What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 9? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 9 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 9 Expert Picks & Predictions
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Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 42-41
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Penn State at Michigan State
LINE: Penn State -6.5
ATS PICK: Michigan State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
That’s right … keep doubting Penn State.
Michigan did cover last week thanks to its late comeback, and Iowa came within a two-point conversion of covering a few weeks ago, but that’s sort of the point here. Penn State is coming off two straight nasty games and gets a week off after this. Michigan State is at home after getting two weeks off to recharge. Mark Dantonio’s defense is beyond overdue for something special.
9. Liberty at Rutgers
LINE: Liberty -7
ATS PICK: Liberty
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is insane, right?
It’s LIBERTY, and Rutgers is a Big Ten team.
The Flames just gave up 44 to Maine. Their best win the year is over Buffalo. They got rolled by Louisiana and shut out be what’s now an awful Syracuse team.
They got pushed by New Mexico and New Mexico State – no one gets pushed by New Mexico and New Mexico State unless they’re playing each other.
The problem is that Rutgers, really, really, really can’t score, putting up seven points or fewer in five of its last six games. This might not seem right, but you also might be kicking yourself if you miss out on what might be more obvious than we all think.
8. UCF at Temple
LINE: UCF -10.5
ATS PICK: Temple
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is Part One of the double-digit home dog portion of the program – Part Two coming up next.
Temple might just win this outright, and it’s getting 10.5.
It’s a great home team so far, stunning Maryland back when it seemed like that offense was going to be a thing, and it handed Memphis its first loss of the season a few weeks ago. The Owls are 4-0 at home, they have the firepower to hang with the Knights, and they should be able to keep this within single-digits in what should be a firefight.
7. USC at Colorado
LINE: USC -13.5
ATS PICK: Colorado
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Colorado has become a hot mess. The offense has fizzled to nothing, the defense is consistently getting hammered for 30 points or more, and the team has lost three straight and four of its last five. And …
USC stinks on the road. It’s a Friday night game and the home team is getting 13.5 – don’t mess with the trend.
Granted, playing Notre Dame and Washington had something to do with the 0-3 road record, but there’s a loss to BYU in there, too. USC is 4-0 at home, though – it’s just a different team in LA.
By the way, USC is going to miss the snow that’s expected for the weekend, but the team is about to play in 45-degree weather.
It”s going to be 91 in Los Angeles tomorrow.
6. Auburn at LSU
LINE: LSU -10.5
ATS PICK: Auburn
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
At some point Joe Burrow is going to Joe Burrow and he won’t be the most accurate passer in the history of college football – which he’s on pace to be, at the moment. Like the Auburn defensive line that might be the best in college football, and give some respect to those other Tigers who have the makeup to stroll into this and potentially pull it off outright. It’s the SEC in the afternoon game. It’s going to be interesting.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Texas Tech at Kansas
LINE: Texas Tech -4.5
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s no real rhyme or reason to what Kansas is doing.
It showed up at Boston College and rocked last month in a 48-24 win, and last week it ran wild as it almost pulled off the shocker against Texas.
But this is still Kansas. You know, lose to Coastal Carolina, struggle against Indiana State, get annihilated by TCU … Kansas.
It still has just one win over an FBS team this season.
It’s not like Texas Tech is burning it up, either, losing four of its last five. However, it was able to push Baylor to the brink a few weeks ago, and it managed to beat Oklahoma State by ten.
Can Texas Tech stop the run? Sort of. It’s a better defense under head coach Matt Wells than it’s been in recent years.
Can Kansas stop the pass? Not really. The Big 12 offenses are coming down hard on the Jayhawk secondary, with Sam Ehlinger throwing for close to 400 yards and four scores, and TCU – who doesn’t have the pop to throw for 300 yards against air – rolling for 306 yards and two scores a few weeks ago.
Beware, there’s a risk here that Kansas comes out and has for its pregame meal whatever it had against Boston College, but until it becomes a consistent thing, you’re never all that wrong going against the Rock Chalk.
NEXT: Is this team actually good now? Nah …
4. Arizona State at UCLA
LINE: Arizona State -3.5
ATS PICK: Arizona State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is UCLA starting to be come … okay?
Beating Stanford really isn’t that big of a deal, and it was just the second win of the season, but the running game is starting to work, the offense just isn’t that bad now, and there are small signs that the 2-5 team might be starting to come around.
But the last time we saw the 2019 UCLA Bruins at home was two games ago in a 48-31 loss to Oregon State.
The fear here is that Arizona State is a wee bit broken after getting dominated by Utah on the road.
Jayden Daniels completed just 4-18 passes for 25 yards, the O couldn’t go anywhere, and the team was manhandled by a sharp Utah squad in bad weather conditions.
The Sun Devils have a weird habit of playing up or down to their competition, and they’ve been relatively flaky so far. However, do you really want to take the chance that UCLA found something that worked against a banged up Stanford team?
Nah.
The Arizona State defense has the talent and upside to end this fast.
You’re not asking for anything crazy here. You’re asking for a good Pac-12 South team to beat a mediocre-to-bad Pac-12 South team by four points.
Pac-12 is gonna Pac-12 on you at times … but not here.
NEXT: You broke my heart, Wahoos … you broke my heart …
3. Virginia at Louisville
LINE: Virginia -3.5
ATS PICK: Virginia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Who hasn’t had their heart broken by Virginia this year?
The Cavaliers were massive underdogs against Notre Dame, came out hot, couldn’t block in the second half, and ended up losing ATS by one.
How were they such a mild favorite against a bad Miami team? The Canes won outright 17-9.
And then, just as it seemed like Bronco Mendenhall’s club was way overrated and overblown, it took the ball away five times in a blowout win over Duke.
No, this might not be the dominant force team that was destined to be the ACC’s No. 2 to Clemson, but when it wins, it’s doing it by more than four points so far.
Louisville might be coming off the 45-10 loss to Clemson, but it took out Wake Forest in a wild shootout a few weeks ago, beat Boston College in a fun 41-39 win, and have been far better than expected under Scott Satterfield. Now he gets the Cavs at home with a shot to get a fifth win and take a huge step towards becoming bowl eligible.
The weather is supposed to be a bit of a factor, but that might only keep the score down – it shouldn’t affect Virginia.
Here’s the one thing that matters here. Louisville’s offensive line can’t stop anyone from making big things happen in the backfield, and Virginia is fourth in the nation in sacks and ninth in tackles for loss.
Virginia really might be the second-best team in the ACC.
NEXT: The team that’s about to lookahead is …
2. Maryland at Minnesota
LINE: Minnesota -16.5
ATS PICK: Maryland
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You’re being asked to do something here that you really, really don’t want to.
You’re being asked to think that Maryland has something in place to be good at college football against an unbeaten team on the road.
The Terps haven’t shown America anything since blowing out Syracuse 63-20. It turtled against Temple, got destroyed by Penn State, and has a lovely habit of disappointing over and over again so far this year.
But it’s Maryland so like always, injuries have played a big role in the rough run. Now, it gets back QB Josh Jackson and RB Anthony McFarland to add a few more options to the mix. This game is more than that, though.
Are you really so sure that Minnesota is that good?
Teams get better, sharper and stronger sometimes as seasons go on, and the Gophers have found their running game, but it wasn’t all that long ago that it needed everything in the bag to get by South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern.
And the really good Minnesota win so far is … Nebraska without Adrian Martinez? That will have to do.
It’s been a ridiculously easy run so far for the Gophers, and the Maryland game is supposed to be a part of it. But with the week off to come, and everyone assuming PJ Fleck’s club will be 8-0 when Penn State comes to Minneapolis, this appears to be the perfect time – (cough) Illinois-Wisconsin (COUGH) – for just a wee bit of a letdown.
Maryland could win this outright, but getting 16.5 should be good enough.
NEXT: The team isn’t that bad …
Week 9 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
AAC | ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | MW | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 9 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. Texas at TCU
LINE: Texas -1.5
ATS PICK: Texas
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Seriously, America. Texas isn’t that bad.
Oh sure, it struggled way, way, way too much with Kansas last week, but the team does that from time to time. The Longhorns needed a minor miracle to get out alive with a 50-48 win, while TCU did what you’re supposed to do with the Jayhawks a few weeks ago and whacked them around 51-14.
Now, the belief seems to be that the Horned Frogs are going to beat the Longhorns.
The line opened up at TCU -1.5 and quickly shifted the other way. You’re still only asking for Texas to win this by two points.
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Oh sure, Texas isn’t playing a lick of D, but the two losses so far came to Oklahoma and LSU, and there haven’t been that many problems against anyone else outside of Kansas.
TCU, on the other hand, has lost three of its last four. One of the losses was to a still-unbeaten SMU, and another to a strong Iowa State, but last week the O fell flat in a loss to Kansas State.
Again, Texas isn’t that bad.
Realistically, no, the Longhorns aren’t going to win by a point, so you’re just asking for them to win on the road.
TCU has a decent defense, it’s great against the run, and the fear here is that the ground attack will rip up the Longhorns like Kansas did. But Texas is better on third downs, it has a real passing game, and its problem – in general – is against the efficient downfield passing teams, and that’s not TCU.
Again, you’re only asking for Texas to win. If it doesn’t, Tom Herman will have more problems than you will for making the call on his team.
