We’re a little more than two months away from UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov’s next title defense, but it’s never too early to start talking about who’s next in line – and who could be down the road.
Nurmagomedov is a specialist of the highest order in grappling and ground-and-pound, so naturally the choices of who could beat him are focused on those with the best chance of besting – or at least neutralizing – the smothering pressure he brings when the fight hits the canvas.
Here’s a ranking of 13 fighters, regardless of promotion, who’d have a chance to end the UFC champ’s undefeated 27-0 run.
13) Natan Schulte
PFL lightweight champ Natan Schulte is fast in transitions and pulls off trips and takedowns that surprise seasoned veterans. He also takes foes out of their game with steady striking pressure. He ran the table in PFL’s first season, and that’s nothing to sneeze at.
12) Mairbek Taisumov
Visa issues have kept Mairbek Taisumov from building momentum in the UFC lightweight division, but that hasn’t kept the Chechyan from racking up knockout wins. He’s booked to face the surging Carlos Diego Ferreira in a bout that could preview the next major contender.
Since Taisumov returns after a positive drug test, we’ll also get our first look at whether U.S. Anti-Doping Agency enforcement and success are mutually exclusive.
11) Leonardo Santos
The “TUF Brazil 2” veteran Leonardo Santos has quietly racked up wins since his time on the reality show. After a three-year layoff, he’s fresh off a knockout of Stevie Ray. And while that’s not exactly the gateway to a title shot, if he performs like he did against Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin, he’s a future threat.
10) Charles Oliveira
Nurmagomedov never has faced as dangerous a submission threat as Charles Oliveira. The all-time UFC submissions leader finds a way to catch opponents in transition and finish quick, and you know he’d have plenty of opportunities to find moves from his back.
9) Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone has always been a slow starter, and he was overwhelmed at times by Tony Ferguson’s constant pressure at UFC 238. Years of rapid-fire fights might be catching up to him, and he’d find no respite from Nurmagomedov’s forward march if they fought. Where he’s best is on the attack, with time to set up those sharp-shooter combinations. If he could push the champ back long enough, Cerrone could have a shot. Also an underrated grappler, it’s not crazy to imagine a triangle choke for the win.
8) Conor McGregor
It might be true that Conor McGregor wasn’t fighting like himself when he lost to Nurmagomedov at UFC 229. Or it could be that Nurmagomedov’s wrestling – or merely the threat of it – is enough to counteract any left hand that connects. McGregor has seen how low he can go in the cage with the sport’s greatest grappler, and he’d have time to correct many of the mistakes he made. He’ll never close the gap on the ground. But he could find a way to stand a little longer, and that might be enough.
7) Rustam Khabilov
Rustam Khabilov and Nurmagomedov are brothers (of a sort) and longtime training partners and will never fight. This we know. But if we’re speculating on who best could figure out the puzzle that is Nurmagomedov, wouldn’t it be the guy who knows him best? Khabilov shows shades of Nurmagomedov’s brilliance in the areas where it counts. On a good night, maybe he could teach the teacher a lesson.
6) Al Iaquinta
What we saw from Al Iaquinta in the fourth and fifth round of his last-second UFC 223 fight with Nurmagomedov was the first outline of a blueprint. Iaquinta had the wrestling chops to stuff takedowns and made the champ stand. Time limits being what they are, Iaquinta couldn’t get the ball rolling fast enough. But with a full training camp, and time to heal up from getting the (expletive) kicked out of him, his chances look good.
5) Patricio Freire
Michael Chandler would’ve been close to the top of the class had he not run into Patricio Freire’s right hand. Chandler is the best lightweight champ in Bellator’s history, and none of those exceptionally well-rounded skills mattered against Freire’s speed and power. The Brazilian spitfire now has a legitimate argument to take down Khabib in a fictional world where promotional borders don’t exist. Doubt him if you must, but Freire keeps finding ways to surprise the world.
4) Benson Henderson
If you want to escape bottom position against Khabib, you have to be exceptional in scrambles. This is where Benson Henderson excels. He fights for every single position, and he squirms out of spots that would trap others. He’s also more than capable of standing up with Khabib, which is why he makes this list as a Bellator star.
3) Justin Gaethje
We don’t see many opponents put Khabib on his back foot for long, which is why a matchup with Justin Gaethje is so darn intriguing. It’s hard to imagine Nurmagomedov willingly standing with this tank of a human any longer than absolutely necessary. He’d have a minimum of five opportunities to get the fight to the mat. Could he land all of them? If Gaethje denies the shot early, that means he’s moving forward, doing to Khabib what he does to everyone who doesn’t land five or 15 shots directly to his chin.
2) Dustin Poirier
There’s no better time to believe that Dustin Poirier is the best lightweight in the world. He’s clearly a fighter at his competitive peak. Maybe he’s able to keep this fight where it needs to be, which is on the feet. Maybe he sticks the sprawl, or alternately, doesn’t get thrown off when Khabib goes the other direction and strikes. Maybe he unlocks the Dagestani leg irons. The MMA gods are watching, so now seems as good a time as any to believe.
1) Tony Ferguson
If Tony Ferguson hadn’t performed the way he did against Cerrone, he would’ve gotten bumped further down the list. Sure, Cerrone is a diametric opposite of Nurmagomedov in fight approach. What Ferguson proved was that he hasn’t lost a step. That combination of pace, creativity and all-around skill is what makes this matchup the Holy Grail of the lightweight division, which is to say very elusive and fraught with many detours comedic and otherwise.
