The New England Patriots couldn’t have handled the departure from Tom Brady in a more graceful manner. On paper, Bill Belichick seems to have moved on from Brady in a masterful way, letting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers overpay for Brady’s final years, which could feature a precipitous decline. Meanwhile, Belichick is happy to see if he can prove Cam Newton, 33, is not experiencing a precipitous decline.
The difference between the Bucs’ bet on Brady and the Patriots’ bet on Newton? New England signed Newton to a one-year deal worth between $1.05 million and $7.5 million, depending on how many bonuses the quarterback hits in his contract. Brady, meanwhile, will make $50 million — fully guaranteed — over the next two years. Of course, Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time. But Newton has made a Super Bowl appearance and won NFL MVP.
He’s going to make for a fascinating storyline this training camp. Here are 10 takeaways from Newton signing with the Patriots.
1. The price was right on Newton — but that they probably still like what he can offer
The Patriots may have valued Newton, at most, in the same way that the Oakland Raiders valued Marcus Mariota ($7.5 million in 2020) or the way that the Miami Dolphins valued Ryan Fitzpatrick $7 million in 2020). Essentially, these three teams have given fringe money: They don’t know if the player will be the starter or if he’ll be the back. They don’t know if he’ll be able to retain the starter job, in the event he wins it.
But I think the Patriots are more excited to work with Newton than the contract lets on. Belichick has long praised Newton’s playing style. The coach knows as well as anyone how hard the quarterback can be to contain when he’s at his best. Belichick knows exactly how special Newton can be under an offensive mind like Josh McDaniels — and during a time in the NFL when it’s never been easier to be a passer.
2. Newton’s arrival means the Jarrett Stidham era is on hold
When a player of Newton’s caliber joins a team, he’s going to be the starter. Maybe Newton’s injuries led him to look like a mess in 2019. But we need only look back to 2018 to see he’s one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. He completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,395 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while adding 101 carries for 488 yards and four touchdowns over 14 games. If he can get back to that standard of play, then the Patriots will have a really solid starter. And that means Stidham won’t be the starter in 2020.
3. But the Patriots didn’t cancel Stidham
He’s not finished. His career still has life. The Patriots probably don’t think they can get Stidham ready to serve as the starter in Week 1 — in part because of the novel coronavirus pandemic and in part because few fourth-round picks (at quarterback) are ready to be the starter in their second year. It was always a natural trajectory for the Patriots to take Stidham along slowly. New England’s decision to add Newton isn’t a condemnation of Stidham’s lack of development. That said, it certainly opens up the door for Newton to win over the Patriots, in the event Stidham’s development does go south.
4. Let’s put aside the aspersions that Newton won’t be a cultural fit
Newton loves to win. He loves to have fun playing football. He brings good energy. It’s going to work nicely under Belichick.
Newton surely knows how important it is for him to do exactly what Belichick says. This will work for a year. And if Newton doesn’t like working for Belichick, they can part ways in 2021.
5. The only problem for Newton will be his health, which the Patriots will manage like he’s a fragile toddler
Newton’s physicality is a huge factor in how he plays the game. He’s such a gifted athlete, but there’s a good chance the Patriots will be concerned with how they use Newton to ensure he doesn’t fall apart. New England will be careful with how they use the quarterback as a runner. His contributions as a passer will come into focus in a much bigger way than ever.
6. Newton’s injuries disrupted a breakthrough in efficiency
As mentioned, Newton’s 2018 season was an impressive one. His completion percentage had never been higher at 67.9. His previous single-season high was in 2013 when he completed 61.7% of his passes. It’s actually wild just how efficient Newton got without sacrificing much in terms of yards per attempt, which finished at 7.2 – the fourth-best figure in his nine-year career. Belichick probably saw that 2018 season and thought Newton looked better than ever, even if some of his statistics (like his rushing totals) were down.
7. This is good news for Sony Michel and N’Keal Harry
Newton has a history of getting young pass-catchers involved in a way Brady did not. Receivers Kelvin Benjamin and D.J. Moore and running back Christian McCaffrey were all excellent in their rookie seasons. Brady, meanwhile, has never seen a rookie receiver exceed what Aaron Dobson did in 2013, when he had 37 catches for 519 yards and four touchdowns.
Newton’s ability to get youngsters involved will help Harry, who had a rough rookie season that featured just 12 receptions. And Harry, who is a big-bodied receiver, resembles the stature and playing style of some of Newton’s favorite targets in Carolina: Benjamin and Devin Funchess.
For Michel, the arrival of Newton means an emphasis on the running game. Even if the Patriots use Newton sparingly as a runner, they’re still going to be running him much more than they would have run Brady. Not only will that mean the Patriots use fullbacks and tight ends more often, but it also means Newton will take some attention off Michel.
8. But bad news for Brian Hoyer
Prior to Newton’s signing, Hoyer figured to be the backup behind Stidham. Now what? Hoyer is likely to be the third-stringer on a team that doesn’t always carry three quarterbacks. It’s a tough turn of events for the journeyman.
9. The Patriots have put themselves in a can’t-lose situation
We’ve been through the financials: Newton is criminally underpaid. The Patriots don’t have to worry about losing guaranteed money if the signing doesn’t work out, because they basically didn’t give him any guaranteed money. But this is likely to work out, because Newton is intensely motivated and talented. At best, the Patriots can use Newton to propel themselves to a Super Bowl before signing a long-term extension to keep him around. At worst, they’ll cut him in training camp or place him on injured reserve, losing no more than $1 million.
10. Newton can use this opportunity to be Tom Brady’s replacement — or to get a lucrative contract elsewhere
The assumption, at this point, is that Newton will use the 2020 season with the Patriots to recuperate his earning power. Look at how that worked for Jamie Collins, who accepted the veteran minimum in 2019, only to earn a lucrative contract with the Detroit Lions this offseason. But if Newton wants to be a Patriot for the rest of his career — or for a few years — there could be an opportunity for that. Kyle Van Noy is a nice example. The Patriots rebuilt his value, but signed him to an extension when it was clear they still valued him more than the rest of the NFL.
New England should have a fair amount of cap space in 2021 if they want to figure out how to retain Newton. There’s a chance he plays well and gels with Belichick and McDaniels, and they all agree to keep working together.
