Week 3 of any preseason is the week in which you see the most from the starters, from established veterans to rookies trying to find their way. It’s the week you see the most that can parlay into the regular season, and here are 11 things that grabbed our attention.
Cam Newton might be the next Andrew Luck.
Picture, if you will, a quarterback just hitting his 30s whose shoulder and lower-body injuries affect his efficiency and availability, and eventually lead him to reconsider his love for the game. It was true of Andrew Luck, and the injury part has been true of Cam Newton. Newton’s play value plummeted in the second half of last season when he was dealing with a shoulder injury, and the midfoot sprain he suffered Thursday against the New England Patriots may or may not leave him out for Week 1 of the regular season against the Rams. Newton has had two shoulder surgeries in the last three years, and he was sacked twice against the Patriots. Newton has been hit 1,221 times since his rookie season of 2011, the most hits any quarterback has endured in that span, and you have to wonder at some point if the end is near. Newton signed a five year, $103.8 million contract extension in 2015, and that contract ends after the 2020 season.
Jacoby Brissett had better be ready for prime time.
And with Luck’s retirement, Brissett, the 2016 third-round pick of the Patriots, settles right into the NFL’s bull’s-eye. He did decently enough as Luck’s replacement in 2017 when Luck missed the entire season due to shoulder issues, completing 58.8% of his passes for 3,098 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brissett has had a year and a half of development since then, and that shows at times, as he completed 10 of 15 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown in the 2019 preseason. But there are still times when Brissett is a balky thrower, when his mechanics betray him and he fires off-target. Brissett is a free agent after the 2019 season, and this is his most prominent audition for a future NFL starting spot that isn’t predicated by injury or retirement.
The Redskins have a quarterback problem, but not a running back problem.
Redskins head coach Jay Gruden named Case Keenum the starter ahead of rookie Dwayne Haskins, which probably makes sense in the short term. Haskins is still getting his game together, and Gruden would rather sacrifice arm talent to get a quarterback who understands and can run his system. But Keenum is a functionally limited quarterback, and that showed up once again in the preseason. He’s not a guy who’s going to create explosive plays under pressure, and though he completed nine of 14 passes for 101 yards against the Falcons last week, he also looked wobbly at times when harassed. Gruden will have to scheme his receivers open because Keenum isn’t going to make incredible contested throws.
The good news for Washington’s offense? Derrius Guice, the 2018 second-round running back who missed his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL, rushed 11 times for 44 yards against the Falcons and also had a touchdown called back due to a penalty. Guice showed speed and power, and alongside Adrian Peterson, he should be a major part of a rushing attack the Redskins will have to lean on until they get their quarterback situation figured out.
The Vikings have a quarterback problem, but not a running back problem.
Speaking of quarterbacks who have maximized their low ceilings in Gruden’s offenses, there’s the case of Kick Cousins, Minnesota’s $84 million man, who completed three of 13 passes for 35 yards against the Cardinals on Saturday. Cousins was frequently undone by Arizona’s pressure packages, and he’s never been a great quarterback under pressure. Head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski will have to work around Cousins with a run-heavy attack. Again.
The good news is that Dalvin Cook looked refreshed on his 85-yard touchdown run. Cook has battled injuries through his career, but he has a chance to be truly special in the zone-blocking concepts espoused by assistant head coach Gary Kubiak.
Cleveland’s defensive line presents impossible problems.
Jameis Winston was sacked five times on 26 dropbacks against the Browns on Friday, and while Tampa Bay’s porous offensive line was part of that story, the main topic of concern for Cleveland’s opponents in 2019 should be the starting defensive line of ends Olivier Vernon and Myles Garrett, and tackles Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi. What the Bucs found out — and what the rest of the league will see — is that if you double-team inside, you leave Garrett and Vernon open for single blocks on the edge. Not good. And if you flare out to deal with the ends, either Richardson or Ogunjobi can careen right up the middle to kick your quarterback’s butt. Also not good.
Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are the NFL’s two greatest offensive minds.
There’s been some interesting discussion of late about the efficiency of passing to running backs, but as is true with any statistical statement, one must consider the context. Yes, it makes little sense to throw a generic swing pass to your back on third-and-9, but there are coaches who take the concept and upend defenses with it.
Consider the case of Reid and Shanahan, whose Chiefs and 49ers faced off last Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes’ 62-yard touchdown pass to running back Damien Williams shows just one of many ways Reid successfully creates conflict against man coverage. With tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Sammy Watkins running quick in-cuts on the left side, coverage left Solomon Thomas, a 6-foot-2, 280-pound defensive lineman, to chase Williams up the boundary.
As you’d expect, it didn’t go well.
The 49ers responded with a Shanahan staple: creating defensive conflict by putting a running back in the slot or outside, and letting him run free through the subsequent confusion. The Chiefs are all balled up here as receiver Kendrick Bourne cuts inside while running back Matt Breida takes off downfield from the left slot for a 20-yard touchdown pass. Shanahan has been masterful for years when it comes to deploying his backs all over the formation to threaten coverage, and these two plays prove that any concept, no matter how ostensibly limited in the hands of limited coaches, can come alive in smarter circumstances.
The Eagles’ offensive line is better than you may think.
The Eagles may have the NFL’s most stacked roster, and that’s a credit to general manager Howie Roseman and his staff. One thing we may not talk about enough is Philly’s offensive line and how well it’s come together under line coach Jeff Stoutland — a guy I think is going to get some head coaching inquiries in the next few years. Not only did the Eagles move up to take Washington State tackle Andre Dillard in the first round to eventually replace Jason Peters, but they’ve also moved Halapoulivaati Vaitai inside to right guard, and Vaitai has done well in that role, especially when pulling and on the move. Offensive line success has a lot to do with coaching, and here, the Eagles are in great hands.
Josh Rosen deserves a starting nod.
Dolphins head coach Brian Flores still isn’t sure whether Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick will start when Miami faces the Ravens in Week of the regular season, a stern test for any quarterback.
“We have time to go through the evaluation,” Flores said on Sunday. “There’s not a big rush right now; so no, not just yet. Both guys have strengths, weaknesses and things that we like. But no, we have not made a concrete decision yet.”
If Rosen was in second place before Miami’s 22-7 win over the Jaguars last Thursday, he shouldn’t be any longer. He replaced Fitzpatrick in the third quarter and took his team on a 13-play, 99-yard drive in which he scrambled for meaningful yardage and hit receiver Isaiah Ford on a play where he had an easier completion and passed it up in favor of the harder throw. Rosen was moved out of the pocket by pressure and diagnosed the read on the run.
It’s these kinds of plays that may have the Dolphins eschewing Fitzpatrick’s experience in favor of Rosen’s explosive potential.
Kyler Murray is going to have growing pains.
As he showed against the Vikings, Murray continues to struggle with timing and placement on throws to his receivers. He did have a nice deep completion to Damiere Byrd but missed as many deep throws as he made. Murray hadn’t displayed his deep arm too much in Arizona’s first two preseason games, and though he has the mechanics and velocity to be one of the league’s most prolific deep passers as he was in college, Murray is still getting the timing of the routes and receivers together — especially on the run.
When Murray was flushed from the pocket, he wasn’t as consistent on simple intermediate throws as he’ll need to be. He also missed badly on a couple of end zone fades. Kliff Kingsbury had simplified his preseason passing game to include a ton of underneath stuff, and Mike Zimmer’s defense had all that on lock. Murray will see blitzes and coverages he didn’t see at the collegiate level, and from match coverage to zone blitzes, this was a valuable education for the first-overall pick.
Although there were flashes …
It’s time for Duke Johnson to live up to his potential.
In early August, the Texans traded a 2020 conditional fourth-round pick to the Browns and their crowded backfield for the services of Duke Johnson. That decision became a lot more important after Houston’s 34-0 loss to the Cowboys last Saturday, when running back Lamar Miller suffered a torn ACL and MCL. Now, Johnson will have the opportunity to do what he’s not done before–become a feature back in an NFL offense.
Johnson has always been a great pass-catching back, but as Pro Football Focus points out, there’s more to his game than a satellite role would imply. Johnson’s 4.8 yards per carry average on runs between the tackles ranks tied for eighth among the 91 NFL backs with 100 or more carries inside the tackles since 2015, and he can do more than just catch simple swing passes–he’s been excellent outside and in the slot.
The Texans may look to bring in help at the position, but even behind an offensive line with major issues, they should give Johnson an opportunity to carry the load–something the Browns never really did.
We can stop worrying about Drew Brees now.
Everyone wondered what was wrong with Drew Brees last season. The future Hall of Famer had 16 touchdown passes last November, and that total plummeted to just two in December. Brees was a bit better in the playoffs, but there were fears that coming into the 2019 season, the 40-year-old might be on the downswing, and the reason for his decline in performance might be more than normal wear and tear.
Based on this touchdown pass to Michael Thomas against the Jets, I think we can put those fears to rest.
It’s more likely that Brees was injured late last Thanksgiving on a hit following a leaping interception by Falcons safety Damontae Kazee, the regression was the result of that, and all is right in Brees’ world after an offseason to rest and recover.
