19 for ’19 Offseason Topics, No. 18: The five teams about to rebound big from a mediocre 2018.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
Not everything goes according to plan.
Every year there are a few highly-ranked teams that have a rough run, go into the tank, or simply don’t play up to their brand name expectations.
These five teams were ranked highly last season – partly because of brand name, partly because they were supposed to be great – that should bounce back in a huge way.
Call them the aberration seasons. Hiccups. Anomalies. Whatever 2018 was for these five, get ready to see them become their old selves again.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
2018 Preseason Ranking
AP 20, Coaches 17
Final Record: 6-7
In 1992, Virginia Tech went 2-8-1. The following season, it shocked the college football world with a 9-3 run, and the program hadn’t known a losing season until 2018.
For the Hokies, having a bad year was winning seven games, but at least there was always a bowl game to count on. Last season, it took everything possible just to have a shot at a bowl.
In all, for one of the most consistently solid programs for almost three decades, 2018 was sort of … pathetic.
Start with the the contrived way of trying to keep the bowl eligibility streak alive. After missing the East Carolina game earlier in the year thanks to Hurricane Florence, Virginia Tech was going to make it up by playing Marshall on December 1st – but only if it meant it would be for a shot at going bowling.
It took a thrilling win over Virginia to get to five wins to trigger the Marshall game. The Hokies got the win, but suffered the indignity of losing to a Group of Five program – Cincinnati – in the Military Bowl.
The defense that has been such a bedrock couldn’t tackle, got lit up by Old Dominion for 48 points, and in all, gave up 403 points a season after allowing just 192.
Part of the problem was an early injury to star QB Josh Jackson. He’s now at Maryland, but Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister is coming in to challenge Ryan Willis, who did an okay job filling in when needed. The quarterbacks are good enough.
Some key receivers took off, and the O line returns just two starters, but RB Deshawn McClease decided to stay after considering transferring, and the defense should be far better with nine starters expected back.
Best of all, the schedule works out just fine. There might be trips to Notre Dame and Miami, but there’s no Clemson to deal with, and there are more than enough winnable games to expect a third nine-win season in the last four.
NEXT: 2018 Preseason. AP & Coaches 16
4. TCU Horned Frogs
2018 Preseason Ranking
AP 16, Coaches 16
Final Record: 7-6
This happens every once in a while at TCU.
The 2013 couldn’t do anything right in a 4-8 season, and the following season – after a few offensive tweaks – the Horned Frogs went 12-1 and came within the wrong side of a theoretical debate of going to the College Football Playoff.
Just when there seemed to be staying power after an 11-2 2015 campaign … thud. 6-7 with the offense collapsing. Just when all seemed lost, 11-3 in 2017 with a trip to the Big 12 title game and an Alamo Bowl win over Stanford.
2018 was supposed to keep it all going, and then the offense went bye-bye after the third game of the season.
The Horned Frogs scored 17 points or fewer in seven of the last ten games, but they came up with a gut-check run of three wins in the final four to get to the Cheez-It Bowl. They endured Cal in a 10-7 win, but still, this wasn’t the TCU team that was ranked in the preseason top 16.
The defense should still be terrific, even with the loss of six starters – the replacements are going to fill in fast. The offense is going to be fine with most of the key skill guys back, four starters returning up front, and the transfer of Kansas State’s Alex Delton to battle for the quarterback gig with freshman Max Duggan and redshirt Justin Rogers.
There’s no Ohio State on the schedule this time around, but there is a trip to Purdue. Texas and West Virginia have to come to Fort Worth. Outside of the date at Oklahoma, the rest of the schedule is more than manageable.
NEXT: 2018 Preseason: AP & Coaches 15
3. USC Trojans
2018 Preseason Ranking
AP 15, Coaches 15
Final Record: 5-7
If you’re USC, you’re not supposed to have a losing record no matter what.
It was as disastrous a season as it gets for a Trojan program that finally won a Pac-12 Championship the year before. There were some key losses – like QB Sam Darnold – but there was more than enough returning to expect another Pac-12 South title.
But instead of taking advantage of the down year in the division, and the league, USC couldn’t get the offense consistently moving, there wasn’t any ground game, and the defense couldn’t pick up the slack.
The 313 points were the fewest scored by the Trojans since 2001.
Worst of all, the team didn’t get any better. It was a rebuilding squad with young players, but it lost five of its last six games, collapsed against Cal, lost to UCLA, and with bowl eligibility on the line, couldn’t come through against Notre Dame.
But it’s USC. It’s going to be okay – even without Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator.
Last year’s superstar QB recruit JT Daniels should be far more consistent, there’s going to be a running game, and the receiving corps is loaded.
Okay, so the secondary is all but starting over, and losing LB Cameron Smith and DE Christian Rector isn’t a plus, but the pieces overall are there to push for a nine-win season.
No one’s expecting a college football playoff run with road dates at Washington, Notre Dame and Arizona State, and with no cupcake games on the slate to take a week off, but USC should be USC again.
At least, it had better be.
NEXT: 2018 Preseason. AP 11, Coaches 12
2. Michigan State Spartans
2018 Preseason
AP 11, Coaches 12
Final Record: 7-6
There was a reason the polls were in deep like with the 2018 Spartans.
The defense that was a rock late in 2017 was coming back loaded, and the offense that hung up 82 points in the final two games – including in a 42-17 win over Washington State – had plenty of weapons.
But the 2018 team could never find its offensive mojo.
The defense cranked up a historic season against the run and turned into a brick wall over the second half, allowing ten points or fewer in four of the last five games. But the offense scored six points in three of the last four games, and 32 points total in the stretch.
It was still a winning season, but the Spartans lost the Redbox Bowl to Oregon in a 7-6 nightmare. They lost at home to Ohio State, they lost at home to Northwestern, and while they were able to get by Penn State, they followed it up with a loss to Michigan.
But if head man Mark Dantonio can take a team that went 3-9 in 2016 to ten wins the season after, he shouldn’t have any problems getting this team back on track.
It stars with the offense. At least there’s experience with options at quarterback, almost everyone of note back in the receiving corps, and all five starters back up front.
The defense that was College Football Playoff-good last year returns nine starters.
Road games have never scared this program under Dantonio, but it’s not going to be easy going away to play Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Northwestern. Even so, this is about to be the Michigan State you’re used to.
NEXT: 2018 Preseason. AP & Coaches 8
1. Miami Hurricanes
2018 Preseason
AP & Coaches 8
Final record: 7-6
To be fair, the 2018 Hurricanes were more about hype than reality.
The amazing run in 2017 – with a 10-0 start before getting clobbered in the final three games, including by Clemson in the ACC Championship, and by Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl – was built on a decent schedule and a few too many close calls.
The offense fizzled late, and the defense that was so talented couldn’t handle anyone with power.
LSU showed that things were about the same for Miami with a 33-17 win in the 2019 opener, but the defense managed to more than do its part all year long. It was the offense that was a nightmare, averaging just 15 points per game over an ugly four-game losing streak.
Going bowling was fine, getting defrayed against by Wisconsin – 35-3 in the Pinstripe – to finish 7-6, wasn’t.
But the program is about to do a reboot.
New head man Manny Diaz appears to be the shot in the arm needed after Mark Richt got things rolling again. A few terrific transfer talents are coming in, the linebacking corps should be among the best in the country, and if Ohio State transfer Tate Martell is allowed to play right away by the NCAA, Miami look out. If not, don’t expect the quarterback situation to continue to be such a dud.
It’ll still be a distant second behind Clemson in the ACC talent-wise, but the defending national champs aren’t on the schedule.
Even with the moved-up-to-August-24th date against Florida in Orlando, the schedule works. There’s a week off to prepare for Virginia Tech at home, Florida State isn’t likely back to being Florida State again, and in all, a ten-win season is possible.
And so is a second trip to the ACC Championship in three years.
