What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 3? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 3 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 3 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 3 Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
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Now the puzzle pieces are starting to come together after two weeks, and that leads to two themes in a light week without too many big games.
1) The favorites need to go favorites, except when it comes to the biggest of teams.
Not in this are Clemson (-27.5 against Syracuse), Ohio State (-16.5 against Indiana), Oklahoma (-21.5 against UCLA), and Georgia (-33.5 against Arkansas State) who should all win, but might struggle to cover. Those are a bit too dicey to be among the ten best predictions against the spread.
2) It’s time to go with the snobs over the slobs – Caddyshack tag line, before you get too mad about it – with several Power Five teams getting great odds against some Group of Fivers. However, to start with big league vs. big league …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 13-10
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Arizona State at Michigan State
LINE: Michigan State -14.5, o/u: 42.5
ATS PICK: Michigan State
Call this being an all-in believer that Michigan State might be the nation’s most under-ranked and under-appreciated team going. The D leads all of college football against the run – again – the O is getting the pop it needs out of QB Brian Lewerke, and Arizona State sputtered and coughed against Kent State and Sacramento State.
Sun Devil QB Jayden Daniels has been terrific so far, and he’s going to be the franchise for the next few seasons, but he’s a true freshman playing his third game against this D.
9. Iowa at Iowa State
LINE: Iowa -2.5, o/u: 44.5
ATS PICK: Iowa
There’s two ways to go with this. Maybe you don’t touch this thing with a 75-foot-pole, because it’s rivalry game involving an Iowa State team with the make-up to beat anyone in America on the right day, or need overtime to get by Northern Iowa in Week One. Or, you go with the team that’s better at college football and giving away just 2.5 points.
It’s never the wrong call to pick the better team, especially when the spread is less than a field goal.
Iowa State could absolutely win this. The Gameday atmosphere will be electric, the energy will be there from the start, and … Iowa is just better.
8. WKU at Louisville
LINE: Louisville -10.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: Louisville
Louisville might just be okay.
It’s a strange game played in Nashville, TN between two teams from Kentucky, but the venue shouldn’t matter if the Cardinals play like they did over the first two weeks. They gave Notre Dame problems, but mistakes did them in, and then they rolled through Western Kentucky by 42 in a nice tune-up game.
WKU’s offense has been fine, but it was the only team to lose to an FCS team in Week One – dropping the date to Central Arkansas 35-28 – and it should have an issue keeping up if Louisville gets off to a hot start. You’re not asking for a total wipeout, just an 11 point win by an ACC team over a suspect Conference USAer.
Keeping with the Power Five over Group of Five thing …
7. Oklahoma State at Tulsa
LINE: Oklahoma State -13.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
The Oklahoma State offense has been unstoppable so far. The passing game is crisp and explosive, the running game amazing, and everything so far has worked for the nation’s third-most efficient passing attack and eighth-best O overall.
Tulsa has no pass rush, it doesn’t take the ball away, and the offense hasn’t done too much so far. Coming up with seven points against Michigan State is fine – that D is a killer – but 34 against San Jose State? The Golden Hurricane could put up 34 this week and still lose by over two touchdowns.
Throw in the passing of Oklahoma State super-booster T. Boone Pickens, and the not-really-a-road-game aspect to this – the two schools are only an hour apart – and the Cowboys roll.
AGAIN with the snobbery of Power Five over Group of Five …
6. Duke at Middle Tennessee
LINE: Duke -6.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS PICK: Middle Tennessee
Duke has seen the two extremes so far, losing 42-3 against Alabama to kick things off, and having an easy time of it against North Carolina A&T last week.
This week should be somewhere in the middle.
Middle Tennessee is a good, sound team with a nice offense and the ability to keep up the pace for a bit, but it doesn’t have the run defense and it doesn’t control the clock at all. It’ll seem like Duke has the ball all game long with an efficient and workmanlike performance to win by more than a touchdown.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. San Diego State at New Mexico State
LINE: San Diego State -14.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: San Diego State
It was a mortal lock last week – New Mexico State +55.5 points. If someone wants to give that many points, you always, always, always say thank you, and you accept the gift.
This week, you’re all in on a San Diego State defense that’s been a killer from the start.
Granted, beating Weber State and UCLA isn’t any big deal, and there’s a huge concern that the San Diego State offense sputters and coughs too hard just to get to 15 points, but the defense is giving up just 208 yards and seven points per game so far. It’s stuffing everything against the run, and it’s dominating the time of possession battle.
New Mexico State might only have the ball for 25 minutes.
Playing the Aztecs is easier than dealing with Alabama and Washington State, but the Aggies are still going to have too many problems with turnovers, penalties, and simply moving the ball.
NEXT: When you root for bad …
4. Kansas at Boston College
LINE: Boston College -21.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: Boston College
Coastal Carolina 12, Kansas 7. That’s what you’re betting on this week.
How bad has Kansas been so far in the first two weeks of the not-his-fault Les Miles era?
Five turnovers, no downfield passing, no ball control, 312 yards per game of total offense, 115th in the nation in scoring offense, and empty drive after empty drive despite playing Indiana State and Coastal Carolina.
How good has Boston College been so far in the first two weeks of the season?
It blew out Richmond last week after getting by a restaurant-quality Virginia Tech squad to kick things off. The Eagles are now seventh in the nation in yards per completion averaging close to 19 per game. They’re fourth in the country in tackles for loss, and No. 1 in turnover margin.
It’s a bad, bad, bad matchup for Kansas if Boston College can stay this sharp.
NEXT: Eventually this will work, but until it does …
3. NC State at West Virginia
LINE: NC State -6.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS PICK: NC State
Last week in the Top 10 Point Total Predictions we went with the Until Proven Otherwise theme. As in, Until Proven Otherwise, assume Stanford and USC can’t score … and then they did. However, Until Proven Otherwise, assume UCLA and San Diego State couldn’t score, and they didn’t.
Until Proven Otherwise … assume the West Virginia offense is just plain bad.
There’s absolutely nothing happening down the field, averaging just nine yards per throw, and are getting totally and completely destroyed on the offensive line.
West Virginia has the second-worst rushing offense going right now, and NC State has been dominant defensively.
The Wolfpack are fourth in the nation against the run, have allowed just six points so far, and they’re living behind the line.
Until Proven Otherwise … take the great D over the bad O.
NEXT: Because there hasn’t been enough elitist Power Five over Group of Five so far in this piece …
2. Air Force at Colorado
LINE: Colorado -4.5, o/u: 58.5
ATS PICK: Air Force
We don’t know what Air Force is quite yet.
The Falcons played one game a few weeks ago against Colgate, and they dominated 48-7. They’ve had time off to prepare, and they should be able to run a bit on the Colorado defense that’s coming off the Nebraska win and has a trip to Arizona State to kick off the Pac-12 season next up.
But the line is just 4.5. That’s way too juicy not to take.
Air Force has a good team in place with a solid offense and improved defense, but it’s still a program coming off of two straight losing seasons going against a healthy and rolling Colorado squad.
The Buffs are playing well, with the passing game among the nation’ most efficient, the defense coming up with seven takeaways so far, and with the downfield passing game doing a great job now that Laviska Shenault is healthy again.
And the line is only 4.5.
NEXT: And the biggest of the Power Five vs. Group of Five disparities this week …
Week 3 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 3 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 3 Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
1. Maryland at Temple
LINE: Maryland -7.5, o/u: 66.5
ATS PICK: Maryland
Please … please tell me you got in on Maryland -4 when this first came out on Sunday afternoon.
Temple was fantastic against Bucknell in the 56-12 start to the season, it has had two weeks off to tune up, and it gets the game in Philadelphia.
And Maryland spent last week boat-racing a ranked Syracuse team for 650 yards in a 63-20 win.
If Temple wins this or covers, that’s the cost of doing business. Sometimes things don’t go the right way, but …
Maybe the Terps are a bit overblown after a hot start. Maybe the offense that leads the nation in scoring and is fourth in yards is about to fizzle a bit. Maybe Temple and its offense is good enough to keep up the pace.
Or, maybe Maryland is just that good.
Considering a talking point this week was, “I can’t believe I took Syraucse” – even though we told you to take Maryland – you don’t want to risk looking foolish again if Maryland is the real deal.
