19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 3. who are the top Heisman candidates … besides the obvious stars?
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19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. Power 5 Potential Disappointments
6. Power 5 Potential Surprises
5. Ranking Group of Five Conferences
4. Ranking The Power Five Conferences
Who thought Baker Mayfield was going to win the Heisman two years ago? Okay, maybe, but who thought Kyler Murray was going to give Oklahoma back-to-back winners?
Did you see Lamar Jackson coming? How about Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, or Jameis Winston?
That’s the crazy part of about the Heisman race – the favorites don’t always play up to the hype. That doesn’t mean they’re not good, but to win the most prestigious individual award in American sports, you need to 1) put up ridiculous numbers, 2) do it when everyone is watching in at least one or two big games, and 3) preferably be the reason a team is in a conference title chase and possibly in the mix for the College Football Playoff.
The five favorites who fit all three parts of the criteria are obvious. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, Georgia QB Jake Fromm, Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts, and Oregon QB Justin Herbert. The odds are strong that one of them will win it, but that’s boring.
To use a reference that only people over the age of death will get, it’s like Wheel of Fortune giving the R, S, T, L, N and E in the final puzzle. Those are a given, now it’s time to figure out the other pieces.
Here are five great players who’ll be in the mix, and five more who might just be in the race, too, starting with the long ball …
5. QB Kellen Mond, Jr. Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher quarterbacks produce.
Deondre Francois might have had a rough run lately – for reasons not necessarily on the field – but he also stepped in as a freshman at Florida State and put up 3,350 yards and 20 scores. Jameis Winston did okay for himself, and before him, EJ Manuel ended up being the first quarterback taken in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Junior Kellen Mond might be a long, long, long shot, but he’ll have the chances to rise up immediately in the Heisman process.
He threw for over 3,100 yards in Fisher’s first season at A&M with 24 touchdown passes, to go along with 474 rushing yards and seven scores.
And now he knows what he’s doing.
TE Jace Sternberger might be a Green Bay Packer, but almost all of the other top targets from last season are back – they were almost all sophomores – and they know what they’re doing, too.
The best part about this long, long, long shot is the opportunity. If A&M can beat Clemson on September 7th – Mond threw for 430 yards in the 28-26 loss last year – then here’s your front-runner, at least in the first month of the year.
Auburn and Alabama have to come to College Station. If Mond is amazing against those two – to go along with the Clemson showdown – it’ll come down to road games at Georgia and LSU late to possibly end up in New York.
Who else is that long, long, long shot who should have several high-profile games to provide the opportunity to shine?
Alternative … WR Laviska Shenault, Jr. Colorado
He was right there in the first part of last year before getting hurt. He finished with 86 catches for 1,011 yards and six scores, and he ran for five touchdowns. Blow up against Nebraska on September 7th, and he’s on the radar with all the big Pac-12 games ahead.
NEXT: No. 4 Not Obvious Hesiman Candidate
4. RB D’Andre Swift, Jr. Georgia
Jake Fromm will be the signature star and the top pro prospect going into the season, but he’s not going to have the raw numbers of a typical Heisman-caliber quarterback.
He’ll be a winner, and he’ll be terrific, but to blow voters away in the Heisman race, the bar has been set ridiculously high with all-time great statistical seasons put up by Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray.
Georgia will be national title-caliber team, and the opportunities will be there for someone to take the spotlight – and that’s where D’Andre Swift steps in. He doesn’t have to carry the offense with Fromm at the helm, but he might.
He averaged 6.4 yards per carry with 1,049 yards and ten scores despite splitting time with Elijah Holyfield. With good hands, he caught 32 passes with three scores, and he’s poised and ready to do even more.
Every bit the pro prospect that Fromm is – they’ll both likely go in the top ten overall in 2020 – he’s got everything in place to build the Heisman campaign to where it needs to be.
With Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State to start, Swift can build up the numbers, and then comes the showdown against Notre Dame. There are more than enough big SEC games after that to make a push.
Who else is that all-around star running back playmaker on a top team who’ll be in the spotlight?
Alternative … RB JK Dobbins, Jr. Ohio State
Justin Fields might be the star who’ll get the attention, but it’s Dobbins with the upside to put up a more consistent season with the numbers to match. He ran for 1,053 yards and ten scores, and he caught 26 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Now he doesn’t have to split time with Mike Weber.
NEXT: No. 3 Not Obvious Heisman Candidate
3. QB Sam Ehlinger, Jr. Texas
Okay, so he’s sort of obvious after what he did against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but he’s still a few clicks below the Tagovailoas, Lawrences and Fromms of the Heisman world.
More of a Face of the Franchise type of candidate, he’s not going to throw for a million yards, but he was hardly bad last season with close to 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns and just five picks.
Oh yeah, and he ran for 482 yards and turned into Tebow Lite with 16 tough guy scores. With Collin Johnson blowing off the NFL Draft to return as the star of a good receiving corps, and with enough on the O line to help barrel for the hard yards, Ehlinger should be able to take his stats to another level.
He’s vocal, he’ll a media presence all season long, and he’ll get his shot early on the take his campaign into hyperdrive with a date against LSU.
If he’s amazing against the Tigers, and if he can lead the Longhorns to a win over Oklahoma, the thing might be his by mid-October.
Who else could be a veteran team leader whose worth will go beyond the stats – but the stats will be good, too?
Alternative … QB Shea Patterson, Sr. Michigan
Michigan – considering it’s Michigan – might just fly a bit under the radar after the way last season ended. However, the Wolverines are going to a quicker passing offense, the receivers are there, and Patterson is a veteran triggerman coming off a 2,600-yard, 22 touchdown season. The stats will be there, but all that matters is going 11-1 with a win over Ohio State on the way to the Big Ten Championship.
NEXT: No. 2 Not Obvious Heisman Candidate
2. RB Travis Etienne, Jr. Clemson
If it’s possible to have a quiet 1,658-yard, 24 touchdown season, Etienne pulled it off.
The rise of Trevor Lawrence was amazing, and the historically great defensive front four was the star, but Etienne was the one who made it all go.
How do you help a true freshman quarterback? Have a back who can catch, and can average more than eight yards per carry.
How do you survive a well-publicized quarterback change, and the get down to a third-stringer after an injury strikes? Have a back who can run 27 times for 203 yards and three touchdowns like Etienne did against Syracuse.
The slippery-quick force ran for two touchdowns or more in eight games and hit the 100-yard mark eight times in the last 13 games.
Lawrence is the favorite from the Tigers in the Heisman chase, but watch out for Etienne to flirt with 2,000 yards and start to get more recognition. The high-profile games are there early on against Texas A&M and on the road against Syracuse, and the rest of the slate isn’t all that bad.
What other running back will put up massive numbers, but will likely come up short because he’s a running back?
Alternative … RB Jonathan Taylor, Jr. Wisconsin
He might be one of the odds-on favorites as he stays on the path to potentially be the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher – if he stays for another year, but the offensive line is replacing four starters, 2) there might be a true freshman at quarterback, and 3) Taylor fumbles way too much in the red zone. If none of those three things are an issue, he’ll be in New York in early December.
NEXT: No. 1 Not Obvious Heisman Candidate
1. QB Adrian Martinez, Soph. Nebraska
The general belief was that time logged in was the only thing missing.
Martinez was the hand-picked quarterback by Scott Frost to run the Nebraska offense, and he was thrown to the wolves as a true freshman in a tough situation. There were plenty of square pegs in round holes for the Huskers, and it was a true transitional period, but Martinez kept on improving.
There were true freshman mistakes, but he still completed 65% of his passes for 2,617 yards and 17 touchdowns with eight picks, and he ran for 629 yards and eight scores.
Now that he knows what he’s doing, on the high side, there’s a chance he becomes Johnny Manziel when it comes to explosion, magic, and total yards. It’s not insane to suggest he could push past 3,500 passing yards and hit 1,000 rushing yards, and it’s not crazy to think there could be a Manziel vs. Alabama – or Lamar Jackson vs. Florida State – moment that takes over the Heisman race.
He can get on the map with a big first four weeks to build up the stats – including in a high-profile date at Colorado – before hosting Ohio State. Rip up the Buckeyes, and it’s Game On for the Heisman. He almost did it last year – throwing for 266 yards and a score, and running for 72 yards and two touchdowns – in the 36-31 loss.
And then it all ties into the team. The 2018 Huskers left five wins – at least – on the table, but a more mature team comes up with around an 8-4 season. That’s what the Huskers will do this year.
What other quarterback will put up massive numbers on a good team that probably won’t be in the College Football Playoff hunt?
Alternative … QB Kelly Bryant, Sr. Missouri
There’s a reason he went to Missouri, and there’s a reason he’s staying there after the NCAA handed down a bowl ban for this year. Bryant wants to develop into an NFL quarterback and put up a big season in the high-powered Tiger passing attack.
Get ready for him to turn it loose and look the part, and he has the schedule to make things interesting in the Heisman race. If he starts strong – beating West Virginia, South Carolina and Kentucky – he’ll be set up for the showdown at Georgia. The Tigers get a week off to prepare, and he’s amazing in an upset, a finalist spot is possible.
