What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 6? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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There aren’t a ton of games this week, but there are a whole lot of good games along with a whole lot of massive potential blowouts to try figuring out.
There’s one key theme throughout most of the picks this week. Rest.
Who should come back revitalized after getting two weeks off, and which teams are on a roll and are probably in better shape to keep the momentum going?
Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 26-27
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Bowling Green at Notre Dame
LINE: Notre Dame -44.5, o/u: 60.5
ATS PICK: Notre Dame
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If you’ve been reading this over the years, you know that I always preach to go with the huge underdogs in games like this. If someone wants to give more than 40 points – like UConn getting 42 against UCF last weekend – you say thank you, take them, and move on. Too many things have to go right/wrong for the favorite to win by a massive spread, and even if it’s a total wipeout, it still might not be enough.
Yeah, blow all that off here.
Bowling Green is miserable. It just got crushed by Kent State by 42, the offense is going nowhere, and the secondary has been torched despite not playing anyone with a high-powered passing game. The Irish whacked New Mexico 66-14 – channel that performance.
Keeping this same this-week-only change of heart in mind …
9. Kent State at Wisconsin
LINE: Wisconsin -36.5, o/u: 59.6
ATS PICK: Wisconsin
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The take-the-massive-underdog theory usually applies to 40 or more, but this is still a big number to hit against a Kent State team that has enough of an offense to get in the end zone a few times. But here’s all you need to know …
Kent State is dead last in college football against the run.
Wisconsin, apparently, is okay at this whole ground game thing.
Be a little worried that the Badgers will get up fast and shut it down to get ready for Michigan State, but the Wisconsin twos should be able to keep cranking up the numbers on the ground. It’s hard to not try when you’re running the ball with your backups.
8. North Carolina at Georgia Tech
LINE: North Carolina -10.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: North Carolina
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is North Carolina sad and sleepy after coming so brutally close to knocking off Clemson? Is this the week Georgia Tech figures something out and joins us in the 2019 college football season?
There’s reason to be concerned with the Tar Heels, mainly because they’ve lost three straight have yet to play a game decided by more than six points.
Don’t go with the North Carolina-lost-to-Clemson-by-one-and-Tech-lost-by-38 thing, and do just assume that a 24-2 Yellow Jacket loss to Temple means much, or the home loss to Citadel shows that …
Just go with the Tar Heels against a team that hasn’t shown anything yet offensively.
7. Utah State at LSU
LINE: LSU -27.5, o/u: 72.5
ATS PICK: Utah State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is the LSU secondary finally going to start to play?
Teams have had to bomb away to try keeping up, but other than Alabama and Texas, no one on the Tiger schedule is better equipped to fire away at will than Utah State.
This is sort of a strange sandwich game for LSU. It’s had two weeks off to rest up after obliterating Vanderbilt by 28, and it has Florida up next. This should be a sharpen-up-and-get-out game, but Jordan Love and the Utah State offense – 12th in the nation in passing – should be able to do just enough to not get completely destroyed.
You’ll probably have to wait it out until the very end, but the Aggies won’t quit against the Tiger backups.
6. Air Force at Navy
LINE: Air Force -3.5, o/u: 44.5
ATS PICK: Air Force
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Air Force is proven, and Navy isn’t.
The two do the exact same things right. They’re both great at running the ball, they both stop the run, they’re both connecting on their deep shots when available, don’t commit penalties, and dominate the tempo and time of possession battles.
Air Force has three more turnovers, but it also played one extra game. More importantly …
Air Force has hung tough with good teams, and Navy hasn’t.
This is a true toss-up, but Air Force beat Colorado in Boulder and pushed Boise State really, really had on the blue turf. Navy is coming off a 12-point loss to Memphis.
Go with the proven good team over the relatively unproven good team.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Arkansas State at Georgia State
LINE: Arkansas State -7.5, o/u: 70.5
ATS PICK: Arkansas State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Arkansas State has overcome so much.
It’s suffered through tragedy off the field, and adversity on it, but through it all, the team keeps on playing well, coming off a 50-43 shootout win on the road at Troy.
The Red Wolves pushed an SMU team that blasted TCU, and it lost at Georgia – no shame there.
So what’s the problem against a Georgia State team that showed its real self in a blowout loss at Western Michigan and a loss to a mediocre Texas State team? The Panthers have had two weeks off to rest up, and this is the fourth road game in five dates for Arkansas State.
Don’t worry about it.
The ASU passing game keeps on clicking no matter who’s under center, the Georgia State pass defense isn’t anything special, and ASU is on a roll. The break for the Red Wolves comes next week – they’ll be fine fighting through this.
NEXT: Speaking of Georgia State …
4. Georgia at Tennessee
LINE: Georgia -24.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS PICK: Georgia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sometimes getting time off is overrated and overblown, but if you’re Georgia and coming off a physical-tough game against Notre Dame, having the two weeks to get ready for the date at Tennessee is a big plus.
But if Tennessee really that bad?
After all, Georgia is national championship-good, and it beat Vanderbilt easily on the road … and only won by 24.
Tennessee did get whacked around by Florida by 31, but it’s had two weeks off to get ready to try turning its season around. It has the nothing-to-lose thing going its way, and it’s had time to try figuring out something that consistently works, but …
Nah.
The Bulldogs beat the Vols by 26 last year and won 41-0 two years ago. The UGA lines are better this time around, Tennessee isn’t getting into the backfield enough, and this has the potential to be a Bulldog defensive mauling.
Don’t think too hard about this. Georgia is just that good, and Tennessee is just that mediocre.
NEXT: They’re not THAT bad … are they?
3. Northwestern at Nebraska
LINE: Nebraska -7.5, o/u: 49.5
ATS PICK: Nebraska
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Theory time.
Since there wasn’t anything else happening last Saturday night, everyone saw Nebraska get embarrassed and rolled by Ohio State, and no one seems ready to dive in big and invest against a Northwestern team that’s just plain awful.
The Wildcats are beaten up, the passing game is non-existent, and the plucky-tough defense isn’t able to overcome the other issues.
Okay, so many are also scared off by Nebraska’s struggles against Illinois and collapse against Colorado, but this can’t be stressed enough …
Northwestern is awful.
The Wildcats have the nation’s least-efficient passing game, but playing Michigan State and Wisconsin will do that.
Even so, after getting beaten up by the Spartans and Badgers, now they have to go on the road to deal with a Husker team that should be able to run just enough, and should be able to generate enough defensive pressure, to win this by more than a touchdown.
NEXT: Yeah, the offense should be just that good …
2. Pitt at Duke
LINE: Duke -3.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: Duke
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even if this doesn’t quite work out as planned, the investment opportunity is too great to not take the shot.
Maybe, just maybe, Duke has something figured out.
The 42-3 loss to Alabama gets thrown out – that’s Alabama, whatever.
Beating North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee and Virginia Tech might not seem like that big a deal, but the last two games were on the road, and the offense was unstoppable in both wins.
QB Quentin Harris has been fantastic – he’s been better than Daniel Jones was over his four games last year, and Danny Dimes didn’t have to deal with the Crimson Tide – and the Pitt offense … isn’t.
The Panthers have a way of playing up or down to the opponent, rising up and rocking against UCF, battling well against Penn State, and then struggling against Delaware.
This is Pitt’s second road game, it’s Duke’s first game at home in weeks, and considering the last three Blue Devil games were brutally ugly blowouts, take the shot that the 3.5 is Las Vegas taunting you.
NEXT: Now it gets serious …
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 6 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. Boise State at UNLV
LINE: Boise State -22.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS PICK: Boise State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Okay, no more joking around here.
Boise State-UNLV joins Washington-Stanford as the last games of the day, which means you’re either going to be chasing, or you followed the advice given with the rest of these picks and you’ll be playing with house money.
That means there’s a responsibility here to nail the No. 1 pick this week, especially after going all in on the idea that Virginia’s pass rush was going to give Notre Dame problems last week, and not the other way around.
Sorry … NO ONE, not even Irish insiders, saw that coming in the second half.
If you’re looking to get in on sports betting action this weekend, be sure to sign up with BetMGM to take part in any of these games or other action on the schedule.
Again, one of the key aspects to this week is rest. A whole slew of teams got time off just when they looked like they were winding down, and Boise State was definitely one them.
Now it gets to go to Vegas to face a team that’s been historically just flaky enough under Tony Sanchez to pull off something weird out of a hat, but it sure hasn’t happened so far.
Seriously, who gives up 30 points to Northwestern?
Who makes Wyoming look like the Kansas City Chiefs – okay, pumping the brakes on that – in a 53-17 loss?
It’s not like the Rebels are dealing with Oklahoma, Ohio State and Alabama here, and yet they’ve been annihilated by a combined score of 126-48 over the last three games.
UNLV has one of the nation’s least-efficient passing games, it can’t stop turning the ball over, and it’s not generating a lick of pressure into the backfield.
Boise State is ultra-efficient, is amazing at getting to the quarterback, has one fo the nation’s most effective defenses, and … it’s rested.
