19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 1. Five preseason College Football Playoff scenarios
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Other 19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
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Let’s just cut to the chase … how’s this movie going to end?
The College Football Playoff system has its flaws – big, giant, juicy ones – but there’s no finishing seventh in your conference and getting hot for a few weeks on the way to a title. There’s no 68-team field, there’s no sucking all year and sneaking into an eighth-seed, and there’s no such thing as a cheap College Football Playoff champion.
There’s also no gimmick factor that destroys any need to care about a single moment of the regular season – looking at you, college basketball, the NHL and NBA.
Okay, so the CFP has turned the bowl season into an exhibition that’s totally skippable by coaches moving on to other gigs and NFL prospects who don’t want to get hurt, but that’s the price to pay for a true playoff.
It’s the show, and it’s where everyone wants to be on Saturday, December 28, and especially on January 13th in New Orleans.
Here are five scenarios for how this is all going to go, starting with the chalk, finishing with the likely, and with a few wish lists in between.
Other 19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
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5. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Chalk
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma
They’re four of the best programs going at the moment – put Georgia in there as a close fifth – from the Power Five conferences, the Pac-12 gets left out, the Group of Five is an afterthought, there’s no arguing about two teams getting in from the same conference, there’s no debate about Notre Dame, and …
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
America might need something else. The College Football Playoff could use an infusion of new fan bases and a bit of a reboot after last year’s total clunker of a tournament.
Is it time to move on past Alabama and Clemson? Maybe, considering it’s a little ho-hum when those two are ripping through everything in their respective paths on the way to an inevitable conclusion. But to see the best of the best do their thing, Round Five would still be something special. Take a deep breath for a moment …
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma would, of course, be sort of awesome.
These are the superstars in the battle of the bigs, and as we’ve seen so far, the CFP is normally at its best when its heavyweight vs. heavyweight.
It’s not a whole lot of fun when there’s a cute story team that gets in – like Notre Dame last year, Michigan State at the end of the 2015 season, and Washington in 2016 – and then gets annihilated.
Superpower battles don’t ensure anything – last year’s national championship proved that – but at least there’s a better chance of the 2018 thriller between Alabama and Georgia or the two Deshaun Watson vs. Alabama classics.
But picking those four to get in is easy, so let’s go with …
NEXT: No. 4 Four New – But Big-Time – Programs
4. College Football Playoff Scenario: Four New – But Big-Time – Programs
LSU, Michigan, Texas, USC
We already did the piece on the five best programs to never be in the College Football Playoff, and it really would be interesting if it was Penn State, Stanford, TCU and Wisconsin – those are four of the five – but that wouldn’t exactly get the national needle moving.
LSU or Florida, Michigan, Texas and USC? To take this CFP thing and make it more of a national story in late December, get four monster fan bases that would all travel and rock the respective houses, and look out.
Other 19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. Power 5 Potential Disappointments
6. Power 5 Potential Surprises
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There really is an Alabama/Clemson fatigue, and it’s from their own fan bases. They’re tapped out after so many years of success – it costs a lot to travel, and hotels, and tickets, and eating, and t-shirts. Get four brand new programs in this, and disposable income doesn’t become an issue.
Even two of those four getting in would change the CFP dynamic, unless they got wiped out by Alabama and Clemson. This would work best and be the most entertaining if we had four new storylines and a fresh breath of excitement.
That would be fun, but we’re way overdue for …
NEXT: No. 3 The Nuclear Option
3. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Nuclear Option
Alabama, Miami, TCU, Wisconsin
Or, Clemson, and any three random CFP newbies you can name.
In five years of the College Football Playoff and with 20 total spots taken up, there’s one doomsday scenario we haven’t yet experienced.
The conference championship upset shocker.
It almost happened in 2015 when an unbeaten-but-flawed 12-0 Iowa team was one defensive stop against Michigan State away from going to the College Football Playoff – where it would’ve been blown out by a gajillion against Alabama – but that wouldn’t have been that crazy.
Other 19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
5. Ranking Group of Five Conferences
4. Ranking The Power Five Conferences
3. Top Heisman Candidates
2. 5 Nutty Predictions That Might Be Right
For example, Miami, TCU and Wisconsin could all end up in their respective conference title games against the big boys. What if the Canes shock Clemson? What would happen if the Horned Frogs pulled it off against Oklahoma, and if Bucky finally finished the drill against a great Ohio State team?
What if a bulk of the title game favorites get whacked, and some conference championship underdogs take up three of the top four spots, and Alabama takes the other?
Or, what if Clemson gets in, and the other three teams are upstarts?
Last year’s CFP turned into The Clemson Invitational, but that was an aberration considering how great the other four national titles were.
It’s the one thing the playoff people absolutely don’t want to see again – two ugly blowouts by the eventual national champion.
But let’s put this plane down in the land of the real, and …
NEXT: No. 2 The Little Guy FINALLY Gets A Shot
2. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Little Guy FINALLY Gets A Shot
Any Three Power Five champions, and one Group of Five champion
So far in the College Football Playoff, we’ve had an independent team and we’ve had two teams that didn’t win their own respective divisions, much less their conference championships.
But the College Football Playoff is 0-for-20 on getting in a Group of Five program.
In 2016, Tom Herman’s Houston program was coming off a dominant 13-1 season complete with a Peach Bowl whacking of Florida State. Into Houston came Baker Mayfield and the eventual Big 12 champion Oklahoma team, and out they went with a 33-23 loss that wasn’t even that close.
That win, combined with a 36-10 destruction of Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville would’ve been the resumé builders – especially considering what the Sooners did the rest of the way – to make a CFP case for the Cougars if they finished unbeaten.
Of course, the three losses along the way ruined that, but big wins over big-name teams is what it will take – and what UCF has been missing in the regular season – for a Group of Five program to break the glass ceiling to get into the College Football Playoff.
This year, Dana Holgorsen’s Houston team starts the season off at Oklahoma, and later hosts Washington State in NRG Stadium. With a dynamic Cougar offense, this is a dangerous team capable of pulling off those two upsets. Beat UCF – probably twice, considering a possible matchup in the American Athletic title game – and a 13-0 Houston would have a brilliant case to get in.
The same goes for UCF. The Knights have certainly built up their foundation of wins over the last two seasons, and this year they host Stanford early on and go to Pitt. Those two games aren’t killers, but they’re restaurant quality matchups that might just be enough to make the CFP care about a 13-0 Knight team.
Boise State starts the season off against Florida State in Jacksonville and has to go to BYU in mid-October. Other than that, the schedule is a bowl full of pudding.
It’s going to take a perfect storm for this to happen – there can’t be four rock-solid Power Five champions – but the CFP is overdue to give the little guy a break.
NEXT: No. 1 What’s Going To Happen?
1. College Football Playoff Scenario: What’s Going To Happen?
Okay, enough playing around. Here we go. Here’s what’s going to happen.
Alabama is angry. And you thought last year’s team was something special – at least before the SEC Championship. This year’s offense will be just as unstoppable – possibly more so – and the schedule isn’t all that bad considering there’s a week off before going to Texas A&M and the date with LSU is in Tuscaloosa. The Tide will roll to the No. 1 seed. Sorry, America.
Clemson is very, very, very, very good again, even with the wholesale change on the defensive front four. All bets are off if Trevor Lawrence gets hurt, and there will be one clunker along the way – the call this entire offseason has been that early date against Texas A&M – but there won’t be a second loss on the way to the No. 2 seed. Sorry, America.
It’s not going to be a walk in the park for Oklahoma. Be very, very careful of the Houston game to start the season, going to UCLA won’t be all that easy, and the Big 12 is full of landmines, but it’ll be another 12-1 run with another Big 12 championship. The Sooner D will finally start doing the tackling thing the kids are all talking about, and Jalen Hurts will be more than fine with the loaded group of skill guys around him.
Michigan is about to finally get past the bouncer. Michigan was a win against the Buckeyes away from beating Northwestern for the Big Ten championship on the way to the College Football Playoff. Okay, yeah, but other than that Ohio State loss, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? At least the Wolverines were in the chase until the end of the regular season.
This time around, Jim Harbaugh’s team will get it done against OSU in Ann Arbor. It’ll lose once along the way – likely at Penn State – and will end up as the fourth seed, but whatever … it’ll be in.
