We are now just 10 days away from the 2023 NFL draft, which kicks off in Kansas City on Thursday, April 27th at 8 p.m. ET.
This has been one of the more difficult drafts to predict. We still don’t know who the No. 1 pick will be even after the pick was traded from the Bears to the Panthers. Current mock drafts from across the projection spectrum still include close to 25 different prospects listed within the top 10.
With that in mind, here are some thoughts on how I think the draft might play out in 10 days.
Bryce Young will be the top pick
When the Panthers first made the move from No. 9 to the top spot, I expected it was to snag Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud. That opinion has changed in the last couple of weeks, based on projections coming from out of Charlotte as well as the betting lines that now heavily favor Bryce Young to be the Panthers’ pick.
Adam Schefter says QB Bryce Young visiting Texans is a “waste of time”
What Arizona does at No. 3 controls the rest of the top 15
The Cardinals are the linchpin for the rest of the top of the draft. With a rookie GM, rookie head coach and an injured franchise QB, they’re a complete enigma.
Arizona figures to have suitors looking to trade up for the pick. Teams jockeying for the opportunity to land a quarterback of their choice need to get ahead of the Colts at No. 4. The opportunity to acquire extra picks should be quite appealing to GM Monti Ossenfort to build the Cardinal more in his own desire.
But they could also keep the pick and take an impactful defensive player — be it Georgia DT Jalen Carter, Alabama EDGE Will Anderson (who could be the No. 2 pick by Houston) or Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson.
What the Cardinals choose to do has massive ripple effects across what happens in the subsequent 10 or so selections.
Jalen Carter stays in the top 5
After a tumultuous few months that saw Carter go from potential No. 1 overall pick to questionably a top-20 selection, the Georgia DT will wind up being one of the first five names summoned to the podium in the 2023 NFL draft.
If one of the top QBs slides, it will be Anthony Richardson
If one of the four — Young, Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis — winds up being on the board a lot longer than expected, the most likely candidate is Florida’s Richardson. His inexperience and inconsistent accuracy could be bigger drawbacks than his considerable potential can trump for some teams.
A big run on offensive linemen in the middle of the first
While the order in which they come off the board is still wildly variable, I expect at least five offensive linemen to come off the board in the range between pick No. 8 and No. 20. It’s a top-heavy class, especially at tackle.
The five:
- Darnell Wright, Tennessee
- Paris Johnson, Ohio State
- Peter Skoronki, Northwestern
- Broderick Jones, Georgia
- O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida
The depth of the TE class keeps any from going very early
It’s a great year to need a tight end in the draft. While there aren’t any surefire stars, the overall quality and quantity of the class means that there will be enough to go around for the teams looking to add a higher-end option at TE. As a result, guys like Michael Mayer from Notre Dame, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid and giant Darnell Washington from Georgia wind up being drafted a little later than most current projections slot them.
Watch the teams with multiple 1st-round picks trade their later pick
Four teams have multiple picks in the first round:
Houston Texans – No. 2 and 12
Seattle Seahawks – No. 5 and 20
Detroit Lions – No. 6 and 18
Philadelphia Eagles – No. 10 and 30
Look for all four of those teams to be active in wheeling and dealing with their latter picks. All have enough Day 2 firepower already to package those second 1st-rounders to move up, but they also can slide back a few spots, add an additional pick or two, and still get similar value that they would if they stood pat.
The Hendon Hooker mystery
If Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker was 23 and healthy, I have zero doubt he’d be a top-20 overall pick in this draft. Alas, he’s 25 already and likely to miss at least the first half of his rookie season as he recovers from a torn ACL.
He could still be a first-round pick, but that seems very much up in the air right now. There is the perception of a massive dropoff in potential at QB after Hooker–there certainly is in my own rankings–and that could keep him in the first round if a team doesn’t want to risk waiting into the second to nag Hooker.
Wide receiver order
Nearly all recent mock drafts feature Ohio State wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the first wide receiver off the board. After that, it’s open season on the order.
Some combination of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston and Jalin Hyatt typically comprises the next grouping. There will be a lot of team preference that comes into play here. One team might have Johnston next on the board but Flowers ranked much lower, while the next team on the board has Addison atop that group and Hyatt nowhere near them.
Teams tend to favorable measurables at the position, and that means Johnston is the safest prediction to go next. It’s very hard to be definitive on the order, or how early that second group starts to come off the board.
Candidates for surprise first-rounders
One of the questions I get asked most on radio appearances and podcasts is, who could be a surprise first-round pick?
Earlier in the evaluation period, my standard answers were Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness and Tennessee OL Darnell Wright. Now those two are consensus top-20 picks; my final mock draft currently has them both in the top 10. So I’ve had to find new answers. Here are three:
Arkansas LB Drew Sanders
TCU OL Steve Avila
Michigan DT Mazi Smith
Surprise fallers
As we sniff around for draft info and attempt to sort the smoke from the fire, draft analysts tend to hear some common themes. One of them is players we overrate in our projections. The three most common names I hear in reference to prospects that the media has slotted too high in mocks:
Clemson LB Trenton Simpson: he could be on the board into the third round
Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave: I’m not allowed to quote anonymous sources, but let’s just say there’s considerable skepticism that he’s valued any higher than Day 3 based on his lack of experience, production and drop rate of nearly 20 percent
Those first two jibe with my own evaluations. The third does not: Penn State CB Joey Porter.
