What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 6? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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10 Best Over/Under Point Total Picks So Far: 27-26
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10. Arizona at Colorado
LINE: Colorado -4.5, o/u: 62.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Call this a pick against all of the variables.
How healthy is Khalil Tate? How healthy is JJ Taylor? How healthy is Laviska Shenault? How well will the Colorado defense play with two weeks of rest and how strong will the banged up Wildcat offense be on the road?
Even when everything right, Colorado games aren’t insane shootouts, and Arizona has played in surprising defensive struggles lately.
It’s just enough to think under … by a little bit.
9. Arkansas State at Georgia State
LINE: Arkansas State -7.5, o/u: 70.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
71 points is a big number to get to but look for these two to find a way to make it happen.
It might seem relatively easy for an Arkansas State offense that scored 41 points or more in three of the last four games. The attack is rolling at will, it’s able to keep up in shootouts, and …
Only last week’s 50-43 win over Troy got past 71.
Georgia State games have been sort of crazy, too. The Panthers only put up ten in the loss to Western Michigan, but they should over in the 30s, Arkansas State should hit 40 against a defense that’s giving up close to 42 per game, and again … they should find a way.
8. Tulsa at SMU
LINE: SMU -12.5, o/u: 62.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
What about the consistent 44 points per game that SMU keeps putting up do you not like? Every Mustang game so far has blown past 62.5, and considering the offense should put up at least 40 yet again, the over shouldn’t be a problem. However …
No Tulsa game so far has gone over 62.5.
Even so, the Golden Hurricane should be able to score in the 20s, and again, expect SMU’s O to do its part.
7. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
LINE: Oklahoma State- 9.5, o/u: 62.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech … it has to be a shootout, right?
The Cowboys will do their part. They struggled to put up points against Kansas State, but they have a high-flying fun show the rest of the season with the ability to turn on the machine and put up 50 in a hiccup.
And then there’s Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders aren’t getting enough production with QB Alan Bowman hurt, scoring just 14 against Arizona and 16 against Oklahoma. Expect the Red Raiders to get into the 20s, but overall this should be played in the 50s.
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6. North Carolina at Georgia Tech
LINE: North Carolina -10.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Believe in the inability of the Georgia Tech offense.
North Carolina games have been relatively low-scoring – three of the five finished under 49 total – but again, you care about the Yellow Jackets here. They’re averaging ten points per game against FBS teams, and as long as the Tar Heels show up and try, they should be able to do their defensive job.
The Georgia Tech team that scored 14 on USF and lost to Temple 24-2 should be what you need.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Northwestern at Nebraska
LINE: Nebraska -7.5, o/u: 49.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Northwestern is like my kid’s Homecoming date … it’s not going to score.
No Northwestern game so far has come remotely close to hitting 50 points, with the 30-14 win over UNLV thing counting as a shootout.
Give the Wildcats credit, though, for being able to muck it up, slow games down, and control the tempo enough to keep the scores within range. But for your purposes on the under, all you care about is the nation’s least efficient passing game that doesn’t put points up on the board.
Nebraska’s offense was able to put up points in the first four games before the blowout loss to Ohio State with all of the first four game blowing past 50 with ease.
Expect Northwestern to go Northwestern, though and keep this low-scoring – it’s not going to be the 34-31 thriller of last year.
NEXT: Are both defenses really this bad?
4. Air Force at Navy
LINE: Air Force -3.5, o/u: 44.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Four of the last six games have gone under 45 points, and there’s a chance that these two offense play this game in 65 minutes – the two running games will keep the clock moving – but it won’t take a whole slew of big things to get the over.
Every Air Force game this year has obliterated the 45 point mark, with a 30-19 loss to Boise State the one coming closest to the pin.
How many of Navy’s three games have hit over on 45? All of them.
These are two similar teams with similar styles, and again, the two should grind down the time of possession battle and bring the game to a stop at times, but even as light a score as 24-21 gets this done.
NEXT: Come for the O, stay for the D …
3. San Diego State at Colorado State
LINE: San Diego State -7.5, o/u: 51.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s San Diego State. Start from there, and automatically assume the under is the best play.
In four Aztec games, how many of them have hit 52 points? None, and none of them have been even close. 41 points – that’s been the biggest point explosion so far in any one SDSU game.
Colorado State games have blown up a bit at times – three of the five blew past the 52 – but that’s partly because the opposition was able to co off. Colorado sacred 52, Arkansas put up 55, and Toledo scored 41. That’s not San Diego State.
The Aztecs will likely win this scoring in the low 30s.
Believe in the San Diego State defense. Believe that the Rams will struggle to get to 20 points.
NEXT: If you’re looking for offense …
2. Troy at Missouri
LINE: Missouri -24.5, o/u: 65.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
In a week that should see a whole lot of unders, this one should be a bit of a fun over if the two offenses do what they’re supposed to.
The big concern is a Mizzou defense that’s been fantastic over the last few weeks, allowing 21 points over three games and shutting down South Carolina and West Virginia in blowout wins.
The offense has had two weeks off, though, and it should be sharp coming of the win over the Gamecocks, and it should be able to handle most of the heavy lifting by itself.
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 6 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 6 10 Best Picks Against The Spread
Considering Troy gave up 47 points to Southern Miss and 50 to Arkansas State, demand nothing less than 50 from a Tiger attack that has the explosiveness to break out and do even more.
Troy hasn’t played a defense remotely as good as Mizzou’s, but it scored 42 points or more in three of the four games, and 35 in the other. All you’re asking for out of the Trojans are 17 points, and you’ll get there on the over.
NEXT: But the team doesn’t score …
1. Oregon State at UCLA
LINE: UCLA -5.5, o/u: 65.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Yeah, it’s Oregon State, but just how much do you really believe that UCLA’s offense can actually score.
Throw in the backup quarterback aspect to this – with Dorian Thompson-Robinson banged up – and getting to 65.5 seems somewhat crazy. If this turned even remotely close to the 67-63 Bruin win over Washington State, tip your cap and move on. However …
14, 14, 14 and 17. That’s what UCLA did points-wise in the four games other than that trip to Pullman. But this is Oregon State, right?
The Beaver D hasn’t been that awful.
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It got lit up by Oklahoma State, but UCLA’s offense isn’t light years away from being even close to that explosive. Since that lost to the Cowboys, the other three games – including against Hawaii – haven’t even come close to hitting the 65.5 mark.
Again, if these two teams go off and put on a fun show, great. Enjoy it.
But don’t go against the trends unless you absolutely have to.
