19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 5. How do the Group of Five conferences rank going into the summer?
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19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. Power 5 Potential Disappointments
6. Power 5 Potential Surprises
As spring ball finishes up and we go into the abyss of the offseason before fall camp, here’s how each of the Group of Five conferences look as spring ball starts to wind down.
This might change come August, but for now, here’s the early ranking of the GOFers, starting with …
5. MAC
It’ll be a competitive season, but it’ll be a holding pattern year.
There are four new head coaches, and enough shaky coaching situations to cause a whole lot of drama. The big problem, though, is the lack of an alpha team to make America care.
Buffalo looked like a killer before last year began, but now it’s rebuilding time at the skill spots. There’s enough in place to be okay, but it won’t be as good, and neither will MAC champion Northern Illinois. New head man Thomas Hammock will bring the fire, but the lines have too many amazing parts to replace.
Toledo will go bowling, Western Michigan should be more explosive and should be good enough to finish with a winning season, and Ohio has the upside to be the star of the MAC East. However, all three teams will be fine, but not amazing.
The league needs the also-rans to step up and be interesting.
The Kent State FlashFast style of offense under second-year head man Sean Lewis has to be flashier and faster. Akron’s new head coach Tom Arth inherits enough on offense to bring an instant boost, and Bowling Green’s new head man, Scot Loeffler, will be in a whole lot of shootouts.
Can Jim McElwain turn around Central Michigan right away? The team isn’t as far off from being a factor again as last season might suggest. Eastern Michigan has to replace almost everyone of note on defense, and Ball State has to find the skill guys on offense to help out the experience on the other side.
NEXT: No. 4 Offseason Group of Five Conference
4. Sun Belt
Even with the big coaching losses, the top teams should still keep rolling on.
Appalachian State lost Scott Satterfield to Louisville, but new head man Eliah Drinkwitz walks into an amazing situation with loads of talent on both sides of the ball. The defending Sun Belt champs should flirt with ten wins, give North Carolina and South Carolina issues, and be the national team to generate plenty of attention.
Troy is going to have a few more issues after losing its coach Neal Brown to West Virginia. The O might need to find a little bit of pop, but the lines are going to be terrific and getting to ten wins again is an easy goal.
Start with those two, and the league has the stars the MAC is missing. The Sun Belt has the midsection to challenge, and with a coaching change at Texas State, the lower-level teams should improve a bit.
Georgia Southern will be a blast with another great option attack, and defending West champ Louisiana has a whole lot to would on around head coach Billy Napier. As long as Arkansas State can get quarterback production with Justice Hansen gone, it’ll push the Ragin’ Cajuns for the division title.
Best of all, ULM will be fun, South Alabama should be better in the second season under head coach Steve Campbell, and Georgia State should be better after a rough two-win season.
NEXT: No. 3 Offseason Group of Five Conference
3. Conference USA
Will there ever be a rainbow for the bottom teams in the league?
Even in Year Two under their respective new head coaches, UTEP and Rice don’t have a whole lot in the bag to be a whole lot better. UTSA doesn’t appear to be a world-beater, either, and Old Dominion and WKU are both going to be questionable.
However, all five of those teams should be at least a wee bit stronger after their rough 2018 seasons. If they’re anything but totally and completely miserable, the league could make a big boost up.
Southern Miss has a whole lot to like in the West with a fantastic-looking offense to go along with a veteran defense, but North Texas is going to continue to be a problem with yet another high-powered offense.
The Mean Green D will need some time, as will an entire UAB squad that has to undergo a massive rebuild. Both teams will be major factors in the division, but expect Louisiana Tech to push Southern Miss for a spot in the the Conference USA title.
The East will be even more fun, with FIU looking ready to rise up and rock even more under Butch Davis. Marshall will be right there in the mix, too, with a loaded offense that should be among the best in the conference.
Can Florida Atlantic rebound from a stunningly mediocre 2018? Yeah, considering the passing game will be better and Lane Kiffin has had three years to build. The Owls will be better, but Middle Tennessee will take a step back, even though it’ll still go bowling.
Now it’s up to the struggling teams from Texas to stop getting shoved around.
NEXT: No. 2 Offseason Group of Five Conference
No. 2 American Athletic
The best teams at the top are better than the teams in any of the other Group of Five leagues.
The ones in the middle are solid, and … the ones at the bottom drag down everyone else.
But UCF will be amazing again – even if it’s not unbeaten and screaming for a College Football Playoff spot – and Cincinnati in Luke Fickell’s third season won’t be all that far behind.
Temple and USF don’t need too many tweaks to push for a top two spot in the division, but the Bulls have to figure out how to win again under Charlie Strong, and the Owls have to get used to new head coach Rod Carey.
For the American Athletic Conference to matter, though – and for more people to take the UCFs and Cincinnatis seriously – there can’t be so many light scrimmages.
UConn has to find some semblance of a defense. There’s experience, but the Huskies had one of the worst Ds of all-time. East Carolina’s defense wasn’t anything great, either, but new head coach gets back enough veterans to hope for a decent year.
The West has its concerns at the bottom, too.
Navy has to wake up after its slumber after whatever that was last season – going 3-10 with the offense not working quite right – and Tulsa has to use its experience to get the offense back up and going again.
SMU should flirt with bowl eligibility, and Tulane should be a thrill ride with a potentially explosive attack. But the West will be about Memphis vs. Houston, with new Cougar head man Dana Holgorsen expected to take a good situation and make it party like it was Tom Herman back at the helm.
UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, USF, Temple, Tulane. Start there, and it’s a nice base of terrific teams, but for top-to-almost-bottom depth …
NEXT: No. 1 Offseason Group of Five Conference
1. Mountain West
San Jose State is the one team everyone else will see as the free space, but the offense will be better and the defense will …
Yeah, San Jose State is going to have issues again. But almost everyone else in the league looks better, stronger, and more interesting.
Defending champ Fresno State should take a step back after losing too much talent, but it’ll still be a player in the race for the West division. San Diego State, though, should be the star as long as the defensive front can quickly fill in some key pieces. If the Aztec O is just a wee bit better, get ready for a huge start with a relatively easy slate to kick things off.
Nevada is coming off a terrific step-forward season, Hawaii will be just as explosive, and yes, in Year 19 of UNLV Be Good chatter … UNLV will be good.
The West will be fun. The Mountain will be better.
The Boise State date in Jacksonville to play Florida State might mean everything to the league. Win that, and the Broncos will be front and center in the race for the Group of Five’s automatic New Year’s Six game bid.
But the rest of the division won’t be a pushover.
New/old Utah State head coach Gary Andersen inherits a wonderful team, with QB Jordan Love and the offense good enough to be every bit as explosive as it was under new Texas Tech head man Matt Wells.
Air Force gets back almost everyone and should at least flirt with a winning season, and if Wyoming can finally figure out how to score, it will get to seven wins and a bowl.
Colorado State took a year off, and now it should be right back to its 7-6 ways, and watch out for New Mexico if a quarterback can stay healthy. The Lobos aren’t going to win the league, but the offensive system has the potential to be sneaky-good.
And if San Jose State finally finds something that works, there might not be any weeks off in the Mountain West season.
