What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 11? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 11 Ten Best Point Total Predictions
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Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 52-51
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. LSU at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -6
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Alabama
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
No, this isn’t one of the most secure, safe, and best picks of the week against the spread, but it’s LSU vs. Alabama. It has to be done, and it has to be done with full conviction … sort of.
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A lot of this depends on the line and where it ends up. The call is that Alabama will get enough out of the defense, running game, and receivers to rise up at home and win this by a touchdown. However, this becomes a whole lot nicer of a pick if the rumors that Tua Tagovailoa really is far, far less than 100% causes the line to go down to around 5 by game time. Bama has won the last four games in the series by double-digit points and the last six by more than six. Never mess with a streak.
9. Washington State at Cal
LINE: Washington State -7.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Washington State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Cal has decided to spend the rest of the 2019 college football season not scoring. The injury to QB Chase Garbers has made the Bears a hot mess offensively, scoring a grand total of 41 points over the last four games. Washington State has scored 41 or more four times this year. That’s not going to happen this week against the great Bear defense, but … Cal doesn’t score enough.
8. Penn State at Minnesota
LINE: Penn State -6.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Penn State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If the Gophers can pull this off, or even keep it close, tip your hat and go on about your day, because it’s going to require something special to do it. Even when Penn State’s had to scratch and claw for wins, it was still able to get by Iowa by 5 – and cover – and beat Michigan and Pitt by 7. This isn’t a team that’ll roll up 55 points, but the No. 2 run defense in the country should be able to take over.
7. Nevada at San Diego State
LINE: San Diego State -17.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Nevada
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
San Diego State could play against air and have a hard time winning by 17.5. The Aztec defense is amazing, and Nevada is prone to coming up with a massive dud here and there – getting rocked 31-3 Wyoming, 54-3 against Hawaii and 36-10 by Utah State – but that’s not how San Diego State rolls. It has one win all year by more than 14 points, and that was 31-10 at New Mexico State. Of course, the Aztecs could win this 21-3, but take the chance on the Wolf Pack being able to get at least one touchdown.
6. Vanderbilt at Florida
LINE: Florida -26.5
ATS PICK: Florida
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Vanderbilt doesn’t have starring quarterback Riley Neal, and it doesn’t have backup Mo Hasan to rely on. Deuce Wallace has completed 33-of-76 passes so far for 217 yards and three picks on the year, struggling way too much in the 24-7 loss to South Carolina last week. The Florida offense might not put 50 on the board, but just getting into the 30s should be enough, and then let the defense take care of the rest.
NEXT: The Top Five Picks of the Week Against the Spread
5. Wyoming at Boise State
LINE: Boise State -14.5
ATS PICK: Wyoming
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Your hope here is that Wyoming goes Wyoming and keeps this a close, tight game with just enough defense on both sides to get within two touchdowns.
Boise State should win it – it’s at home, where it’s 4-0 with blowout wins over Hawaii and Air Force – but its scuffling a little bit lately. It lost at BYU without Hank Bachmeier at quarterback, and had to push with him against San Jose State in a ten-point win.
Meanwhile the 6-2 Cowboys lost their two games so far – on the road against San Diego State and Tulsa – by a combined seven points. They style is slow and steady, the defense has been great, and the offense has just enough rushing pop to make up for the total inability to throw the forward pass.
Starting QB Sean Chambers is done for the year with a knee injury, by Tyler Vander Waal, who kicked off last year as the starter and should add a bit more to the passing attack. There might be a rotation under center, but no matter what, the 14.5 is a big number to give away to this team.
NEXT: If only the team knew how to go on marches …
4. UMass at Army
LINE: Army -34.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Army
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Normally we don’t like to pick favorites in this with a spread this massive – especially when a team is struggling like Army is – but this is different.
UMass changes up the equation.
The Minutemen defense is the worst in the nation, and while Army doesn’t have the passing attack to take advantage of the leaky secondary, the ground game should be able to rumble at will.
UMass has allowed 300 rushing yards or more four times, 200 yards or more four other side, and it’s getting hit for well over six yards per carry.
Liberty beat UMass by 42 last week. UConn – FREAKING UCONN – beat the Minutemen by 21. In all, the team has lost six of its games by more than 35, and got whacked by Southern Illinois by 25.
Army could use a nice blowout win after a rough run. It’s not going to take it easy.
NEXT: The Sam vs. Skylar show …
3. Kansas State at Texas
LINE: Texas -7.5
ATS PICK: Kansas State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s a problem if you have to search for reasons why the home favorite is going to win by more than a touchdown.
Texas is still Texas. It has the talent, it has QB Sam Ehlinger, and it has the offensive pop to open it up and make Kansas State struggle out of its comfort zone.
This is a Wildcat team that lost at home to Baylor by 19 when the parts weren’t working right, and it dropped a road trip to Oklahoma State when they somehow managed just 13 points against that miserable defense.
But the team has it figured out over the last three weeks.
The running game is clicking, the team is winning the time of possession battle, and the defense was able to rise up and shut down TCU and Kansas, and hang on for dear life against Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, Texas has lost two of its last three, dropped games to OU and TCU, and needed everything in the bag to get by Kansas.
Kansas State is playing well, and Texas isn’t. You’re getting 7.5 points to figure out if the trends are going to hold.
NEXT: The main man is back, so …
2. Stanford at Colorado
LINE: Stanford -3
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Stanford
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is all about K.J. Costello.
Stanford hasn’t been all that bad lately with wins in three of its last four games. The loss to UCLA wasn’t pretty, but beating Oregon State in Corvallis is better than it seems, and the win over Washington was terrific.
But last week, Costello was finally back under center and the offense looked totally different.
The Arizona defense might be abysmal, but getting back a senior NFL-caliber quarterback made a huge difference. He he over 70% of his passes for 322 yards and three scores in the 41-31 win, and now he and the Cardinal get to blast away on a flailing Colorado team.
The Buffs had their moment against USC a few weeks ago, and blew it. They lost by four, making it six losses in the last seven games – all of them by more than three points – with the one aberration an interesting road win at Arizona State.
This is still a banged up Stanford team, but if Costello is on, it won’t matter.
NEXT: Run, Rich Rodriguez, Run …
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 11 Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
1. New Mexico State at Ole Miss
LINE: Ole Miss -28.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Ole Miss
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
All the makings are there for this to be total and utter annihilation.
New Mexico State is dead last in the nation in turnover margin. It’s not going to come up with the big plays defensively to generate quick and easy scores,
The Aggies don’t control the clock, they’re miserable at moving the chains, and best of all here, they just don’t seem to like to score enough points.
They hit Central Michigan for 28 – and lost by 14. That was the only time they scores more than 17 points all year, and they’ve scored 13 or fewer in five of their seven games.
Best of all for your purposes here …
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New Mexico State can’t stop the run.
The Aggies have allowed over 750 yards on the ground over the last two games, have give up 230 or more in six of their last seven games, and now they’re about to get hit hard by an Ole Miss team that REALLY needs this game.
The Rebels have to win out to be bowl eligible, but considering they’ve lost three straight and five of their last six, and with LSU up next, they’re going to have as much fun as humanly possible.
The running game that went for 413 yards on Vanderbilt should be able to rumble at will, and don’t expect it to stop.
