What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 1 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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Thanks to all of the Thursday and Friday games, along with a glut of FBS vs. FCS games, there aren’t a ton of obvious point spreads that appear to be off on Saturday. Whatever … there are enough to have some fun.
Most of these are based on what teams should do, and this is when a whole slew of offseason beliefs and theories are put to the test, starting with …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 1-2
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Virginia at Pitt
LINE: Virginia -2.5, o/u: 46.5
ATS PICK: Virginia
Enough talk about Virginia; it’s time to back it up. But there’s a lot not to like. Pitt might own the Cavaliers lately – winning four in a row and five of the last six – but this Virginia team is stronger than last year’s version. Virginia went 1-4 on the road last year and 1-7 in the last eight under Bronco Mendenhall, but again, this really might – and should be – the second-best team in the ACC.
The Cavs have a rock-solid defense, possibly the second-best quarterback in the conference in Bryce Perkins, and a strong enough makeup and coaching staff to get off to a hot start. Virginia is better than Pitt – start there, and don’t worry about the 2.5.
9. Indiana vs. Ball State
LINE: Indiana -17, o/u: 60
ATS PICK: Indiana
There’s a whole lot to like about this year’s Ball State team as long as the offensive backfield comes together early on.
There’s good experience, there’s promise for an improved defense, and …
It’s not all that much better than the team that was dumped by Indiana 38-10 last year, and the Hoosiers should be stronger and sharper. It’s the start of the Michael Pennix era for an IU team that has the receivers, skill talent and explosion to put up a big number the Cardinals can’t match. There might be some concern that Ball State puts up a special performance like it did in last year’s fight with Notre Dame, but that was an aberration.
8. Mississippi State vs. Louisiana
LINE: Mississippi State -19.5, o/u: 60
ATS PICK: Mississippi State
The world hammered on the Ragin’ Cajuns after the line started out on Mississippi State -22.5 … and you’ll benefit from it. This is a good Louisiana team with a great young head coach in Billy Napier, but in the Mercedes-Benz Dome in New Orleans, Mississippi State will soon show that it’s an SEC team, and Louisiana isn’t.
Are you really that worried that the Bulldogs lost so much top defensive talent? It’s not going to be the D of last season, but the improvements on O will make up for it.
This isn’t exactly how this should work, but Mississippi State win this game 56-10 last season. It’s not 26 points worse/Louisiana isn’t 26 points better.
7. Syracuse at Liberty
LINE: Syracuse -18.5, o/u: 68
ATS PICK: Syracuse
Liberty has been amazing against the spread as a double-digit dog over the last two years, but this is a theory pick. If Syracuse REALLY is the second-best team in the ACC – it’s the league’s only ranked team after Clemson – then there can’t be a problem against Liberty, even on the road.
This will be a dangerous Flame team under Hugh Freeze – once he’s 100% after offseason surgery – and it’ll put up plenty of points, but again, if you’re the No. 2 team in the ACC, you win a game like this by more than 20.
6. South Alabama at Nebraska
LINE: Nebraska -36, o/u: 66
ATS PICK: South Alabama
Can South Alabama be any better after struggling so much to put points on the board last year? The Jaguars scored 17 points or fewer in five of their last eight games, got destroyed against any team with a decent offense, and now has to deal with a fired up Nebraska offense looking to come out strong.
The Huskers will get up fast and have this easily put away, but that 36 number is a bit too massive. Nebraska can put up 50, but can the defense keep the USA offense from scoring two touchdowns? It’ll be a blowout, but the 36 will be tough to hang on too late.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Florida Atlantic at Ohio State
LINE: Ohio State -27.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: Ohio State
Ohio State might have some questions and concerns, Justin Fields has to prove he can be a consistent all-around playmaker, the defense has to show that it can start hitting again, and …
Look out.
Lane Kiffin is complaining that it’s no fun to be the lamb for this type of slaughter, but he has a good enough FAU team to at least be more than a light scrimmage for the Buckeyes.
There’s speed, there’s talent, and there’s enough to be a far better and far stronger Owl team than the one that underwhelmed in 2018.
And it won’t matter.
New Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be just fine, especially to start the season. Last year in place of Urban Meyer, Day’s team hung 77 on Oregon State, whacked around Rutgers 52-3, and destroyed Tulane 49-6.
And you’re worried about covering 27.5 against a Conference USA squad?
Don’t think too hard about this one. It’s statement time for the new era.
NEXT: It’s almost as if they’re trying to make this closer than it will be …
4. Alabama vs. Duke
LINE: Alabama -32.5, o/u: 57
ATS PICK: Alabama
Oh come on. you’re not really that worried that Duke is all of a sudden going to rip up the Alabama defense now that Dylan Moses is hurt, are you?
You’re not really that worried that star running backs Najee Harris and Brian Robinson are suspended for the first half after missing a team meeting, are you?
Basically, Nick Saban is mad. He’s mad at how last year’s season ended, and he’s mad that Alabama isn’t Clemson at the immediate moment, and he’s mad because he’s Nick Saban.
Expect the foot to be on the gas for the entire game.
The line hasn’t budged after the major injury and suspensions after getting to 33. It dropped a half a point, but whatever – it didn’t fall to the 30.5 it was at when it opened.
Bama has won every opener since 2006 by double-digits, hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in the first game since 2015, and allowed more than 17 just once since 2009.
This will get ugly in a hurry. Your 33.5 will be safe by late in the third quarter.
NEXT: One elitist Power Five over Group of Five pick, coming up …
3. Missouri at Wyoming
LINE: Missouri -17.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS PICK: Missouri
Can Wyoming score?
It’s a home game for Craig Bohl’s Cowboys, and they should be able to battle hard and come up with a few nice moments, but unless it’s playing a bottom-feeder Mountain West team, this O just hasn’t worked over the last few seasons.
And now it has to play an SEC team.
Call this an elitist pick, but America thinks this way, too. The line opened up at Mizzou -14, has gone up to 18, and is around 17.5 across the board. And why?
Wyoming scored fewer than 20 points seventies last season, and in its last five games against Power Five programs, lost 41-19 at home to Washington State last season, lost 40-13 at Missouri, lost the 2017 opener to Iowa 24-3, later got rocked at home by Oregon 49-13, and got destroyed by Nebraska in 2016 by 35.
Wyoming hasn’t beaten a Power Five program since shocking Tennessee in 2008, and hasn’t come within 17 of one since the 37-34 loss to Nebraska to open up the 2013 season.
The Tigers won’t open this up in a brutal blowout, but Kelly Bryant will be strong as Mizzou controls this throughout.
NEXT: If this isn’t one of the most fun games of the 2019 season …
2. Houston at Oklahoma (Sunday)
LINE: Oklahoma -23.5, o/u: 80
ATS PICK: Houston
Oh come on … you know you want to.
Oklahoma is going to win, but it’s about to get into a big-time track meet with a Houston team that has the left hook to potentially even pull this off outright.
There won’t be a lick of defense in this game, at least from the Cougar side, making the obnoxious point total of 80 more than reachable. Houston will take care of its share of points just just enough to get within 24.
This is a program used to beating Power Fivers. Under Tom Herman, the Cougars shut down Baker Mayfield and OU to kick off the 2016 season in a 33-23 game that wasn’t nearly that close. The following year, the Cougars started out the season with a win at Arizona and a three point loss to Texas Tech, and last year it walloped Arizona 45-18 early on.
Even in the shootout loss at Texas Tech – with the two teams combining for 112 points – Houston lost by 14, and that’s sort of what this will be.
New Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen has Big 12 talent on the offensive side in QB D’Eriq King, RB Patrick Carr, an a loaded receiving corps that’s as good as any the Sooners will see this season.
Oh sure, Oklahoma is going to hang up at least 55 points on the board – this might just be the 59-56 West Virginia game of last year – but Houston will come up with at least 40.
NEXT: Be better than the Belk … Be better than the Belk …
1. South Carolina vs. North Carolina
LINE: South Carolina -9.5, o/u: 63.5
ATS PICK: South Carolina
This is all about the offseason belief system that South Carolina is a really, really, really good team with a really, really, really nasty schedule.
This is also about the offseason belief that North Carolina will be better and stronger, but not there yet.
The last time we saw South Carolina play an ACC team in Charlotte, it was still sitting on the bus in a puzzling 28-0 waxing by Virginia in your 2018 Belk Bowl. The year before, though, it opened up the season against a NC State team that’s far better than this North Carolina squad and pulled off a terrific 35-28 win.
It’s four-year starting USC QB Jake Bentley vs. true freshman starting UNC QB Sam Howell. It’s a veteran team of good Gamecock players vs. a veteran team of okay-to-questionable Tar Heel talents under new head coach Mack Brown.
The Gamecocks have won 18 of their last 19 openers, an North Carolina has lost its last four lid-lifters, and …
Again, this is about sticking with a belief system forged over the last eight months that the Gamecocks might just have a top 15-overall team.
Apparently, though, America isn’t buying in quite yet.
The line started out as USC -7.5, rocketed up fast to around 12, has hovered around 11, and now has settled in at around 9.5 depending on where you’re going with it. And why the dough on the Tar Heels? The last six losses of last season were decided by ten points or fewer, and it’s a North Carolina game played in Charlotte.
Love it at 9.5, love it at 11, love is at around 14, which is where it should be.
