What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 11? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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10 Best Over/Under Point Total Picks So Far: 44-39
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Purdue at Northwestern
LINE: Northwestern -2, o/u: 40
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is purely out of love and respect for just how bad the Northwestern offense really is. Purdue is down to its third-string quarterback, the Wildcats don’t score and … you never go under on a 40 point total. This is the exception considering four of the last five NU games have done it. The one that didn’t was when Ohio State went all Ohio State in Evanston.
9. Georgia State at ULM
LINE: Georgia State -2.5, o/u: 76
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is purely on an unwavering belief system that you never, ever go with the over on anything over 70 unless it’s a game you’re going to watch and you just want to have some fun. You’re not going to watch Georgia State vs. ULM – it takes WAY too much to get to 77 points.
Remember, it can be a 41-34 battle, and you still don’t win.
ULM’s offense is fun, but it hasn’t scored more than 44 all year – and that was a fluke. Yes, last week’s loss to Arkansas State was 48-41, and Georgia State’s win over Troy was 52-33, but again, it takes SO much to get there.
8. Florida State at Boston College
LINE: Boston College -2.5 o/u: 63.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Florida State can’t stop the run, Boston College’s AJ Dillon is rumbling on everyone, and star Seminole DT Marvin Wilson is out. The last few Eagle games have been shootouts, and … watch out for this to be a bit more of a fight. The FSU offense might be the problem – it hasn’t scored more than 20 in three of its last four games. The team will play hard for interim head man Odell Haggins to load up against the one-dimensional Eagles. That point total climbed a bit too high.
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7. Baylor at TCU
LINE: Baylor -2.5, o/u: 48.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Baylor struggled through a 17-14 win over West Virginia, but chalk that up to a weeknight game. In general, its games have been come up with some decent numbers with the Texas Tech and Oklahoma State games going rocketing past 48.5 points. TCU has allowed 27 points or more in each of its last four games.
6. Clemson at NC State
LINE: Clemson -33.5, o/u: 54
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Uhhhhhh, America? Have you seen what Clemson is doing lately? The offense has decided that playtime is over and this is when everything is kicking into high gear for the College Football Playoff. You always like it when one team can potentially take care of the over all by itself.
Before you blow off the Clemson hung 59 on Wofford last week, it did that the week before against Boston College, too. The last four games – and five of the last six – have all gone over 54. By the way, NC State has allowed 89 points over the last two games.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. LSU at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -6, o/u: 63
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Yeah, these are two high-powered offenses, but those are also to NFL-caliber defenses on the field. In the biggest of big games, this should slow down just a wee bit, the two defenses and the two running games will play a part, and it might not be quite the wild-and-crazy shootout expected.
And then there’s the Tua Tagovailoa ankle factor. That thing supposedly not close to 100%, and if he’s not right, and/or if Mac Jones is in, this isn’t going to be a firefight.
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As good as Bama is, neither of its last two games got close to 63. LSU – Auburn got to 43, and while the Florida game got to 70 and the Texas battle was crazy, Alabama isn’t about to give up 40 points at home.
NEXT: It’s a risk, but …
4. Iowa at Wisconsin
LINE: Wisconsin -9, o/u: 38
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s a risk here.
The Wisconsin defense is still ranked among the best in the nation, and Iowa’s offense stinks. There’s no running game, and the downfield passing attack isn’t there.
The Iowa defense is phenomenal. It hasn’t allow more than 20 points all year, and it only gave up 17 to Purdue. Iowa-Michigan was 10-3, Iowa-Penn State was 17-12, and overall, just three games have gone over 38 points.
So why the over?
Wisconsin is back at home with two weeks of rest. As good as the Iowa defense is, there’s a chance the Badger offense comes out like it did against Michigan and Michigan State. If it’s hammering from the start, it might take care of the 38 all on its own. All eight Wisconsin games so far have gone over 38 points.
NEXT: Chasing the over …
3. Ohio State at Maryland
LINE: Ohio State -43.5, o/u: 66.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The fear here is that Ohio State’s defense pitches a Chase Young-less shutout.
This team is already laser-focused, and it seems to remember very, very well how it couldn’t stop the Terps last year and almost lost. Only one of the last seven Buckeye games has gone over the 65-point mark, but …
Maryland’s defense is SO bad.
The Terps couldn’t handle anything Penn State wanted to do in the 59-0 loss, and they were never in it last week in the 35-7 wipeout against Michigan. But as bad as Maryland has been – including the 52-10 loss to Minnesota – the point total number isn’t getting out of hand.
In a strange way, if you want the under, not having Chase Young is a good thing. This Buckeye defense will be looking to make a massive statement without its star. It hasn’t allowed more than ten points to anyone over the last seven games, and it’s not going to start this week.
Can you see 58-7? That doesn’t get you over.
NEXT: Big Ten Badness, Part 2
2. UMass at Army
LINE: Army -34.5, o/u: 60.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is 100% on you, you UMass defense.
The Minutemen have the nation’s worst D, giving up 69 points to Louisiana Tech, 56 to UConn, and 63 to Liberty over the last three weeks alone. That doesn’t even count the 62 allowed to Coastal Carolina or the 52 given away to Charlotte.
And now, one of the nation’s worst run defenses has to deal with Army.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions
– Week 11 Top 10 Picks Against the Spread
– Week 11 Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
– Week 11 Game Previews, Schedule, Predictions
Here’s the concern, though. The Army offense isn’t working.
It didn’t work against Rice to open up the season, and it didn’t’ really work against UTSA. However, it’s been able to score more than 30 points three times, and the 34-29 loss to San Jose State went over 60.5.
The Knights won’t have to do it alone. UMass might not be any good, but it can score a wee bit. It’s worth the shot that the Minutemen might get to 20 points, and Army will rush for over 400 yards as it hangs in the 40s.
The Army O is overdue.
NEXT: Suspend everything you think you know for this last pick …
1. Washington State at Cal
LINE: Washington State -7.5, o/u: 52
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
But it’s Washington State.
It’s the team that was only held to under 31 points once and has one of the nation’s most amazing passing games.
The O is consistently pushing 40 points per game, and the defense has allowed 37 or more in four of its last five games, and …
Welcome to the Cal defense.
The Bears might be a disaster right now on a four-game losing streak, but that defense is holding its own. Utah put up 35 last week, but that was the only time Cal allowed more than 24 points so far.
And it was a 35-0 loss.
The Bears haven’t score more than 17 in any of the last four games, and no game so far has come remotely close to 52 points outside of a 28-20 at Ole Miss – and that’s when Chase Garbers was at quarterback.
Cal is throwing freshman Spencer Brasch at the Cougars.
Oregon was held to 17, Washington was held to 19, and Wazzu can win this and only score around 24.
