What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 10? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 10 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 10 Expert Picks & Predictions
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Welcome to this week’s theme of Dog The Dog.
It’s a strange and sort of dull week of games, but few have blowout potential if the favorites’ heads are screwed on straight. It’s not just that some of these teams are underdogs – they make up the top five, with one key exception – it’s that they’re really, really bad teams, and you’re going to go against them.
Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 45-48
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Virginia Tech at Notre Dame
LINE: Notre Dame -17.5
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
First, Virginia Tech isn’t that bad. It’s not going to win, but it’s on a nice three-game winning streak. What you’re worried about is the Hokie brain cramp, sort of like the one against Duke in a 45-10 loss a few weeks ago. That’s not going to happen, but Notre Dame will come out fired up and rolling from the start. Think Irish-USC – watch out for the Hokies to tack on something late just to duck in under the spread. That half a point might come into play.
9. UNLV at Colorado State
LINE: Colorado State -7.5
ATS PICK: Colorado State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sometimes a game is the correct call no matter what. If it doesn’t work out, it’s just a bad moment of bad luck. This is one of those.
Colorado State is coming off to two straight road win blowouts – beating Fresno State certainly isn’t bad on the road – with a passing game that’s starting to explode. UNLV lost to those Fresno State Bulldogs 56-27 two weeks ago. There’s enough Rebel offense to keep this from getting out of hand, but usually when this team loses, it gets destroyed. five of the last six losses were by way more than eight points.
8. Fresno State at Hawaii
LINE: Hawaii -2.5
ATS PICK: Hawaii
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s another Dog The Dawg pick coming up, but first, Hawaii is only giving away 2.5 points against a Fresno State team with a suspect pass defense? The Bulldogs have just one road win so far – at New Mexico State – and they still haven’t beaten a team with a pulse. UNLV, Sacramento State, NMSU – yippee. If you can’t handle the Colorado State passing game at home, how are you going to deal with what Hawaii is about to bring?
7. BYU at Utah State
LINE: Utah State -3.5
ATS PICK: Utah State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Utah State hasn’t been good enough. There hasn’t been enough help around QB Jordan Love, the defense hasn’t been as good as it should be, and the season has been too much of a grind. But BYU is having a few problems on the road, and it doesn’t have QB Zach Wilson.
It got by Tennessee in what seems like eons ago, but it lost to a bad Toledo team by seven at the end of September and followed it up with a loss to a worse USF squad. At home so far, the Aggies have won all three games in double-digit blowouts. Giving away 3.5 isn’t too much.
6. Army at Air Force
LINE: Air Force -15.5
ATS PICK: Army
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It was at 16 for a while – it still might give you the extra half point near game time – but even at 15.5, that’s a lot. The Army offense is eventually going to work again. but it’s been a problem over the last few weeks. Even so, Navy was able to give Air Force problems in a win, and Army certainly knows how to defend the option offense that’s coming.
The Falcons will win, but 15.5 is a lot to give away in a game that should be relatively low-scoring. The Black Knights have yet to lose by more than nine.
NEXT: The Top Five: Dog The Dog Week Starts … NOW
5. Pitt at Georgia Tech
LINE: Pitt -7.5
ATS PICK: Pitt
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And welcome to the five Dog The Dogs, starting with one that you do have to be legitimately worried about.
Pitt doesn’t seem to like to score points.
It beat Delaware 17-14. It beat Duke by three, a miserable Syracuse by seven, and lost to Miami, scoring just 12 points at home last week.
So far this season, the Panthers have beaten a grand total of one team – Ohio 20-10 – by more than 7.5 points. And you’re going to go with them on the road against Georgia Tech, why?
The Yellow Jacket offense is about to be under siege from the tremendous Pitt pass rush.
It’s just this easy. Georgia Tech has no placekicking game – it’s dead last in the nation in red zone scoring – it has the ACC’s least-efficient passing attack, and the ground game can’t move against teams that can get behind the line.
Pitt leads the nation in sacks and averages eight tackles for loss per game.
And yeah, the Panther O really does score from time to time – but the team plays too many close games. Even so, the Yellow Jackets that have lost four of their seven games by more than eight points – and one of the others was against Citadel of the FCS world.
NEXT: Dog the Dog Week: wolf version
4. New Mexico at Nevada
LINE: Nevada -4.5
ATS PICK: Nevada
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Start with the idea that you’re picking against New Mexico, and go from there.
And you’re only giving away 4.5 points.
The Lobos have a few good parts, and they have just enough explosion to make things a wee bit interesting at times, but they have yet to come across a key play this season they weren’t able to whiff.
They also have the worst pass defense in college football.
There are two wins. One came in a fight against Sea Houston State, the other was a 55-52 victory at home over an awful New Mexico State team. Against everyone else, your 2019 New Mexico Lobos have lost by seven points or more in all six other games, and that 17-10 game that was close came against Liberty.
Be a little bit wary of Nevada – it’s awful, too.
It’s had a weird habit of suffering bad power outages lately with ten points against Utah State, three against Hawaii, and three against Wyoming in the last four games. But those three can play defense.
The Wolf Pack also put up 41 on San Jose State.
Again, in keeping with the theme, this isn’t really about Nevada. It’s about dogging the underdog, and this one has too many problems on the road.
NEXT: Dog the Dawg …
3. Florida vs. Georgia
LINE: Georgia -6.5
ATS PICK: Florida
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Okay, yeah. This isn’t really hammering on the underdog, so forgive the breaking out of character here. However, you’re dogging the Dawgs, but just a little bit.
Florida had two weeks off to rest up, it’s as healthy as it’s going to be on defense, and Georgia’s passing game just isn’t sharp enough or explosive enough to rip through the an NFL-caliber secondary.
Georgia is more talented overall, and the defense has the ability to rise up and rock, but this is a tough, physical Gator team that keeps on pressing. It couldn’t get that one late score needed to cover against LSU, but it only has that one loss, and it’s been resilient against everyone else.
This is more of a toss-up game than it might seem. When in doubt, go with the team that’s getting 6.5 points. Florida could win this thing outright, but this should come down to a late kick to keep it within a touchdown.
NEXT: Dog the dog: cat version
2. Northwestern at Indiana
LINE: Indiana -11.5
ATS PICK: Indiana
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And the ultimate key here is that you’re getting it at a discount. This would’ve been fine at Indiana -13.5 – which it was for a while – and now down a whole two points.
Indiana is actually okay.
It’s been doing a whole lot of bum-slaying – Eastern Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, UConn – but it got to six wins with last week’s win over Nebraska. After dropping the last game in the last two regular seasons with bowl eligibility on the line, the program is finally at six wins.
The pressure if off, everyone can play loose at home, and there’s still something to play for. A win would give IU its first winning season since 2007 and just its second as a program since 1994.
You want another carrot at the end of the stick? Win three more games – this, Purdue, and a bowl game would do it – and this becomes the first nine-win season since the Hoosiers went to the Rose Bowl in 1967.
Northwestern has been outscored 72-3 in its last two games, has only scored more than ten points twice – once was in the 24-15 loss at Wisconsin, and the other a 30-14 win over UNLV – and have lost by more than 11.5 in three of its last five games.
It took a late try-hard-in-garbage-time score to get past that against the Badgers.
The NU defense is just good enough to keep this from getting out of hand, and it has covered the 11.5 in all three of its road games, but …
Indiana, we’re all for you.
NEXT: The ultimate Dog The Dog is …
Week 10 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
AAC | ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | MW | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 10 Expert Picks & Predictions
1. Akron at Bowling Green
LINE: Bowling Green -6.5
ATS PICK: Bowling Green
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is the ultimate Dog The Dog pick of the week, and it’s a tough one to put in the No. 1 slot for one simple reason.
Bowling Green is bad at college football.
The offense is sputtering, the defense is among the worst in the country, and it’s frightening to get too into any team that has yet to score more than 20 points against any FBS team.
But you only need the Falcons to score more than 6.5 than an Akron team that can only dream of hitting the 20 mark.
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Bowling Green at least has shown off a few fun moments. It shocked Toledo 20-7 and rolled Morgan State 46-3. Okay, don’t count that last one, but there really is a passing game somewhere in this painfully struggling team.
Basically, you’re really hating on Akron.
It’s not like the Zips are getting destroyed by Alabama and Oregon. They’ve managed to score a grand total of three points over the last three weeks against Kent State – the naughty offender that allowed the field goal in the 26-3 win – Buffalo and Northern Illinois.
Not only can’t Akron score, but it has lost every game this season by more than a touchdown, including a 37-29 battle at UMass. You and ten friends can spot UMass 36 points and it would struggle to get to 37.
So here’s the deal. Either this doesn’t work, Akron covers the 6.5 – or wins outright – and this becomes proof that the entire world is against you as you deal with forces that go way beyond your control.
Or, you’re just assuming Akron will stay Akron.
