What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions
Contact @PeteFiutak
If it’s possible to have a dog days weekend of college football, this is it.
There aren’t any massive showdowns, so this is the week to focus on the grind as conference play starts to kick in.
There’s some good value out there, but you have to look for it.
After last week’s disastrously weird string of events – Washington State collapsing when up, North Carolina not being able to get by Appalachian State, SMU beating TCU – the pivot starts now.
Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 20-23
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Ohio State at Nebraska
LINE: Ohio State -17.5, o/u: 66
ATS PICK: Ohio State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Ohio State has a defense, and so far, Nebraska doesn’t.
The Husker offense has been fantastic so far, but the Buckeye machine hasn’t come close to being slowed down with parts that are overall better than what Nebraska brings.
The two offenses will go toe-to-toe, but you’re going to like the Buckeyes with the 17.5 because of Chase Young and a Buckeye defense that leads the nation in sacks and is second in tackles for loss. Expect Ohio State to get to Adrian Martinez enough to be a bother.
Speaking of Big Ten defenses …
9. Indiana at Michigan State
LINE: Michigan State -14, o/u: 44
ATS PICK: Michigan State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s always a little bit scary to rely on the Michigan State offense – see the Arizona State game – but the defense has been a reliable rock allowing ten points or fewer in three of the four games. The one outlier was against Western Michigan in a 51-17 blowout.
The Indiana offense is fine against the UConns and Ball States of the world, but on the road, expect fewer 17 points and expect the Spartan offense to do what it did against Northwestern last week and efficiently push past 30.
8. Florida Atlantic at Charlotte
LINE: Charlotte -1, o/u: 65.5
ATS PICK: Florida Atlantic
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s a little bit of a reason to worry here with a Charlotte team that’s playing well and be just that good, but hasn’t played anyone great yet.
The offense geared it up in a 56-41 loss to Appalachian State, and it’s no sin to get pasted by Clemson, but beating Gardner-Webb and UMass didn’t show too much outside of the big offense.
It’s the same thing for FAU with losses to Ohio State and UCF and wins over Ball State and Wagner, but you’re basically asking for the more talented Owls to win this on the road while getting a point. It’s not the surest of sure things – FAU lost at home to Charlotte last year with bowl eligilbilty on the line – but Lane Kiffin’s team has yet to show what it can really do.
7. Buffalo at Miami University
LINE: Buffalo -2.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS PICK: Buffalo
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
To dive deep into the analytics here and to go way too granular, why take Buffalo in this?
Just because.
Forget the 76-5 loss to Ohio State and the blowout losses to Iowa and Cincinnati, the RedHawks haven’t been able to show much of anything offensively so far with the one win coming against Tennessee Tech.
Buffalo pulled off one of the weirdest wins of last week as it throttled a Temple team coming off a win over Maryland coming off a win over Syracuse team that shut out Liberty who beat Buffalo 35-17 and …
MU is at home, and don’t go heavy here if you do, but go with the team that just hammered the team that beat the team that … just because.
Okay … and because UB’s offense is fantastic on third downs and has what might be the best defense in the MAC.
6. Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt
LINE: Vanderbilt -6.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS PICK: Vanderbilt
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You know how Northern Illinois used to be this killer MAC team with a great running game and dangerous defense that lived in backfields? It hasn’t shown up yet.
Granted, it’s hard to judge too much after going against Utah and Nebraska on the road, but it was a struggle to get by Illinois State, too. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has shown you next to nothing.
Georgia, at Purdue, LSU. All losses, all blowouts, all bad. But at home, like the SEC team by a touchdown against a MAC offense that’s the second-worst in the nation in third down conversions and can’t run a lick.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. NC State at Florida State
LINE: Florida State -6.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS PICK: NC State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You’re never, ever supposed to chase, because you’re investing out of desperation and you’re not going to make rational decisions.
You’re never, ever supposed to invest with emotion, because you can’t make a pick happen – you can only analyze and read the options on the table and make a best possible judgement.
Throw all of that out the window here.
We had a deal, FSU. You’re supposed to play every game really, really close, and then either blow it late, or almost collapse. And then came last week and the decent 35-24 performance over Louisville to cover. NC State is better than Louisville, though … probably.
We had a deal, NC State. You’re supposed to lose a slew of key parts and then rebuild in a big hurry with solid lines and enough offensive talent to be explosive. And then came last week when you struggled against Ball State right after getting destroyed by West Virginia.
FSU really might be one of the ACC’s better teams once it gets all its stuff together. and Alex Hornibrook is a veteran passer who can handle himself just fine, but out of pure spite and lots of chasing, assume the Wolfpack can potentially win this outright, much less cover the 6.5.
NEXT: Hold your nose and just survive the stink …
4. UConn at UCF
LINE: UCF -43.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: UConn
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And the line keeps going UP?!
America laughed at UCF -40, got it to around 42, and at the time this is being written, it’s at 43.5.
As if destroying poor UConn will make up for all the pain and sadness of being embarrassed by the Pitt special.
First of all, you should know the theory by now – if someone wants to give you 43.5 points, you don’t ask questions, say thank you, and move on.
Too many things can go right/wrong to get there. For example, even a total wipeout – like 58-16 or 63-20 – still doesn’t cover it. The other part about this is that UConn’s defense just isn’t that awful this year.
It was able to keep things in check in the 38-3 loss at Indiana last week, and it gave Illinois a hard time in the 31-23 loss.
UCF dropkicked Florida A&M by 62, but even when it annihilated FAU, it was by 34.
If the Knights really do win 50-3, just laugh it off as a delightful blip in the matrix. But assume the UConn team coming off the bus up 43.5 can at least be slightly less than totally miserable.
Want a 2nd opinion on who to bet in the UConn vs UCF game?
Click here to get WinnersAndWhiners.com’s predictions on the side, total, first half, and exotic bets! All Free!
NEXT: Unless Pac-12 goes Pac-12 … Part 1
3. USC at Washington
LINE: Washington -10, o/u: 61
ATS PICK: Washington
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Don’t overthink this.
Washington is fantastic. The loss to Cal was to a killer defense in a weird game with a massive rain delay that seemed to throw everything off. At the end of the rainbow, the winner of the Oregon-Washington game on October 19th probably wins the Pac-12 title and could and should be 12-1 with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
USC has been magnificent … at home.
Granted, three of the four games have been in LA, but the Fresno State win was a fight against an offensively-challenged team, the shootout victory over Stanford doesn’t seem like that big a deal now, and the win over Utah was just sort of strange.
The main guys in the Ute backfield got hurt, Matt Fink came in and turned into Carson Palmer, and the Trojans kept their historical dominance in Los Angeles over Utah alive.
On the road? USC lost to BYU.
BYU just got rocked at home by Washington 45-19.
The Pac-12 might go Pac-12 and USC’s passing attack could certainly click if everything goes right – the receivers are the real deal – but take the far better team that’s playing far better overall at home.
Want a 2nd opinion on who to bet in the USC vs Washington game?
Click here to get WinnersAndWhiners.com’s predictions on the side, total, first half, and exotic bets! All Free!
NEXT: Unless Pac-12 goes Pac-12 … Part 2
2. UCLA at Arizona
LINE: Arizona -6.5, o/u: 71
ATS PICK: Arizona
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There might have just been a massive overcorrection by the Los Angeles market.
For anyone who stayed up and saw one of the most amazing game of all-time, it’ll be hard to shake the idea that UCLA didn’t just turn a corner.
The Bruins made it look SO easy over the final 20 minutes in the 67-63 comeback thriller over Washington State.
And there’s reason to like what Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the UCLA offense might do against an Arizona defense that got picked apart by Hawaii’s midrange passing game and dealt with Texas Tech two weeks ago.
Or, it was a magical moment in Pullman when it all worked for the Bruin attack, and the carriage turned back into a pumpkin at about 3 am East Coast time.
Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts and Washington State’s Anthony Gordon went off on the UCLA defense, and Arizona’s Khalil Tate should be able to do the same. In the midst of a terrific year so far, Tate is playing well, the team has had two weeks off, and it’s at home.
The line started out at Arizona -9, and it’s dropping, again, partly because it’s getting hammered by those who saw or read about what happened last week.
But Arizona was able to keep the Texas Tech offense in check, and it’s very, very possible that UCLA reverts back to its 14-points-whether-it-needs-them-or-not form.
NEXT: It worked out just fine last week, so …
Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. Virginia at Notre Dame
LINE: Notre Dame -12, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: Virginia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s always a little bit nerve-racking when everyone seems to agree.
It’s purely anecdotal, but try finding anyone outside of the true believer parts of Irish Nation who thinks this will be a Notre Dame wipeout.
A few of our Friend of the Program experts like the Irish to cover, but there’s nothing enthusiastic about it. Notre Dame is coming off the tough game against Georgia, and Virginia is coming off its letdown sandwich-game survival of Old Dominion, and now this looks dangerous.
Virginia just has one of those teams under head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
If you’re looking to get in on sports betting action this weekend, be sure to sign up with BetMGM to take part in any of these games or other action on the schedule.
The Cavaliers do just about everything well, but they’re not all that splash.
They’re tied for the nation-lead in sacks, they don’t get hit by a ton of penalties, they move the chains, control the clock, and aren’t all that horrible when it comes to taking the ball away.
Most importantly, this team stuffs the run, and the Irish are struggling to get their running backs going.
Throw in a veteran in Bryce Perkins – who might just be the best quarterback in this game – and the makeup is there to pull off the upset and win this outright, much less cover the 12.
But that’s what a whole lot of other smart people seem to think too – and again, that’s always a wee bit of a nervous cause for concern.
But it was the same way last week, too, when Notre Dame seems like an obvious lose-but-cover at Georgia.
You’re asking for what might be the ACC’s second-best team to not get steamrolled. Virginia can do that.
