What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 5? Here you go. Enjoy.
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10 Best Over/Under Point Total Picks So Far: 21-22
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10. UCLA at Arizona
LINE: Arizona -6.5, o/u: 71.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Of course you know better than to go with the under on a late night Pac-12 game after the 67-63 UCLA win over Washington State last week …
But you’re not going with the over.
The other three UCLA games this season went way, way under, and the offense is more likely to score 14 than it is 40 against a rested Arizona team that hasn’t been all that bad.
The Texas Tech-Arizona game was supposed to be a blast, and it was a 28-14 Wildcat win – that’s more like what this should be. It should still be entertaining, but take the chance that UCLA didn’t turn the corner that fast.
9. Kentucky at South Carolina
LINE: South Carolina -3, o/u: 54.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
The Kentucky offense wasn’t explosive before, and now it’s struggling to do much of anything with QB Terry Wilson out for the year. The Cats managed just 34 points over the last two games with both going well under the 54.5-point mark. South Carolina’s offense has’t been rocking, either, failing to score more than 23 in any of the three games against FBS teams on the slate.
8. Georgia Tech at Temple
LINE: Temple -8.5, o/u: 49.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Georgia Tech just doesn’t score. It only put up 14 on Clemson, but it also only put up 14 on USF. In the loss against Citadel, the Yellow Jackets put up just 24 points as the two teams combined for a mere 51 points.
Temple allowed 38 to Buffalo last week, but the performance against Maryland – giving up just 17 points – is more like the Owl defense as it should be at home. The two teams should hang in the low 20s, with the loser likely to finish with around 17.
7. Ole Miss at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -37.5, o/u: 61.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sometimes, you just don’t mess with a streak.
In 2015, these two combine for 80 points. In 2016 they hit 91. Two years ago, Alabama hung 66 on the board, and last year is put up 62.
As is, the Crimson Tide are averaging 50 points per game, but the Ole Miss defense has yet to allow 30 or more. Even if its sort of half trying, the Crimson Tide should be able to come up with the 47 they generated against South Carolina, and then you just need 15 points from the Rebel side.
Nah … Alabama will take care of most of the heavy lifting all on its own.
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6. Clemson at North Carolina
LINE: Clemson -25.5, o/u: 60.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Clemson’s defense has been the issue for point totals this season.
The offense is able to go through the motions and do its part, but the problem with the 60.5 is the other side of the ball that’s allowing just ten points per game. It is a road game, and North Carolina will be fired up to make a statement, but if that happens, it’s likely going to be on the defensive side.
The Tiger’s put up 41 on the road at Syracuse, and that’s about where they’ll hit against the Tar Heels. North Carolina’s offense isn’t potent enough to push for more than 20 points.
This shouldn’t be a wild shootout. Expect either a low-scoring battle, or Clemson to get off the bus, come up with a methodically easy win, and leave.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Colorado State at Utah State
LINE: Utah State -23.5, o/u: 71.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
71.5 is a big, big number to try to hit, and these two should be able to do it.
Colorado State is a great team for the over. The defense is awful, the offense has the passing ability to bomb its way back into games, and it’s great at cranking up the scores.
All three games so far against FBS teams have obliterated the 71.5-point mark.
For all the good things that Utah State does, the defense is a wee bit suspect.
Blow off the 23-17 win over San Diego State – that was always going to be aa low-scoring battle – the 38-35 loss to Wake Forest its more like what this should be.
Utah State’s offense should have few problems getting to 40 on the porous Ram secondary, and go ahead and be greedy by asking for 50.
NEXT: Are both defenses really this bad?
4. Duke at Virginia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -2.5, o/u: 52.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
These two should put on a bit more of an offensive show on a Friday night than you might think.
Duke struggled against Alabama – shocking – and then the O went off. Blowing up North Carolina A&T isn’t any big deal, but the 41-18 win over Middle Tennessee got the passing game going.
Virginia Tech’s O should help be a part of the fun, too.
The Hokie defense has done its job over the last two games against mediocre completion, but the 35-28 loss to Boston College is more like this should be.
The two teams should hang around the 30s – or close to it. All you need is a 30-24ish game to get there. With these two passing games, that shouldn’t be a problem.
NEXT: Come for the O, stay for the D …
3. Texas Tech at Oklahoma
LINE: Oklahoma -27.5, o/u: 70.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s Baker Mayfield vs. Patrick Mahomes as two of the most devastating offenses of all-time should threaten to hit 71 points in the first half, and …
Nah.
Oklahoma is Oklahoma, and it’s rested. But the problem is that the defense might just be a wee bit too strong for your own good, at least if you like the over.
The Sooners aren’t going to roll for 70 like they did against South Dakota, and while getting to 48 points isn’t crazy, Texas Tech might struggle a wee bit to get too far past 20.
The Red Raiders will be without their best quarterback – Alan Bowman is out after getting banged up – and even with him it was a struggle to get the O going.
They managed just 38 points against UTEP, and against Arizona – in what was supposed to be a wild-and-crazy firefight – it was a 28-14 defensive battle.
It’ll be an interesting game, and Jalen Hurts will be Jalen Hurts, but look out for more of a 45ish to 25ish game, but on the low side. So …
NEXT: If you’re looking for offense …
2. Kansas State at Oklahoma State
LINE: Oklahoma State -4.5, o/u: 60.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Oh no … the Oklahoma State offense isn’t going to be held to just 30 points for a second weekend in a row.
Kansas State has a terrific defense and it’s able to control games with its tempo, but the Cowboys are very balanced, very explosive, and very, very good at keeping things moving. Every Oklahoma State game this year has obliterated the 60.5 point mark, and this one should oblige.
Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 5 10 Best Picks Against The Spread
So where’s the concern? Last year, Oklahoma State won 31-12. In 2017, though, the two teams combined for 85 points. In 2016? 80 points. In 2015? 70 points. The two teams rolled for well over 60 points in seven of the last eight years, and it should be eight of the last nine.
Expect Kansas State to do its part.
The Wildcat defense was great against the weak, and it held Mississippi State to 24 points, but the offense will be good for around 30 points on its own.
This will be fun, and …
NEXT: You want even more offense? Here you go …
1. New Mexico at Liberty
LINE: Liberty -7.5, o/u: 71.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Every once in a while you need a little college football eye candy and have some fun.
So you missed out on the over in the 55-52 New Mexico firefight win over New Mexico State? Here’s your shot.
So you didn’t get on board when Notre Dame whacked around the Lobos 66-14 a few weeks ago? Here you go.
Even the date with Sam Houston State was fun, even if the 39-31 UNM win didn’t hit the 71.5 point total of this week against Liberty.
The Flames had a few power outages, but New Mexico’s porous defense isn’t Louisiana’s – the Ragin’ Cajuns held Liberty to 14 points early on. Watch out for Steven Calvert to go off for at least 350 yards – he’ll likely throw for close to 400 – but will the New Mexico offense be able to do its part?
Liberty hasn’t allowed more than 35 points so far, and even Syracuse came up with just 24 points. However, for an offense that does have just enough pop to push for well over 30 points, the two should get to the over.
