In response to the global trend toward decarbonization, the total installed capacity of thermal power plants in the nation is expected to decrease by 13.22 million kilowatts by fiscal 2030.
The decrease is equivalent to 13 nuclear power plants. For the five years from fiscal 2026 to 2030, there will be no new construction of thermal power plants. It remains to be seen how the nation can secure alternative power sources such as nuclear power plants in order to reduce its dependence on thermal power, which currently accounts for 70% of the electricity supply.
--8% of thermal capacity to be lost
The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry has estimated the changes in power generation capacity by fiscal 2030 factoring in the construction and decommissioning of thermal power plants owned by major electric power companies, among other organizations.
In the fiscal 2021-25 period, a total of 18.85 million kilowatts of electricity produced by oil, coal, and natural gas plants that have been in operation for more than 45 years are expected be decommissioned.
About 14.44 million kilowatts of electricity from highly efficient natural gas and coal-fired power plants, which emit relatively little carbon dioxide, will be newly constructed. But no new thermal power plants are scheduled to be built in the fiscal 2026-30 period, and 8.81 million kilowatts of thermal power generation capacity are planned to be phased out.
This means that a total of 13.22 million kilowatts of capacity will be lost over the next 10 years. As of the end of March 2020, thermal power generation capacity totaled about 170 million kilowatts, and 8% of that capacity will be lost over the next 10 years.
Some European countries are calling for the total abolition of thermal power generation. Demonstration experiments are underway to recover CO2 emitted from thermal power generation. "It will become increasingly difficult to build new thermal power plants, and there is a possibility that the number of such plants will decrease further," a senior official of the ministry said.
--Abandoning new construction
The private sector has already begun to shift away from the construction of new plants.
Electric Power Development Co. (J-Power), a major electric power company, expects to reduce its power generation capacity from the current 8 million kilowatts to roughly 5 million kilowatts, a 40% reduction, over the next 10 years by phasing out coal-fired power plants that emit a lot of CO2. The company announced this month that it has abandoned plans to build a coal-fired power plant in Yamaguchi Prefecture.
In March, Chugoku Electric Power Co. and other electric firms also announced the suspension of construction of a gas-fired thermal power plant that was scheduled to start operation in 2024.
Kyushu Electric Power Co. has postponed its investment decision on a liquefied natural gas thermal power plant to be jointly developed with Tokyo Gas Co. and other firms.
In the industry, thermal power generation is becoming a project that "will be difficult to recover investment in [new] construction [of thermal power plants]," J-Power Director Hitoshi Kanno said.
--Nuclear power essential
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Thursday announced a new greenhouse gas reduction target for fiscal 2030, aiming for a 46% reduction from fiscal 2013 levels.
Electricity demand in fiscal 2030 is not expected to decrease significantly, as energy conservation progress and electric vehicles are expected to spread.
In a bid to achieve the government's goal, it will be necessary to review Japan's power source composition -- which is now heavily weighted toward thermal power generation -- and secure alternative power sources.
The government is aiming to promote the use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. China, Europe, the United States and other countries are competing to expand the use of renewable energy.
The International Energy Agency predicts that the share of renewable energy in the world's total power generation will exceed 30% by 2025, and that it will replace coal as the world's largest power source.
However, as the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources increases -- sources that are heavily dependent on optimal weather conditions -- supply to the power grid will become less stable.
Supply and demand of electricity are likely to be particularly tight in the summer, when demand for air conditioning rises sharply, and in the winter, when daylight hours are short.
In order to expand the use of renewable energy and reduce the use of thermal power, the use of nuclear power is essential, as it also contributes to decarbonization.
The operation of nuclear power plants, which generate power at a lower cost, will also help curb electricity bills that have ballooned with the introduction of renewable energy.
The government, however, has not made clear its vision of the future of nuclear power. Of Japan's 33 nuclear power plants, only seven are in operation. It is necessary to move forward on the nation's nuclear energy policy, which continues to go astray.
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