Welcome to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. There are a few pieces of advice that you should use when betting this weekend. Some of the nuggets of wisdom below are stolen from other people, while some just make sense.
That advice will pop up through this week’s pick. Use it, don’t use it, but just think about it. There’s nothing worse than having a bad divisional round with the national championship game coming up on Monday.
As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Minnesota Vikings v. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7
Over/Under: 44.5
This week’s best bets will be a little different. We’ll just pick each game, maybe some first-half and team total bets, and any teasers will be listed
Advice piece 1: Don’t let last week affect this week’s picks. There’s been a lot of buzz about how Minnesota looked very good in their upset over the Saints last week. Kirk Cousins finally got the big-game monkey off his back. The Vikings went into New Orleans and won so they can definitely go into San Francisco and beat a Niners team that doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience.
Well, San Franciso lost three games this year. They lost to the Seahawks by three in overtime. They lost by three at Baltimore on a last-second field goal. They lost by seven to the Falcons in a weird game — and by the way, that seven was really one point because the Falcons scooped and scored on the final play of the game. That’s right. San Francisco is good at playing football, folks. They take a week off and suddenly we forgot about that, apparently.
The Niners have the coaching edge where Kyle Shanahan is one of the top coaches in the league and Mike Zimmer makes some questionable decisions. That’s where this game could be decided. If Shanahan can scheme up easy throws from Garoppolo, watch out. Per Warren Sharp, the Vikings are one of the worst teams against 21 personnel. The Niners play a ton of 21 personnel. Look for San Francisco to attack Anthony Barr as much as possible. When they aren’t attacking Barr in the passing game, expect them to run behind George Kittle — especially if Minnesota plays three safties instead of three linebackers.
Do we really expect Kirk Cousins to string together two big games against two good teams in a row? I’m not getting carried away with the Vikings.
Picks:
San Francisco 49ers -7 over Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings Team Total Under 17.5
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 First Half Line
Tennessee Titans v. BALTIMORE RAVENS -10
Over/Under: 47.5
Ten points is a whole lot of points in the playoffs. If one team should get the benefit of the doubt, it’s the Ravens. They have been unstoppable since September. The Ravens will win this game.
But, we aren’t talking about winning a game. We are talking about covering a game. Covering 10 points is a different conversation. Here’s why I don’t think Baltimore will cover the spread: game style.
Remember when everyone was talking about how the NFL is a passing league? Yea, these two teams don’t exactly agree with that. The Ravens are one of the best passing teams in the league, but it’s out of heavy sets and relies on their play-action game. The best way to beat the Ravens is to actually force them to run the ball — it makes no sense, but that’s what the Niners did. So Baltimore will be running the ball. The Titans will force them to do so.
We know exactly what the Titans are going to do. They are going to ride Derrick Henry as far as he can take them. They’ll take shots down field on play-action passes and then hand the ball off to Henry some more.
Running the ball and then running the ball some more. That’s what we’ll see in this game. This means the game is going to fly by. It will be a 7-10 point game where the Ravens win, but the Titans will keep it close until late.
Picks:
Tennesee Titans +10 over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Under 47.5
Houston Texans v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5
Over/Under 50.5
Here’s another game where we have two pieces of advice.
Advice Piece 2: Don’t overthink things. Sometimes it is what it is. If an underdog can’t win, don’t take them unless there’s a logical reason — like both teams will run the ball the entire game, shortening the game because the clock will continue to run, and therefore 10 points is a lot of points.
Advice Piece 3: Buy a half-point. Vegas is very good at this. Even if it doesn’t make sense at least you have a chance to push. Buy a lot of points if you wish.
Yes, the Texans beat Kansas City in the regular season, but that was months ago. The Chiefs had a top-five defense over the last quarter of the season. They are healthy. They have speed all over the place. They are battle tested from their run last year in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this.
Expect the Texans to play more man than zone as Mahomes is markedly better against zone coverages. The problem is Houston doesn’t have the talent in the secondary to keep up with the Chiefs scheme and weapons. Again, don’t overthink this.
The only reason to take the Texans is because Will Fuller will be on the football field and Houston is a different offense when Fuller is healthy, but . . . don’t overthink this. In fact, don’t overthink the over.
Picks:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7 (-180) over Houston Texans
Over 50.5
Over 24.5 First Half
Seattle Seahawks v. GREEN BAY PACKERS 4.5
Over/Under 46.5
They saved the worst game for last. I’ve been waiting all year to bet against the Packers in the playoffs but the Seahawks are so banged up, it’s difficult to come out here and pick Seattle.
We’re going to do it anyway because in this game we are using the pick the best quarterback piece of advice. Yes, Russell Wilson is currently better than Aaron Rodgers. It’s weird that the Packers don’t have the quarterback advantage for the first time in forever.
The problem for the Seahawks is that the best way to beat the Packers is by running the football. Marshawn Lynch has no explosiveness — this is to be expected — and Travis Homer isn’t an every-down back. You see the issue here.
The Packers have been winning ugly all year. They may win ugly again. Winning ugly doesn’t mean they’ll cover.
Picks:
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 over Green Bay Packers
Other Bets
Three Team 10-Point Teaser: Ravens (PK), Titans +20, Niners +3
Three Team 10-Point Teaser: Ravens (PK), Chiefs +0.5, Texans-Chief over 40.5
Moneyline Parlay: Ravens -455, Chiefs -455, Seahawks + 170: Parlay pays out 3:1.
2019 Record: 61-60-2
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
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