19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 10 Five college football teams with the best shot at getting the New Year’s Six Bowl slot.
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Houston, Boise State, Western Michigan, UCF, and then UCF again. Those are your five Group of Five champions who got a bone thrown to them with an automatic bid into a New Year’s Six bowl game.
It’s not the College Football Playoff, but it’s still a high honor.
All five teams represented themselves well, with the Group of Fivers going 3-2 since the bowl slot was created. This year, if the top GOF champ doesn’t get into the College Football Playoff, it’ll go to the Cotton Bowl to face an at-large team in the final CFP rankings.
Which five teams this season have the best shot at getting the spotlight game?
5. Marshall Thundering Herd
Ready for the slight curveball to be thrown into the mix? Marshall has quietly been strong for the last several seasons, but they might just have the right blend of schedule and talent to get over the hump and into the New Year’s Six.
The road game at Boise State is the big barrier. Win that, and it’s Game On, with no games against Power Five programs and with every game on the slate more than winnable.
Even with a loss to the Broncos on the blue turf, the NY6 is still possible with the four other road games at Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Rice and Charlotte.
The home games against Ohio, Cincinnati and Louisiana Tech aren’t going to be a breeze, but any team worthy of going to the New Year’s Six has to take those down.
The defensive front seven might need some retooling, but the offense will be more than good enough to make up for it. The team is more than good enough to get to 11-1 and win the Conference USA title.
NEXT: Start 1-1, or better, and then see how it goes …
4. Fresno State Bulldogs
There’s a bit too much rebuilding to do to make a push for an unbeaten record, but head coach Jeff Tedford has figured out how to get the most out of the program in his two years.
This could be the season the Bulldogs come back in the pack a bit – just one starter is back on the offensive front, a new starting quarterback has to be broken in, and all the top linebackers are gone – but the schedule works out well if they can just win one of their first two games.
Can they get by USC on the road to start the season? Even though this isn’t a killer Trojan team, that’s asking a lot, but they can absolutely beat Minnesota in Fresno.
After the games against the two Power Five programs on the slate, Fresno State will be the favorite in every game the rest of the way with the possible exception of the trip to San Diego State.
There’s no Boise State on the schedule, and six of the last ten games are against teams that didn’t go bowling. The Utah State and Nevada games are at home, and there’s nothing on the road to get into a twist over outside of the games against the Trojans and Aztecs.
NEXT: Make the new guy pay for himself right away …
3. Houston Cougars
Okay, Dana Holgorsen. You want to make an impact? You want to show the world that going from West Virginia to Houston wasn’t like an actor making the move from movies to TV?
Beat Oklahoma to start the season.
That might not happen, but his Cougars might be just good enough to give it a run, and they should be strong enough to beat Washington State and Cincinnati at home.
The UCF game on the road is an issue, and beating Wazzu and UC are hardly automatic even though they’re at home, but that’s part of the overall positive aspect of the New Year’s Six dream – those are resume-building chances.
The offense is loaded with weapons, QB D’Eriq King is back – but he needs to stay healthy – and despite the loss of Ed Oliver, the defense should be okay. At least, it should be better.
This is a very good, very dangerous team with a motivated head coach.
Now beat Oklahoma, and the bar gets set even higher than the New Year’s Six.
NEXT: Seriously, find a way to make Tacko Fall eligible, and use him on jump ball passes in the red zone …
2. UCF Knights
Of course UCF is shooting higher than this.
The New Year’s Six bowl appearance was seen as a consolation prize in each of the last two seasons, and it even soured what really was an impressive achievement in each of the two years. But the Knights want 13-0, they want the respect from the CFP, and they want a shot to play for the national title.
This year they have the schedule to potentially get it done.
They already did the unbeaten thing, and that wasn’t enough. They have to do that, and beat teams with a pulse. This year, with Stanford and a road game at Pitt, they’ll have two to point to.
They have to go to Cincinnati and Temple, and they face Houston and USF at home. There’s just enough meat on the bone to make a better argument, but it doesn’t happen without wins over the Cardinal and Panthers.
With Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush ready to battle with Darriel Mack for the starting quarterback job, and with a terrific group of skill guys returning along with another great D, it’s all there.
But … the schedule is there, too. Lose a game, and the CFP is out, but the New Year’s Six is still on.
Make it 3-for-3, and that’s more than good enough, especially considering the fight it will take to get the spot over …
NEXT: Find a quarterback, find a spot in the New Year’s Six?
1. Boise State Broncos
Brett Rypien is gone, but as long a decent starting quarterback option emerges, this will be a dangerous team with the talent to come up with a special season.
The receiving corps is going to be good, all five starters return on the offensive front, and the defense gets back eight starters including a loaded back seven.
Best of all, there’s a chance to make a quick early statement against a Florida State team that should be better, but won’t be Florida State again right away.
Marshall is going to be terrific, but it has to come to Boise. After those two to open the season, there’s a trip to Utah State late in the season and a date at BYU, and … uhhhh … everything else is more than winnable.
There’s no San Diego State or Fresno State from the West division of the Mountain West, and seven of the last ten games are against teams that didn’t go bowling last season.
Win the Mountain West title for the second time in five years, go 12-1 along the way, and the trip to the Cotton Bowl will come.
