What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 4? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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Oooooookay, enough of that.
After a strange week when Air Force (Colorado), Temple (Maryland), Kansas (Boston College) and Arizona State (Michigan State) not only covered, but won outright, now it’s time to go for the stand up doubles.
No crazy calls here. No wacky theories. Nothing but by-the-book, rock-solid winners to get back to a sense of normalcy …
And then Tulane can’t come up with a fourth down stop and pulls off an epic final two plays to screw up what should’ve been a locked-down Houston +5.5 cover. Moving on …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 17-16
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Louisville at Florida State
LINE: Florida State -6.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS PICK: Louisville
Florida State really has shown just enough – especially on offense – to think that a corner is about to be turned. It’s a home game, it’s a must-win, and it’s against a Louisville squad that’s okay, but hasn’t yet proven itself against anyone who’s all that great … like ULM.
The Seminoles have yet to prove they can beat anyone – other than ULM, of course – much less do it convincingly. Always hate the idea of picking a team to cover but not win – FSU should pull this off – but it would hardly be stunning if the Cardinals won this outright.
9. Baylor at Rice
LINE: Baylor -25, o/u: 58.5
ATS PICK: Baylor
This is an anti-Rice pick. The Owls were able to stay within 20 of Wake Forest, but they don’t have the offense to keep up in any way once Baylor starts to get rolling. The Bears haven’t played anyone yet – Stephen F. Austin and UTSA – but they’ve hung up 56 and 63 points on the board, respectively.
Rice has scored a grand total of 41 points in three games.
This appears to be just enough of a special Baylor ofBostonfense to be able to push past the 25, and then it’s just a question of whether or not the team wants to make a statement before getting into Big 12 play.
8. Bowling Green at Kent State
LINE: Kent State -10.5, o/u: 62.5
ATS PICK: Bowling Green
Let’s just make this simple. When was the last time Kent State beat an FBS team by double-digits? Buffalo 44-20 in 2016.
However, here’s the crazy part if you care about trends and historical sides of things. Since the amazing run to the MAC championship in 2012, the Golden Flashes have just ten wins over FCS teams in those seven-plus years. Five of them were by ten or more.
This team hasn’t shown much offensively so far, and while Bowling Green has been awful – scoring just seven points against Kansas State and Louisiana Tech – now it’s playing someone its own size.
7. Notre Dame at Georgia
LINE: Georgia -14.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS PICK: Notre Dame
There’s a chance Georgia is just that special and it pulls a 2018 Clemson on the Irish.
There’s no real Notre Dame running attack to speak of – at least compared to last year – when it comes to getting past the Dawg defensive front, and it’s very, very possible that the No. 3 team goes about its business with little to no drama. However …
14.5 points are just too many to give away to a team with the lines to hold up.
Go ahead and take the shot that the Irish defense is just solid enough to keep this from getting out of hand, and take the shot that this becomes more of a methodical Bulldog performance than anything spectacular.
6. Western Michigan at Syracuse
LINE: Syracuse -5, o/u: 65.5
ATS PICK: Syracuse
Granted, you’re taking a bit of a risk here with a Syracuse team that’s shown a fat load of jack squat offensively so far, including in the shutout win over Liberty. How much will the Orange be down after the losses to Maryland and Clemson? Is Western Michigan’s offense really as explosive as the 57-10 win over Georgia State?
This should be tight and it won’t be a breeze, but the Syracuse pass rush has been fantastic, and the offense should be able to move a bit against a Bronco D that can’t stop anyone on third downs. If the Orange running game was ever going to work, this would be the week.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Appalachian State at North Carolina
LINE: North Carolina -2.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS PICK: North Carolina
How snobby do you feel like being?
North Carolina hasn’t been able to explode offensively, but it’s been strong enough to get by in wins over South Carolina and Miami, and the defense has been solid so far, including in the loss to a high-powered Wake Forest.
Appalachian State has been fantastic … beating East Tennessee State and Charlotte.
Yeah, this isn’t your normal Sun Belt program – all it does is win, win, win – but the last time it was able to beat a Power Five team was …
Try never since it made the move up to the FBS world in 2014. However, it did lose by one to Wake Forest in 2017.
You can’t care about the 2.5 points – if North Carolina wins by less than that, you blow it off as miserably bad luck. Take the ACC over the Sun Belt team, even if it’s not your normal Sun Belt team.
NEXT: The rough schedule rolls on …
4. Auburn at Texas A&M
LINE: Texas A&M -2.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
Texas A&M really, really, really needs to win this.
It already played Clemson – and lost – and it still has to deal with Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. Win this, though, and with Arkansas up next, the showdown with the Crimson Tide becomes a massive deal.
The Aggies have been great offensively against everyone but the defending national champs, but the Auburn defense has been stellar so far. It held Oregon to 21, stopped a Tulane team that’s looking fantastic – holding it to six points – and kept Kent State to 16. But on the road, it has to somehow slow down the Aggies while getting more out Bo Nix and its own attack.
The Tigers have won three of the last four in the series, and they’re almost certainly not going to lose by fewer than three if they do lose, but go with the home team that really, really needs this, and go with the veteran quarterback in Kellen Mond over the freshman in his first massive SEC road test.
NEXT: Deee-fense (clap clap clap) … Deeee-fense (clap clap clap) …
3. SMU at TCU
LINE: TCU -9.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS PICK: TCU
SMU has been fantastic so far.
Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele has been what the offense has needed on the way to a 3-0 start. Dog the wins over Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State all you want, but the Mustangs blew out the Mean Green team that made Cal push too hard.
But now they have to deal with the TCU defense.
The Horned Frogs might not be anything special offensively so far, but the other side of the ball is fantastic. Rested, it had two weeks off to prepare for Purdue, and it stuffed the high-octane Boilermakers allowing just 13 points.
The secondary has been outstanding, the team overall is second in the nation in total D, and the run defense isn’t allowing a thing.
If you care about history, the former Southwest Conference brothers have played 96 times. Last year, TCU won 42-12 for its sixth win in a row in the series by more than double-digits. The Horned Frogs have won 11 of the last 12 going back to 2005. They’ll win again, and the D will do the work for you.
NEXT: And he comes the bounceback game …
2. Boston College at Rutgers
LINE: Boston College -8, o/u: 57.5
ATS PICK: Boston College
But there’s NO way Boston College will struggle against Kansas, right?
Okay, okay, so you’re a little shell-shocked after the Eagles got destroyed at home by the Jayhawks 48-24, and now they have to deal with the Kansas of the Big Ten.
Rutgers really should be better as the season goes on.
It has decent talent, and it has enough veterans to be more competitive, but the loss to Iowa was more than a little disturbing. The Scarlet Knights were shutout 30-0, generating just 125 yards of total offense with 47 through the air.
And that’s where Boston College comes in.
The Eagle defense is about to bounce back in a big way and look more like the team that was so strong against Virginia Tech to start the season.
In its last 17 games, Rutgers has lost 12 by nine points or more.
You’re basically asking for Rutgers to go Rutgers …
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NEXT: You’re asking for this team to keep doing what it’s doing …
Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. UCLA at Washington State
LINE: Washington State -19.5, o/u: 58.5
ATS PICK: Washington State
Eventually this UCLA thing is going to work.
Chip Kelly is too good a head coach, and the overall pieces to the program are all there to eventually get the offense working like it’s supposed to. However, instead of building off the big end to last season, the O has gotten worse scoring 14 points in each of the first three games.
The concern, though, is that the Bruin defense might be just good enough to keep this to under 20 and lose 33-14. There’s one problem with that …
Washington State’s offense is humming.
The Houston game was a bit too much of a fight – winning 31-24 – but Anthony Gordon and the passing attack have been sharp. He has thrown for 420 yards or more in each of the first three games, he’s averaging close to 11 yards per throw, and the O is getting the job done.
Meanwhile, the defense is doing a great job against everyone’s passing game, and UCLA can’t run a lick, averaging just over two yards per carry.
This isn’t the week the Bruin offense will go off.
