going to work under Lovie Smith.
He’s forced young players into the system all across the board during his tenure, and now there’s a good mix of decent veterans, depth, and enough talented parts to finally turn a corner.
The quarterback situation has to improve, but the lines are as good as they’ve been in the Smith era, and in all, ten starters return on defense.
The experience has to translate into production, though.
The Fighting Illini were dead last in the Big Ten in total D – allowing 508 yards and 39 points per game – but the running game worked, and again, there’s a whole lot of experience.
Even with all of the problems and issues, Illinois was 4-8 with a total gag of a loss to USF. This year, the team should be good enough to be two wins better. Consistency will be the key for a team that hung up 55 points in a win over Minnesota and got roasted by Iowa 63-0 just two weeks later.
A hot start is a must with Akron, at UConn, and Eastern Michigan – blowing off the upset win over Purdue last year – to kick things off before hosting Nebraska. Throw in a home date against Rutgers, and hope for a few upsets along the way, and there’s a decent chance for the first winning season since 2011.
NEXT: Big 12 Potential Disappointment
Big 12: Oklahoma State
It sort of got blown off as last season went on, but the Cowboys needed to scramble just to go bowling.
They were fun, exciting, and maddeningly inconsistent at times – scoring just 17 points against Texas Tech and 12 against Kansas State, losing both – with a thrilling victory over Texas the midst of a rough run.
It took a wild win over West Virginia to get bowl eligible, and they took out Missouri in the Liberty Bowl to finish with a winning season for the 13th straight year.
This year’s team won’t have to work so hard.
The receiving corps will be among the best in a loaded Big 12, four starters return to the offensive line, and the secondary – possibly the most important part in a pass happy conference – returns almost intact.
The offense will be able to keep up with anyone, it’ll be balanced, and it’ll get time to tune up with at Oregon State, McNeese State and at Tulsa to kick things off. In all, five of the first six games are against teams that didn’t go bowling, and there’s only one trip away from Oklahoma in November.
Don’t be stunned if the Cowboys find their way into the Big 12 Championship.
NEXT: Pac-12 Potential Surprise
Pac-12: UCLA
It might seem like the first season under Chip Kelly was an anomaly for a program as solid as UCLA, but there needed to be a bottoming-out redo of a season.
The Bruins haven’t come up with a winning season since 2016, but the 3-9 season under Kelly seemed a bit different. There wasn’t a crazy playing style that seemed to be ten steps ahead of everyone else. There weren’t the explosions of points to take over games and take away the will of the opponents.
There were three wins. But one of them was against USC, and all three came after mid-October as the team played better and better.
Close games are always a part of the deal, but UCLA lost three games by a touchdown or less over the last eight outings as the offense picked up its production.
This year, both lines are still going to be works in progress, but the skill parts are in place, the experience is there across the board, and Kelly has brought in his types of players to do what he wants.
It could be a mad experiment that never works, or it could all start to kick in with a tremendous breakthrough campaign.
It’s not an easy schedule to deal with, but UCLA will at least double its win total from last year and go bowling.
NEXT: SEC Potential Surprise
SEC: Arkansas
It’s Year Two of the trying to make Arkansas football a whole lot better.
It was going to take some rebuilding and reworking under new head coach Chad Morris, but there are losing seasons, and there’s the first two-win campaign for the first time since 1952.
The Hog defense wasn’t anything great, but Morris is supposed to know and do offense, and the thing got worse and worse, closing out with six points in the final two games.
But this appears to be a year of transformation – if everyone can get back healthy after what turned out to be a rough spring session.
Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel and SMU transfer Ben Hicks improve the quarterback situation right out of the box, and the talent – again, as long as health in September isn’t an issue – is there to start boosting up the attack. That’s why Arkansas was on this list last year – the idea was that the Morris O would be enough to overcome other issues.
The defense isn’t going to be Alabama, but seven starters return, to go along with the seven expected back on the offensive side.
Playing Portland State, Colorado State and San Jose State early on should ensure more wins than last year, and facing WKU will double the total.
The goal, though, is for the offense to take off and be able to beat someone good when everything clicks the right way.
Hog fans might be ready for success on a consistent basis, but they’ll take a bowl appearance, which should be coming.
