What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 4? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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10 Best Over/Under Point Total Picks So Far: 17-16
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Central Michigan at Miami
LINE: Miami -29.5, o/u: 47.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
This week’s theme … go ahead and like the teams that can potentially take care of the point total all by itself, starting with Miami.
The Miami offense worked just fine against Florida and North Carolina, but those two have defenses. Bethune-Cookman doesn’t, and the Canes rolled 63-0. Central Michigan put up 45 last week against Akron but got blasted 61-0 by Wisconsin the week before.
The Hurricanes could get to 48 all by themselves, but Central Michigan might be able to score a little bit to help the cause. too.
And the theme continues with …
9. Old Dominion at Virginia
LINE: Virginia -28.5, o/u: 46
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
Again, which teams can potentially cover the point total all by themselves? In Virginia’s three games, it scored 30 against Pitt, 52 on William & Mary, and 31 against Florida State. There’s a shot it doesn’t show up in a sandwich game with FSU last week and Notre Dame up next, but getting to 46 isn’t crazy. Old Dominion has enough of an offense to add a few scores – it lost to Virginia Tech two weeks ago with the teams combining for 48 points.
Okay, let’s roll with some defenses for a while here …
8. Colorado at Arizona State
LINE: Arizona State -7.5, o/u: 48.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
What about Arizona State rolling three straight sevens do you not like? The Sun Devils allowing just a touchdown in each of its first two games against Kent State and Sacramento State was nice, but it held Michigan State to seven last week, too.
Meanwhile, the ASU offense is sputtering and coughing to get things going. All three Colorado games have blown past the 49-point mark, but in Tempe at night, assume the ASU defense will do ASU defensive things to keep this low.
Sticking with the defensive theme …
7. SMU at TCU
LINE: TCU -9.5, o/u: 55.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
The TCU offense hasn’t been great, but it’s done just enough to push close to the 55.5 if the SMU offense gets its passing game going. The Mustangs are averaging over 44 points per game, but they haven’t dealt with anyone like TCU yet. The Horned Frogs are strong enough defensively – the secondary is a rock – to keep the score really, really low. Don’t be stunned if this is kept in the 40s instead of into the 50s.
One more time with the defensive slugfests …
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6. Utah State at San Diego State
LINE: Utah State -4.5, o/u: 54.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Oh yes, you do like the San Diego State defense, and for this, you like the San Diego State offense, too.
The Aztecs aren’t giving up a thing so far, allowing just 24 points in the first three games. The Aztec offense isn’t scoring a thing so far, coming up with just 60 points in those three games.
The concern is that Utah State and its high-powered offense goes off, but even if that happens, it’s not going to score enough to matter in the point total considering the SDSU O just isn’t that good.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Washington at BYU
LINE: Washington -6.5 o/u: 50.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
You’re thinking Utah-BYU more than USC-BYU.
The Cougar offense was able to rise up late against Tennessee, and it came back against USC to win 30-27. Both games went over the 50.5 point mark, but Utah-BYU? It only got to 42 points.
You’re a little nervous after what Washington did to Hawaii, hanging up 52 points in the blowout win, and the 47 against Eastern Washington were a bit disturbing if you’re going for the under. But in this, expect the Huskies to be just good enough offensively against the decent BYU D to be around the 30s, and then expect the Dawgs to clamp down.
So far, Washington has yet to allow more than 20 points, and it’s not going to do it this week, either. Expect BYU going for field goals more than getting into the end zone, and expect this to be on the low side.
NEXT: Are both defenses really this bad?
4. New Mexico State at New Mexico
LINE: New Mexico -4, o/u: 68.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Are you really so sure New Mexico State can score?
New Mexico’s defense is a total disaster so far, giving up 31 points to Sam Houston State – the 39-31 game hit the 70-point total – but the offense is still a question mark.
New Mexico State’s defense is a total disaster so far, too, getting destroyed by Washington State, Alabama and even the anemic San Diego State offense. Meanwhile, the Aggie O couldn’t do anything in its three games.
To be fair, all three of those defenses have been great so far, but New Mexico State combining for 27 total points so far this year isn’t okay.
68.5 is a huge number.
There’s a shot these two teams are both equally awful and they come out and roll out a massive performance. There are just too many bad parts to assume this will be an equal shootout.
Remember, 58-10 doesn’t get you over.
But if you think THIS is going under …
NEXT: First one to score wins?
3. Michigan State at Northwestern
LINE: Michigan State -9.5, o/u: 37.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
There’s a tried and true theory when it comes to picking teams against the spread that if someone wants to give you 50 points, you take them. That’s why if, say, New Mexico State is a 55-point underdog against Alabama, you go with it because so many things have to happen to get there.
A random Aggie score, a Bama 52-0 win, a missed assignment by a third-teamer – it’s HARD to lose by more than 55 – and New Mexico State didn’t.
It’s HARD for two Power Five teams to not combine for 38 points.
As Nick Shepkowski put it in this week’s CFN Podcast, you could cut this in half and not be crazy to take the under.
The Michigan State defense could stall the hapless Northwestern O to ten points. The Wildcats could go stall ball and win this 14-10. These two could absolute come nowhere near the number.
Or, the final score could be 29-19 like it was last year. Or 39-31 like it was the year before. Or 54-40 like it was in 2016 …
Or 30-6 when they squared off in 2013.
But take the chance that this get to 38 without too much of a problem. Again, keeping with the theme for the week, Michigan State could get there by itself.
NEXT: Speaking of getting there all by itself …
2. Southern Miss at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -39, o/u: 61.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
If it seems like Alabama is a little salty this week, you’re right.
It has to play an early game in the heat. It doesn’t get the main stage at the TV festival. All the headlines are about the student section leaving early.
Watch out for it all to focus the Tide into even more of a machine.
Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 4 10 Best Picks Against The Spread
Bama has scored 42 (Duke), 62 (New Mexico State) and 47 (South Carolina), and there’s no reason to think it can’t get to at least 50 against a Southern Miss defense that’s better than it’s playing, but is getting rocked.
Troy put up 42 on the Golden Eagles last week, and Mississippi State hung 38 on the board. Southern Miss can score and should be good for at least 14 points. If Alabama doesn’t go for 62, it’ll handle the rest of the work itself.
And to finish off the theme …
NEXT: All you’re asking is for the team to keep trying, just a little bit …
1. Miami University at Ohio State
LINE: Ohio State -38, o/u: 58.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
To finish up the week’s theme of teams that should be able to handle most of the point total all by itself, welcome to Ohio State.
Granted, the Buckeyes keep taking their feet off the gas, and beating Cincinnati 42-0 wouldn’t help you here, but you know that they’re good for at least 40, and closer to 50.
Miami University has been able to keep scores low, though.
It lost to Cincinnati 35-13, and it dropped the date with Iowa 38-14. Neither one of those came anywhere near the 59-point mark that you need.
But the Redhawks can score 14 against the Buckeyes, even if it’s in garbage time. Ask Ohio State to do what it does, and you’re getting over 60 with no problem.
Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 4 10 Best Picks Against The Spread
