19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 2. Five nutty predictions that just might be right
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. Power 5 Potential Disappointments
6. Power 5 Potential Surprises
5. Ranking Group of Five Conferences
4. Ranking The Power Five Conferences
3. Top Heisman Candidates
1. NEXT: The College Football Playoff
It’s the annual three true outcome piece. Each of these five predictions willbe a walk, a strikeout, or a home run.
In last year’s version of the Nutty Predictions That Just Might Be Right, there was one big whiff (Jalen Hurts would start for Alabama), three walks (Buffalo would be a Group of Five big deal, Michigan’s passing game would be good, and Arizona vs. Utah would be for the Pac-12 South title), and one solo shot home run about the new coaches being better than the guys they replaced (like, Sonny Dykes winning more games at SMU than Chad Morris would at Arkansas, and Josh Heupel would win more games at UCF than Scott Frost would at Nebraska).
This year, there’s no getting cheated. Here are five nutty, massive cut, home run swing predictions that will either leave the yard, or be ugly Ks.
And all five of them fit together in the puzzle that will be the 2019 college football season, starting with …
5. Michigan will win the Big Ten Championship
Michigan has been better than you think under Jim Harbaugh.
Really? We’re going to dog Harbaugh for not beating Ohio State? Yeah, it’s valid, but it’s not like his Wolverines can’t beat Rutgers or Maryland.
They’ve had a hard time beating a program that went 48-5 over the last four seasons with two Big Ten championships, a Rose Bowl, a Cotton Bowl, a Fiesta Bowl, and lost to eventual national champion Clemson in the 2016 College Football Playoff.
Of course the Michigan head coach has to beat Ohio State, but lately, criticizing him for not doing that is like some Game of Thrones character not having enough dragon something against some other Game of Thrones guy’s magic potion thingy (sorry … I’ve never seen the show, and any other cultural reference at the moment doesn’t work).
Remember, people, that Michigan won ten games once between 2007 and 2014, going 5-7 in the final year before Harbaugh.
Michigan has won ten games in three of the last four seasons.
Out of the 14 losses, three were in major bowl games, four were against Ohio State, and out of the other seven, only a 14-13 last second loss to Iowa in 2016 was against a team that failed to win at least ten games.
Okay, yeah, whatever … you want a Big Ten Championship out of the guy. This is the year it’s going to happen.
The defense will still be terrific, but it’ll be the offensive side that steps it up. The offense will be faster and with more downfield passing with a strong, veteran receiving corps for Shea Patterson to throw to. Best of all, the schedule works.
CFN Podcast: 2019 Top Sleeper Teams
Going to Wisconsin stinks, but the Wolverines get a week off to prepare, and the Badgers won’t be quite ready yet in mid-September with a murky quarterback situation and four new starters on the offensive front.
The Penn State game is on the road, but Michigan State and Ohio State are at home. There can and will be a two Big Ten losses along the way, but one of them won’t be against the Buckeyes.
The showdown on November 30th is in Ann Arbor, and as Michigan man Gerald Ford once put it, the program’s long national nightmare will be over.
Will it be because Michigan will be that good? Partially, but it’ll also be because Ohio State won’t have the main man at the helm. However …
NEXT: No. 4 Nutty Preseason Prediction
4. Urban Meyer will be the 2020 USC head coach
It’s not like USC is going to be bad again.
The defense will be talented, athletic and dangerous, and the offensive pivot/Hail Mary to the Texas Tech style under Graham Harrell – the Señor Spielbergo offensive coordinator choice once Kliff Kingsbury fell up to the Arizona Cardinal gig – should make things interesting.
This was a young team that needed time and seasoning, and it’s going to be an interesting player in the Pac-12 South race and …
It’s not going to be enough.
The Trojans start out the season against Fresno State, Stanford, at BYU, Utah, at Washington, and at Notre Dame. That’s not exactly playing the SEC West, but there are two losses packed in there to go along with dates against Oregon, at Arizona State, at Cal, and thanks for playing, Clay Helton, if there’s a second straight loss to UCLA.
This is US-fricking-C. We’re supposed to be looking at that schedule and wondering how the Trojans will be anything but 11-1.
We’re all talking about Clemson and Alabama in the national title picture again, and Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State in the CFP chase.
We’re going to be discussing the rise of Texas, the potential of Michigan, and the prospects of Nebraska’s turnaround – you know, the blue blood superpower programs.
Meanwhile, USC will play football, and it’ll win some games. Again, that’s not enough for a program that hasn’t lost fewer than three games since 2011, and hasn’t been in the national championship discussion since 2008.
If only there was an all-time great college football head coach out there who just needs to recharge the battery.
And if only that coach was going to be in Los Angeles on a regular basis as part of a pregame broadcast team with Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush.
So far, Helton is 32-17 as the USC head coach and lost seven games last season.
Urban Meyer lost nine games in seven years at Ohio State.
NEXT: No. 3 Nutty Preseason Prediction
3. Texas A&M will beat Clemson and become a thing
LSU’s schedule was supposed to be too tough.
The Tigers weren’t supposed to have any shot against Miami to kick things off. They weren’t supposed to be able to navigate their way through a road game at Auburn, a showdown at Florida, a date with Georgia, a battle against Alabama, and a trip to Texas A&M
They might have lost three of those – to the Gators, Tide and Aggies – but they still managed to come up with a terrific 10-3 season when most predicted doom and gloom considering the slate.
Take all that and apply it to 2019 Texas A&M.
The Aggies aren’t going to the College Football Playoff – the schedule actually is too tough – but even with road games at Georgia, LSU and Clemson, and despite having to face Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State and South Carolina, they’re going to be good enough to at least go 9-3 with a few key stunners along the way.
It starts at Clemson.
Syracuse gave the Tigers their biggest battle last season, but that was partly because Kelly Bryant was done and Trevor Lawrence got hurt.
A&M gave the Tigers their toughest straight-up game of the year – Bryant and Lawrence both played – stuffing Travis Etienne for just 44 yards, getting 430 passing yards and three scores out of Kellen Mond, and outgaining the eventual national champs by almost 100 yards.
Of course, Clemson hung on to win 28-26, and the game was in College Station, but this time around, the Aggies have the talent to return the favor.
The secondary is going to be fantastic, the receiving corps is once again going to be terrific, and the lines are good enough to hold up against what the Tigers are bringing.
Clemson is the better team, it has the talent, the quarterback, and the depth to overcome the massive personnel losses. But on September 7th in Death Valley, the 2019 college football campaign will take an early left turn.
And that’s why …
NEXT: No. 2 Nutty Preseason Prediction
2. Either Clemson or Alabama won’t make the College Football Playoff
Don’t be that guy.
Don’t regurgitate the hipster offseason talking point that Clemson – as good as it’s been – wouldn’t have won any national titles if it was in the SEC.
Don’t fall for the idea that the debacle in Santa Clara signaled the beginning of the fall of the Saban empire.
Don’t be boring and assume that we’re automatically destined for Clemson-Alabama V: Last Blood, and don’t automatically assume both teams will be in the College Football Playoff again.
Alabama is the easier call to miss out on the CFP, even though it’s gone 5-for-5 since the creation of the thing. After all, if Jalen Hurts didn’t pull that SEC Championship rabbit out of his hat, there would’ve at least been a discussion that the CFP should’ve been Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Georgia.
Okay, so Bama would’ve been in no matter what – and OU would’ve been out – but the program caught a mega-break two years ago when Wisconsin came up just short in the Big Ten Championship loss to Ohio State. If the Badgers win that, Alabama is out, and there would’ve been a different national champion.
CFN Podcast: Transfer Portal, CFP Expansion, Clemson vs. Alabama
The Tide will roll through most of their games, but could they lose on the road to a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Auburn? Could they get tagged in Tuscaloosa by an LSU or a Tennessee? All it takes is one loss, and then a misfire in the SEC Championship to be out.
But nah … all Clemson did was anger the beast.
The Tigers are the scarier call to lose two games and miss out on the CFP, mainly because the ACC schedule is so light and breezy compared to what Alabama has to deal with.
Clemson has to face Texas A&M at home, but where’s that second loss going to come from if it really does lose to the Aggies?
At Syracuse? At NC State? At South Carolina? At home to Florida State? The only way that happens is if Trevor Lawrence gets hurt or if there’s an overconfidence thing that kicks in among all the new parts of the puzzle.
But if the idea is to take the nutty home run cut – getting the bat off the shoulder – Clemson will somehow lose two games and not get into the College Football Playoff. And that means …
NEXT: No. 1 Nutty Preseason Prediction
1. Oklahoma will play in the College Football Playoff National Championship
We’re coming up on almost 20 years since we allowed Oklahoma to reintroduce itself with a stunning run to the 2001 Orange Bowl to take the BCS Championship, and it’s been over ten years since the program last played for a national title.
But it’s been knocking on the door.
It’s had the misfortune of running into a College Football Playoff hard ceiling, dropping semifinal games to Clemson in 2015, Georgia in 2017, and Alabama last season.
This is the year it finally breaks through. It’ll be a different sort of Sooner team this time around, and mostly for the good.
Start with the miracle of miracles that Lincoln Riley is still the OU head coach, and not preparing for Year One of his tenure with the Dallas Cowboys – ohhhhhh, that’s coming soon … contract extension, contract exsmension.
Add in the fun little twist of finally playing a wee bit of defense this season. All OU’s D had to do over the last two College Football Playoffs was hold serve just enough in key spots to let the O take over, and it didn’t happen. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s group will start taking the ball away more as the offense won’t have to do all of the heavy lifting this time around.
The running backs are good, the receiving corps is great, and they landed the right guy to lead the way to that one extra step.
You have to be a different kind of cat to be Nick Saban’s starting quarterback as a true freshman.
CFN Podcast: Top Heisman Hopefuls … Sort Of
Jalen Hurts might not be Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield as an NFL passer, but Murray and Mayfield weren’t one defensive stop in Tampa vs. Clemson – and a pick play – away from being a two-time national championship starting quarterback.
He’s been in the biggest of big games. He’s had to deal with the biggest pressure moments. He’s had to get through the most public of college football quarterback job losses. Now he gets to take all his experience, poise, leadership and skills into his final season.
Will he be the first college football player to be the winning starting quarterback for two different national championship programs?
The storyline is too spicy …
Oklahoma vs. Alabama – Hurts vs. Tua – in New Orleans for the national title.
