What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 13? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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And the ten games that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …
10. Samford at Auburn
LINE: Auburn -48.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Samford
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For those of you new to the program, here’s the tried-and-true, blind-faith belief system that’s worked really, really well this year.
If the world wants to give a team 40 points or more, you take them, you say “thank you,” and you move on.
There are a whole slew of things that have to happen to win by more than 40 points – it’s actually hard to do.
Sometimes a team shows mercy – like Ohio State did against Rutgers last week – and sometimes a team isn’t good enough to win by a bazillion, like Northwestern not covering against UMass.
However, there are a few things to take into account when it comes to the FBS vs. FCS matchups late in the season. 1) Is it the final home game for the FBSer? If it is, the starters will likely stay in a bit longer. Alabama is coming to Auburn next week. 2) Does the team need a week off to rest everyone?
You ready to play the deep cut on this?
The last two times Auburn played a wipeout paycheck game at home before going to Alabama, it won it brutal blowouts – by 53 over Liberty last year, and 55-0 against Alabama A&M in 2016. However …
The last few times it was the game BEFORE Senior Day – like it is this year? 42-14 over ULM in 2017, 56-34 over Idaho in 2015, 35-16 over Samford in 2011, 62-24 over UT Chattanooga in 2010, and 37-20 over UT Martin in 2008.
The gods are handing you 48.5 points AND a wacky trend/streak?
In this case, Samford actually has a fun enough offense that it can luck its way into a touchdown or two against the backups.
And from the Department of Oh Screw It, We’ve Come This Far With The Theme …
9. Arkansas at LSU
LINE: LSU -43.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Arkansas
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Take everything that was just said about the FBS vs. FCS thing, and apply it to this.
The Arkansas Razorbacks will get up Saturday morning up 43.5-0.
LSU can win the SEC West with a victory, but it has bigger fish to fry next week against Texas A&M and the week after against Georgia in – most likely – the SEC Championship.
It’s not Senior Day – that’s next week – so this is just about coming up with an instant wipeout and then sitting everyone possible. Also, as dominant as LSU has been, it hasn’t won a game by more than 43 against an FBS team since the 55-3 win over Georgia Southern in the opener.
One more thing. After what happened last week to Tua Tagovailoa, but watch out for some teams to be a bit spooked about how long the superstar starting quarterback keeps playing in a blowout.
8. Pitt at Virginia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -3.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Stick with the hot hand. It’s the last home game of the year for a Virginia Tech team that’s in the thick of the ACC Coastal hunt. Pitt is, too, but the Hokies have rolled in their last two games, played Notre Dame well, and has won five of their last six games. Pitt is hot, too – winning six of its last seven – but the Hokies are sharper. You’re only giving away an extra half point taking the home team.
7. Nevada at Fresno State
LINE: Fresno State -14
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Nevada
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This isn’t the Fresno State of the last two years. The defense isn’t nearly as nasty, it lost three of its last four, and the only win so far by more than 14 is over UNLV. The Bulldogs just played San Diego State – and lost – while Nevada has had two weeks off since winning on the road in San Diego. The Wolf Pack were blown away by Utah State and Wyoming on the road by a total score of 67-13 in their previous two road games, but the Bulldogs just aren’t that potent.
6. Nebraska at Maryland
LINE: Nebraska -4.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Nebraska
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Nebraska has last four straight and five of its last six. It can’t seem to do much of anything right, and that includes only scoring 13 in a win over a miserable Northwestern team. However, the offense started to click last week against Wisconsin, Adrian Martinez played well, and the team wasn’t that bad in a 37-21 loss.
Maryland is rested after two weeks off, and it’s the home finale, but it hasn’t come closer than six of anyone but Rutgers since losing to Temple 20-17 back in mid-September. Basically, Nebraska is bad, but Maryland is a whole lot worse.
NEXT: The Top Five Picks of the Week Against the Spread
5. Penn State at Ohio State
LINE: Ohio State -18.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Ohio State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There are a whole lot of factors going in Ohio State’s favor here.
First and foremost, this might just be the best team in college football.
There hasn’t been so much as a blip so far. There’s no weakness, every phase is playing well, and considering the end of the season is near, the team is relatively rested after chilling out in the second halves of blowouts over Maryland and Rutgers.
Granted, the Buckeyes haven’t played anyone quite as good as Penn State, but no one has come closer than 24 of them so far, and …
Are we all that sure that Penn State is that great?
It’s talented, and it has the athletes on defense to be a problem, but it was a bit overhyped for its 17-12 win at Iowa in mid-October, and it had one great half in the 28-21 win over Michigan.
This really might be the second or third-best team in the Big Ten, but it’s also about to deal with a rested and rejuvenated Chase Young returning to the nation’s No. 1 defense.
Throw in what’s apparently the theme of this week – the final home game of the year for a team – and OSU is about to make yet another statement.
NEXT: Let’s do it again …
4. TCU at Oklahoma
LINE: Oklahoma -19
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: TCU
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Not to be superstitious or anything, but this was the slot last week when the pick was made of Baylor covering against Oklahoma.
Can Oklahoma really beat a halfway decent team in a blowout?
It’s been a while since the Sooners were destroying everyone in their path, but so far they’ve only beaten three teams that are sure to go bowling. They beat Texas by seven, survived Iowa State by one, and needed the epic comeback to get past Baylor on a late field goal.
TCU isn’t playing all that well, but it’s also not getting destroyed.
There was a clunker against Iowa State by 25 on the road back in early October, but that’s been about it for the real problems. The defense – despite giving up a ton of points – is actually among the Big 12’s best, and the offense has found something in Max Duggan.
OU will win in its final home game of the year, but the 19 is a bit much.
NEXT: Jockeying for bowl position
3. Illinois at Iowa
LINE: Iowa -16
ATS PICK: Illinois
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s a game just for the sheer enjoyment and fun of a college football game.
Both teams are going bowling, both are out of the Big Ten West title hunt, and both are looking to move up in the conference’s post-season pecking order.
Iowa is excellent at home – it just took out Minnesota – and it won three of it’s last four, but it doesn’t blow teams out.
At least, it doesn’t blow out the good teams. It shutout Northwestern, but even that was just a 20-0 win.
The Hawkeyes have only scored more than 26 points once all year on a Power Five team, and even then it was only a 30-0 win over Rutgers in early September.
Illinois might be a deeply flawed team, but it’s playing with house money now.
It’s going bowling, it’s on a four-game winning streak, and it has a real shot at getting to eight wins this regular season with a date against Northwestern next week.
The last time it lost, it was blown out by Michigan – and that was only by 17.
Iowa has the defense to shut the lights out on a wildly inconsistent Illini attack, but the team goes in spurts. It can do enough to lose a game by under two touchdowns.
NEXT: More Big Ten action …
2. Michigan State at Rutgers
LINE: Michigan State -20.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Michigan State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Ohhhhhhhh, no you don’t.
Don’t think you’re fooling anyone, Rutgers, just because you scored 21 points on Ohio State.
The Buckeyes could’ve put 76 on the board if they wanted to, but instead they only chose to score 56 in last week’s win out of pure mercy.
This is still a really, really, really bad Rutgers team that hung up 44 on Liberty, came up with a few late scores against Ohio State’s backups, and have done absolutely nothing else since starting out the year with a win over UMass.
Remember, this is the team that went through a six-game stretch scoring a total of 30 points, getting shut out in three of those games.
The line has gone down from Michigan State -23, but just how down is this group? It can still go bowling with a win this week before facing Maryland.
It’s a team that needs to have some fun. This is the game to do it.
It might have lost five straight. Its offense might be sputtering in a bad way. It might have collapsed against Illinois, and it didn’t show up against Michigan.
It’s Rutgers. It’s going to be okay.
NEXT: It’s going to be okay, Part 2
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. Minnesota at Northwestern
LINE: Minnesota -13.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Minnesota
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is all about picking against Northwestern, not for Minnesota.
In fact, there’s reason to not like the Gophers. Just one.
QB Tanner Morgan got popped late in the loss to Iowa, and he’s still going through the concussion protocol. That means the team that’s pushing for a Big Ten title might have to turn to untested options Jacob Clark and/or Cole Kramer to lead the way.
Even if Morgan can possibly go, which is hardly a sure-thing, the staff will want him out as soon as possible with the showdown against Wisconsin next week for the West title. At least, it’ll be for the division if the Badgers beat Purdue.
But it’s Northwestern.
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The Wildcat defense is good enough to keep this from getting out of hand, but there’s just no offense for the Gophers to worry about.
UMass has the worst defense in college football. Northwestern completed 7-of-13 passes last week for 76 yards with two picks in last week’s 45-6 win that was more of a struggle than the final score.
Before dealing with Iowa and Penn State, Minnesota had won four straight games 23 points or more. That might have been with Morgan under center, but the running game and D will take care of the rest.
It’s Northwestern. It’s going to be okay.
