What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into the first weekend of Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 1 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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10 Best Over/Under Point Total Picks So Far: 2-1
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Miami University at Iowa
LINE: Iowa -21.5, o/u: 47
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
The total line went down from 49 to a far more worrisome 47, at least if you’re going for the under. It should still all be fine as long as the Iowa defense does its job.
Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa usually doesn’t have a whole slew of problems in the openers, but the games are kept relatively low-scoring, at least lately. The Hawkeyes beat Northern Illinois 33-7 top start out last season and beat Wyoming 24-3 to kick off 2017, and …
Beat Miami University 45-21 to start out 2016. Expect both defenses to take control of this one, and for the Hawkeyes to stay in control after getting up early.
9. East Carolina at NC State
LINE: NC State -17.5, o/u: 52.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
The line hasn’t moved a whole lot since going down from NC State -20.5 to 17.5, but the point total dropped like a stone. It was great for the under at 58, and not so wonderful at 52.5, but you’re hoping for the Wolfpack defense to rise up and rock.
The State O might be explosive enough to score 58 like it did in last year’s blowout win over the Pirates, but the D only allowed three points. The call is that new ECU head coach Mike Houston to do just enough to make the game more competitive, but mostly, to keep the game from getting out of hand. If NC State is held to under 40, it’ll be okay.
8. Virginia Tech at Boston College
LINE: Boston College -4.5, o/u: 58.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Boston College has more of an offense than you might think, but it won’t have enough of one to make this any sort of a shootout. Six of the last seven Eagle games last year were finished under the 58.5 – including last year’s 31-21 win over Virginia Tech – and expect more of the same.
The Hokies will be a whole lot better and stronger, but don’t expect these two to score in the 30s – this will be a tight battle with each team scoring in the mid-20s.
7. Houston at Oklahoma
LINE: Oklahoma -23.5, o/u: 80
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
It’s a Sunday night game – and the only game going – and you really, really don’t want to be on the wrong side of this if it happens to be the wild and insane shootout it’s supposed to be. The Oklahoma defense will be better, but it won’t be a brick wall. Combine that with the Houston defense that won’t get off the bus, and it’ll be a blast.
It might not be the 59-56 shootout like it was when Dana Holgorsen’s West Virginia team pushed the Sooners last year, both teams should be in the 40s.
6. Toledo at Kentucky
LINE: Kentucky -11.5, o/u: 61.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Who thinks Kentucky is going to start putting up big points? Apparently, the public does, with the total going down a tick, but not enough. The Toledo defense is sketchy, but can the offense do much against another strong UK D? The Wildcats failed to score more than 30 points in nine of the last 12 games last season, and 12 of the 13 games were played under 61.5 points.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. Boise State at Florida State
LINE: Florida State -6.5, o/u: 54.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
The game isn’t going to be played in hurricane conditions after being moved to Tallahassee, but there’s still a threat of a thunderstorm with a 50% chance of rain.
The last thing the Florida State offense needs is for sloppy weather.
The Noles are going to be better and stronger, but they’re not going to be Clemson when it comes to explosive plays and high-octane offense. On the other side, Boise State is starting a true freshman quarterback in Hank Bachmeier – the O isn’t going to blow up on the road against the FSU D.
As good as Boise State was last season, it scored 24 points or fewer in five of the last 11 games, including in a 44-21 loss at Oklahoma State. Florida State scored 28 or fewer nine times in 12 games, and now it has to deal with a nasty Bronco defense – and, potentially the weather.
It should be an entertaining and close game, but it’ll almost certainly be played in the 40s instead of the 50s – don’t expect either team to get to 30.
NEXT: A sneaky-good offensive show …
4. SMU at Arkansas State
LINE: Arkansas State -2.5, o/u: 56
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
When did these two supposedly stop playing offense?
SMU upgraded its quarterback situation with Shane Buechele coming in from Texas, and he has a loaded receiving corps to work with.
Arkansas State might have lost QB Justice Hansen, but it has more than enough talent and experience to keep its own high-powered attack going.
The Red Wolves might have been inconsistent last season, but the line dipping down to 56 after starting out at 58.5, all you’re looking for is close to 30 points out of a team that scored 31 or more in each of the last six regular season games. SMU’s offense only scored 30 or more four times last season, but that’s about to change.
Expect the two offenses to be a whole lot of fun, and expect a charged up atmosphere in a back-and-forth shootout.
NEXT: You’ll show up expecting an offense, but …
3. New Mexico State at Washington State
LINE: Washington State -32, o/u: 64.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
Washington State has a defense.
Of course, the big concern is the Wazzu offense that’s going to have the firepower and pop to hang up 60 points on its own against a miserable New Mexico State defense, but even if it goes off, the other side likely won’t do its part.
Against the better teams on the slate last season, New Mexico State managed just ten points against Minnesota, 13 against Utah State, and ten against BYU. This year’s version doesn’t have the pop to do much more, and again, the Cougar defense should be a bear.
Washington State hasn’t scored more than 42 in an opener since a 64-21 whacking of Idaho State in 2011, but it won’t be quite that bad.
It’ll be a blowout, but expect the Cougars to get up and coast from there. Even 48-10 – or around there – gets you the under with ease.
NEXT: It’s the game you’re going to watch …
2. Oregon vs. Auburn
LINE: Auburn -3.5, o/u: 55.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
It’s the one game you’re going to watch this weekend other than your own, and you’re going to want to have something to do with it.
The line is a bit tricky. Oregon is better than Auburn, but Auburn is the SEC team with a relatively favorable crowd, and …
The point total should be a bit easier to figure out.
The 55.5 is a wee bit high considering the Auburn offense is starting a true freshman QB in Bo Nix, and the defense should be among the nation’s best.
Oregon has the offensive firepower, and it was able to put up big points on Cal and Washington’s defense last season, but in Week 1, this should be a bit more of a ragged slugfest than a high-powered shootout.
It would be nice to get a few more points – the total started at 58 and was around 57 for a while – but this will be more likely be around 27ish-24ish than played in the 30s for both sides.
NEXT: Shootouts are just a whole lot more fun
1. Ole Miss at Memphis
LINE: Memphis -4.5, o/u: 64.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
The big move has been on the line, with Memphis a solid -6.5 for a while, and then came the money on Ole Miss that moved it down to 4.5.
The total has come down, too, for no particular reason. It started out a 68.5, and even though the weather appears to be just fine for Saturday afternoon – but HOT – it’s down to 64.5.
Like you need the extra help on a total that’s at least 15 points light.
The Memphis defense will be a wee bit better, but not by a whole lot. The Ole Miss offense loses a slew of key parts to the NFL, but it’ll still be dangerous. The Memphis offense has the firepower to put up a big number. The Ole Miss defense doesn’t have the ability to stop it.
How many Memphis games last year went over the 64.5 point total? Eight of the 14, and a few others were right there.
How many Ole Miss games last years went over the 64.5 point total? Seven of the 12.
Expect a fun shootout, and expect this to be played closer to the high-70s/early 80s.
Week 1 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | Ind | MAC | MW | Sun Belt
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 1 Expert Picks & Predictions: Saturday
