What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 12? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 12 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– 10 Best Point Total Predictions
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Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Enough safe and sane. It’s time to go against conventional wisdom, blow past everything we know to be dear and true, and make picks based on hardened theories that have worked well before and will now be applied in real time.
What does that all mean?
Welcome to Reckless and Irresponsible Week. They’re the picks you probably shouldn’t make, and in your heart of hearts, can’t make. But at the end of the day, these are will likely be the right ways to go. You’ll see in a moment.
And the ten games that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …
10. Ohio State at Rutgers
LINE: Ohio State -53
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Rutgers
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
We’re going to kick this whole thing off with two hopelessly irresponsible picks – because conflicting predictions and conclusions are exactly what you’re looking for in a Ten Best Picks Against the Spread piece.
The official, more mature prediction in the Ohio State vs. Rutgers Game Preview is different. Of course Ohio State could win this by 54, or 84, or 104 if it wants to. But for anyone familiar with the tried-and-true method with the predictions over the years in this piece – and it worked when New Mexico State visited Alabama, and when UConn went to UCF, among other games – if someone wants to give 50 points or more, you take them, and you don’t ask questions.
Rutgers is going to get up on Saturday morning up 53-0 against Ohio State.
Too many things can go wrong for the Buckeyes not to get there. They have bigger fish to fry, so they might get up 48-0 at halftime, sit everyone, and stall the rest of the game. Rutgers could get a fluky touchdown. Ohio State could be unfocused for a quarter. There could be a lightning strike, a plague of locusts … it’s HARD to win a game by more than 53 points.
Ohio State could totally and completely wipe out the Scarlet Knights and win 55-3.
With all of that in mind, Irresponsible Pick No. 2 …
9. UMass at Northwestern
LINE: Northwestern -41.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: UMass
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s one massive difference between this game and the Ohio State-Rutgers game. Northwestern might not be nice, because this is the only time all year the O is going have a little fun.
Northwestern has scored a grand total of 63 points since hanging 30 on UNLV in mid-September, and now you’re asking it to win a game by 42?
UMass has allowed 56 points or more over the last four games to teams like Liberty and UConn, and lost to FIU 44-0. Again, take this with a HUGE grain of salt, because this is more about the Minutemen getting off the bus up 41-0 than what the real pick and prediction is for this week,
If this helps, UMass started out the season losing to Rutgers 48-21.
Part Three of this theme, but not quite as much …
8. Wake Forest at Clemson
LINE: Clemson -34.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Wake Forest
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Pick against Clemson right now at your own peril, and Wake Forest is coming off a 36-17 loss to Virginia Tech, but there’s just enough offense on the field to at least make this a wee bit closer than the big number.
It’s hardly a plus that top Demon Deacon WR Sage Surratt is done for the year, and Clemson is hanging up 55 on the board without breaking a sweat, but it can win this in a total wipeout and not get to the 35.
The Tigers might have won each of their last four games by well over 35 points each, but the Demon Deacons are just good enough to score a few late points. Clemson will win in an ugly blowout on Senior Day, but in the final Irresponsible Pick of the Week, the team with the nation’s 13th-best offense is already up 34.5-0.
Oh what the heck, let’s just stay Irresponsible and keep the theme going …
7. Central Michigan at Ball State
LINE: Ball State -2
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Ball State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
What’s the most reckless way to make a pick? Spite.
Never, ever, ever, ever, chase, and that’s sort of what this pick is.
Who else had Buffalo -5.5 against Kent State?
It took an all-timer of a collapse – Kent State was 0-for-its-last-60 when down 21 points or more – in the fourth quarter to ruin that.
Throw in Toledo’s inexplicable home clunker to Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan coming through on the road in overtime against Ohio, and MACtion owes us.
So the final MAC game of the week is on here, only because we’re due for some puck luck.
Ball State has lost two straight, but Central Michigan isn’t strong on the road – 1-4 with the lone win coming against a bad Bowling Green team. The Chippewas are great overall against the run, but they’re 0-3 when allowing more than 125 rushing yards. NC State and Indiana are the only two teams to hold the Cardinals to under 150.
6. Florida at Missouri
LINE: Florida -6.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Florida
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It worked just fine putting Florida here last week against Vanderbilt – covering the 26.5 with ease in a 56-0 rout – so let’s not mess with it.
Kelly Bryant is back at quarterback for Mizzou, but he’s less than 100%. There’s some fear that the cold of Columbia could be an issue for the Gainesville guys, but the defense should be just fine against a Tiger O that’s having massive problems scoring. It put up 21 points over the last three games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia.
This feels a bit like a trap, but Mizzou has yet to beat at team this year that will go bowling, and the one good team it played – Georgia – just pitched a shutout. If Florida really is the No. 11 team in college football, it wins this in a walk.
NEXT: The Top Five Picks of the Week Against the Spread
5. Alabama at Mississippi State
LINE: Alabama -17.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Alabama
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is here because 1) the line dropped from Bama -21 because there’s a chance Tua Tagovailoa isn’t playing, and 2) if he is, you’re getting Christmas in November with the 17.5, and 3) Alabama is going to beat Mississippi State by more than 17.5 points even if Mac Jones is at quarterback.
The Mississippi State defense just isn’t that good.
No matter who’s under center, the Bama running game is about to go off.
The Tide offensive line had an awful game against LSU, and it was still able to pave the way for a massive day from Najee Harris. Whether it’s to protect Tua’s ankle, or to help out Jones, the ground attack should blast away for more than 200 yards on a Bulldog defense that’s allowing close to five yards per carry.
The MSU secondary? It stomped on Arkansas two weeks ago, but before that it allowed close over 12 yards per throw in losses to Auburn, Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M.
Granted, most of the cowbell problems have been on the road, but Alabama is in a playoff push and Jerry Jeudy is way due for a massive performance after his drops against the Tigers. The O isn’t going to let up knowing that it needs to hang large numbers on the board the rest of the way out.
LSU beat MSU in Starkville by 23. Auburn won by 33, and Texas A&M won by 19.
It’s Alabama in a game it’s going to care about. You’ll be fine.
NEXT: Round One?
4. Oklahoma at Baylor
LINE: Oklahoma -10.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Baylor
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Oklahoma is a whole lot of fun.
Jalen Hurts is putting up historic numbers – even by recent Oklahoma passing standards – and the offense continues to be amazing as the program is pushing for a possible third straight trip to the College Football Playoff.
It’s also struggling.
There’s an outside shot that UCLA will get to six wins, but there’s a better chance that none of Oklahoma’s first five wins came against teams that will go bowling.
As it turns out, Texas is just a whole lot of whatever, and blowing away West Virginia is no big deal.
After losing to Kansas State, and coming within a broken up pass of collapsing and losing to Iowa State, OU has now played three of its last four games – all against the three sure-thing bowl teams on the slate – by fewer than 10.5 points.
Baylor has been shaky, too, needing to fight to get by that same West Virginia team that was rocked by OU, and struggled to get by mediocre teams like Rice, Texas Tech and TCU. This is looking and playing like a team on the verge of getting tagged, but it’s also finding ways to play up to the competition.
The Bears were good enough to blowout Kansas State and rock Oklahoma State on the road, and now they get the big game of the day in their house.
GameDay will be there, it’ll have the national spotlight, and it’ll be the moment to show the world that it can be Minnesota to Oklahoma’s Penn State.
The Sooners are better than BU, but getting 10.5 at home in a game like this is way too rich.
NEXT: Where do you go on vacation if you live in paradise?
3. Hawaii at UNLV
LINE: Hawaii -7
ATS PICK: Hawaii
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
What has UNLV showed the world this year to suggest it could slow down one of the nation’s most dangerous offenses?
The Rebel program has a habit of rising up and pulling off something weird once in a while – beating Vanderbilt 34-10 a few weeks ago – but that appears to be a wild aberration. Since then, the Rebels were rocked by a mediocre Fresno State team 56-27, were destroyed by Colorado State 37-17, and lost to San Diego State by three, but every San Diego State game is low-scoring and close.
Of the seven losses against FBS teams six of them were by ten points or more, partly because the pass defense is having issues.
In the four losses when the Rebels allowed 200 yards or more, they lost by a total score of 174-74 with none of the four closer than 20 points. Now they have to deal with the nation’s third-best passing game that’s averaging 349 yards per game.
There’s always a little bit of a concern when the Rainbow Warriors have to make a long road trip, and they lost three games in four before slipping by San Jose State in a 42-40 thriller, but it’ll be an aberration if UNLV is able to keep the high-powered attack in check, and the game close.
NEXT: Tech on Tech action …
2. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -6
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It seems like we’re all being baited into this one – it appears to be too obvious.
That’s the scary part, but Virginia Tech really is and should be a touchdown better than Georgia Tech.
The Yellow Jackets are improving under Geoff Collins. The passing game is coming off its best game of the season in a five-point loss to Virginia, the defense was able to keep Pitt to 20 points and led the way in a win over Miami, and the pressure is off.
With a losing season ensured, the program that’s rebuilding and moving towards 2020 is about to turn it loose as it tries to screw up the Hokies, NC State, and Georgia in a three-game homestand to close things out.
The Hokies, though, are hot.
With four wins in the last five – and the one loss coming to Notre Dame on the road in the final seconds – the season and team have turned around, setting up showdowns against Pitt and Virginia to close.
First, the defense needs to take care of the Yellow Jackets.
The Georgia Tech passing game that worked against the Cavaliers isn’t going to go off again, the Hokie run denies has been a rock over the last six games – allowing fewer than three yards per carry in three of the last four games – and the return of a healthy Hendon Hooker at quarterback is enough to pull this off by at least a touchdown.
NEXT: Pac-12 in the afternoon …
Week 12 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | Ind | MAC | MW | Sun Belt
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 12 Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
– 10 Best Point Total Predictions
1. Stanford at Washington State
LINE: Washington State -11
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Stanford
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The entire goal with all of the picks, predictions, and write-ups we do is to feed you all the quick-hitting information possible and let you make your own call from there.
Maybe we can confirm what you already believe, or maybe you’ll go the other way, but not as hard. With all of that in mind …
Yeah, Washington State’s offense could blow up at home and turn the lights out on Stanford in the first half – sort of like it did in a 41-10 destruction of Colorado in the team’s last home game.
Or, and this is the real call, Stanford could keep up.
If you’re looking to get in on sports betting action this weekend, be sure to sign up with BetMGM to take part in any of these games or other action on the schedule.
Lost in all the Wazzu pyrotechnics is a defense that’s not slowing anyone down. The Colorado win is the scary part of the equation – maybe this team is just that much better at home – but on the road in four of its last five games, the defense couldn’t stop anyone’s ground attack.
Take out Utah and Oregon – they’re outliers in the Pac-12 this season – but Cal averaged well over five yards per carry. Arizona State isn’t running on anyone, and it ran on the Cougar defensive front.
Stanford is ultra-flaky – it just lost 16-13 to that Colorado team that got its doors blown of in Pullman – but Cameron Scarlett is running well enough to be a workhorse. KJ Costello had a great game against the Buffs, but couldn’t lead the way to enough points.
The Cardinal have just enough on both sides of the ball to win this outright, and they’re getting 11 points.
It’s a shot worth taking that the flake factor will work on the positive side.
