This just feels like a tough week. There aren’t a ton of games. There are a lot of road favorites. Spreads are tight. All of those factors mean it could get ugly. The thing is, last week was the first good week of the season. 4-2. The two losses were kind of close. That means no taking the foot off the gas. This could get ugly. Let’s get right to it.
Home teams in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Chicago Bears +4.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES and Under 42.5
This bet is basically crazy. The Eagles came off one of their best performances of the season when they beat the Bills in Buffalo last week. The Bears are absolutely falling apart. Matt Nagy doesn’t trust Mitch Trubisky. Nagy’s press conferences have been a bit unhinged recently. This would be the time to fade the Bears and take the Eagles.
We are going the other way and we are doing so for a few reasons. Sixty-two percent of the bets are on the Eagles and 72 percent of the money is on Philly according to Action Network. It’s a bit of fading the public play. The Bears are officially dead if they lose. Mitch Trubisky has to break out of his funk at some point. Also, the Eagles have been Jeckyl-Hyde this year. It would be a perfect time for them to put up a dud.
For the Bears to stay in this game, they will have to make it ugly. They can do that.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 over CAROLINA PANTHERS and Under 42.5
The bloom has come off the Kyle Allen rose. At this point, talk of Allen taking over for Cam Newton doesn’t exactly sound like a logical argument. This could be an overreaction from Allen’s last two games, but that’s what we are here to do: overreact.
There’s no way this game breaks 42.5 points unless Christian McCaffrey scores 42.5 points himself. The Titans linebackers are athletic enough to hold him to 14 . . . hopefully.
This game feels like it ends as a three-point win either way. It’s not as if Ryan Tannehill suddenly makes the Titans an offensive juggernaut. They are going to try and run the football as much as possible. We know that Allen has a bit of a fumbling problem and the Titans will try and keep him in the pocket with pressure all around him.
10 Point Three Team Tease
Titans-PANTHERS Under 52.5
Bears-EAGLES Under 52.5
Jets-DOLPHINS Under 52.5
We can call this the 52.5 special. We’ve reviewed the first two games in this teaser and we might as well add the Jets-Dolphins game in there as well.
The Dolphins showed some life on offense in the first quarter of their game against the Steelers last week. They promptly decided it was too much life and their offense was completely shut down the rest of the game. They traded their best running back. Their offense line is not very good. They aren’t going to score many points.
The Jets play under a coach who loves to slow things down. They also reportedly tried to trade Le’Veon Bell. This means this will be a Le’Veon Bell game and he will get something like 30 touches this game. It’s how these things work. Running the ball with a slow-paced offense is a nice key to an under.
10 Point Three Team Tease
Bills -0.5 over REDSKINS
Bucs +15.5 over SEAHAWKS
Cowboys +2.5 over GIANTS
Taking the Bills -10.5 on the road is a bit risky even if — as rumored — Dwayne Haskins doesn’t know the Washington playbook. The Bills aren’t made to blow out teams. In fact, they haven’t blown out teams all year. If they are a real AFC playoff threat they should blow out the Redskins. The teaser takes the risk out of that.
Here’s another bet for you in this game: Bills-Reskins under 37.5. The Bills want to run the football. Josh Allen is ranked in the bottom third of the league in almost every advanced quarterback metric out there. The Redskins are going up against the Bills defense — and that Haskins thing is kind of important — so it’s going under.
The Bucs-Seahawks bet relies on Seattle wanting to run the football. They still want to do that even though Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind. The Bucs are good at stopping the run. Essentially the Bucs and Seahawks are kind of the same team, except at the quarterback position. That’s important, but it’s also a 15.5 spread.
We reach into Monday for our last game in this teaser. The Cowboys smoked the Giants in their first meeting this season. Dak Prescott is ranked highly in every advanced quarterback metric. Dallas has a stud running back, a strong wide receiving corps, a very good defensive line, and good linebackers. They aren’t losing against the Giants and Daniel Jones.
Detroit Lions +110 over OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Lions offense has to switch to a passing offense from a running offense since their back depth isn’t exactly great right now. Matthew Stafford has no problem doing that. It isn’t as if the Lions don’t have weapons. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola are all very reliable receivers. The Lions want to stay in the playoff race and at 3-3-1, they have to win the game to do so. They should be able to at least slow down the Raiders running game. Josh Jacobs has been listed as questionable all week.
Derek Carr has been one of the oddest quarterbacks all year. He has a super-high completion percentage but he’s not exactly dangerous. He’s not stretching the field. He relies a lot on Darren Waller. The Lions should have a gameplan to slow the Raiders down.
Green Bay Packers – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over 46.5
The Packers defense got off to a hot start this season. They’ve faded since then. The Chargers defense has been underperforming all year. Green Bay is getting healthy and is also picking up Matt LaFleur’s offense. This total seems very low.
New England Patriots -3 (-135) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
There is no betting against the Patriots until they lose.
Good luck this weekend.
2019 Record: 18-25
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
