What ten college football teams should be better than the current win total projections? Here are the – potentially – ten best value bets.
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Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM have released every college football team’s win total, line, and odds to win the conference.
There are several early win totals that appear to be a bit off – check out all of them here, compared to the CFN initial prediction for what the win total lines would be – but ten really seem to be really askew.
One quick note: win totals are for the regular season only, so no bowls or conference championships. Just in case you dabble …
10. West Virginia
Caesars Win Total: 5.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Neal Brown was able to keep his team fighting through a rough first season. The program had to undergo an overhaul after losing a slew of key parts – including head coach Dana Holgorsen – but it kept on battling and won two of its last three games to finish 5-7.
All you’re asking for is one more win.
The team is going to be better. The offensive parts should be in place to do far more after sputtering and coughing throughout 2019, and the schedule should help.
Eastern Kentucky, Maryland, and a home game against Kansas all enough to bring a base of three wins. The Big 12 overall isn’t appreciably better, but Brown’s Mountaineers will be.
– West Virginia Schedule Analysis
CFN in 60: College Football Key Team Win Totals
9. Colorado
Caesars Win Total: 3
Win Total Should Be Set At: 5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Apparently, Vegas really, really, really doesn’t seem to think much of the hiring of Karl Dorrell.
It’s going to take some work with the passing game after losing QB Steven Montez and top targets Laviska Shenault and Tony Brown, but the running game should be okay and eight of the top 11 tacklers are expected to return.
The Buffs won’t be world-beaters, but four of their first six games are against teams that didn’t go bowling last year. Be warned, though, getting by Colorado State and Fresno State early on will be vital to get to four wins.
There will be an upset or two along the way, especially with UCLA, Arizona State and Washington State all coming to Boulder.
– Colorado Schedule Analysis
8. Louisiana Tech
Caesars Win Total: 7.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 9
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s a whole lot to like about a team that won nine regular season games last season, and would’ve been at least ten if it wasn’t for a few key late season suspensions.
This year’s version should be almost as strong.
Replacing QB J’Mar Smith will be Job One, and a few of the top tacklers are done, but almost all of the top targets return, the pass rush should be great, and the schedule is more than manageable.
Seven games are against teams that didn’t go bowling, and other than road dates at Baylor and Vanderbilt – both are winnable – there isn’t a whole lot to worry about away from Ruston.
They can afford to lose to the Power Five teams, drop the game at Southern Miss, and have room to spare for another loss – like to Marshall – to get to eight wins.
– Louisiana Tech Schedule Analysis
7. Stanford
Caesars Win Total: 5.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For this, you’re banking on the idea that 2019 was a strange anomaly under David Shaw.
Stanford was a consistent wrecking ball for the previous ten seasons – winning eight games or more in each one – but last year started out strange and never got going. There were too many early injuries, the offensive line was decimated, and the team couldn’t get the O going with now-Mississippi State QB KJ Costello hurting.
There’s no way Shaw suffers two losing seasons in a row.
The team is loaded with veterans, the lines should be far stronger, and a schedule with William & Mary, Arizona, and UCLA in the first month should provide a nice base of wins.
You only need six wins to get this right. and with Washington State, Oregon State, Colorado and BYU at home, there’s a chance you’ll get it with plenty of room to spare.
– Stanford Schedule Analysis
6. Kansas State
Caesars Win Total: 6
Win Total Should Be Set At: 8.5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The win total is just six for a team that pulled off eight win in Chris Klieman’s first season.
A few new running backs have to emerge, but QB Skylar Thompson is back along with most of his receivers, five of the top seven tacklers return, and …
Okay, the lines need an overhaul. That’s why you play Buffalo, North Dakota, and Vanderbilt in the first three games. Even better, the Wildcats go on a run of five games in six – and six in eight – against teams that didn’t go bowling.
Assume a good early run of wins, throw in the home dates against Kansas and Texas Tech, and get a road victory somewhere over West Virginia or TCU.
Six wins is a lock. Seven … no problem.
– Kansas State Schedule Analysis
NEXT: The Top Five College Football Win Totals Best Bets
5. Ohio
Caesars Win Total: 5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
2008. That was the last time Frank Solich won fewer than six games as the head coach of your Ohio Bobcats.
In his 21-year head coaching career going back to his days at Nebraska, he went 4-7 in his first season at Ohio, came up with a four-win campaign in ’08, and that’s it.
The guy is a career 19-2 at coming up with seasons with more than six or more wins, so this Bobcat team might be a dud, right?
QB Nathan Rourke is done, but the O is loaded at running back. The receiving corps is okay, and the line is fine for an attack that gets back eight starters. So the D is the problem …
Nine starters are expected to return.
It’s the schedule … it has to be the schedule.
North Carolina Central, Texas State, Akron, Bowling Green. Ohio can fall out of bed and win those four, and it’s not going to sputter in enough MAC games – it’ll be a player in the East race – to worry hitting five total wins even if the wheels totally come off.
Ohio should on the way to the 11th bowl appearance in Solich’s last 12 seasons.
He went 6-6 the one year in that mix when he didn’t go bowling.
NEXT: College Football Win Totals Best Bets: No. 4
4. North Carolina
Caesars Win Total: 8.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 6.5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
8.5 is a massive number to hit for a North Carolina team that should be good, but will need a whole lot of things to go right against a sneaky-nasty slate.
Sam Howell will be among the ACC’s best quarterbacks. He’s got a good receiving corps to throw to, the offense should once again be explosive, and head coach Mack Brown has quickly boosted up the talent level enough to think that going 7-6 in 2019 – 6-6 in the regular season – was just the start of something big.
There are a few issues, though. First, the schedule. Actually, we’ll get to that in a moment.
Second, four of the top seven players from last year’s okay-not-amazing defense are done, and third, there was a whole lot of bum-slaying going on with last year’s Tar Heels.
Five of the regular season six wins came against teams that finished with a losing record, and the sixth was against Mercer of the FCS. Three of the wins came by four points or fewer.
However, to be fair, all six losses were by a touchdown or less.
Back to the schedule, this really is going to be one of the better teams in the Coastal, but you need nine wins to hit the OVER.
At UCF to start the season – you feel all warm and comfy assuming a win in that?
Next up … Auburn in Atlanta. Yippee.
Soon after the slate gets rocky with Virginia, Duke and Miami all on the road, to go along with the battle with Virginia Tech.
Assume Pitt, at Boston College, and NC State won’t be total pushover games and hoping for four losses isn’t all that crazy.
NEXT: College Football Win Totals Best Bets: No. 3
3. Michigan State
Caesars Win Total: 4.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 6
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The total is set at 4.5?! Just how much of a mess do you really think Michigan State is going to be?
New head man Mel Tucker comes in from Colorado looking to energize a program that had gone stale over the last two seasons under Mark Dantonio.
The running backs are going to be good, but QB Brian Lewerke is done along with a few top receivers. Fortunately, all five starters are back on the offensive line.
It’s not like the defense is starting from scratch – five starters are expected back – and all you’re looking for to get the pick right is for this group to be just okay in a five-win season.
Tucker won five games with Colorado last year.
Northwestern, at BYU, Toledo, Miami. That’s September, and that should be a 3-1 run. Even if it’s 2-2, you just need three more wins.
There’s the safety blanked of Rutgers and at Maryland to close out the year. Minnesota is a home game, and Indiana is certainly beatable on the road.
Five wins. The Spartans will get there.
NEXT: College Football Win Totals Best Bets: No. 2
2. South Carolina
Caesars Win Total: 5.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s an indictment on the Will Muschamp era that we’re even talking about the South Carolina win total being at 5.5, but coming off a 4-8 season doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence.
The Gamecocks were able to stun Georgia, but they also had to play Alabama, Florida, and Clemson. That doesn’t excuse the losses to North Carolina or Appalachian State – even a 13-1 Appalachian State – but it was still a tough slate.
This year is even more about the games against the haves, and the have-to-wins. There are a slew of rough battles, but …
You want six wins? Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Wofford. Even if South Carolina stinks, hitting all four against that group can’t be a problem.
Missouri and Tennessee are home games, Kentucky is winnable on the road, and factor in at least one big victory over a Texas A&M at home or even a Florida on the road.
Okay, and that’s the issue. Texas A&M is going to be good, and Florida is going to be great.
LSU is on the slate – that’s in Baton Rouge. Oh, yeah, and Georgia hasn’t left the SEC East, and going on the road at Clemson is going to be super-fun.
The schedule is built for five losses, but you can afford one more and still get the over on the win total. You probably won’t need it.
This will be a good enough Gamecock team to get to seven.
NEXT: College Football Win Totals Best Bets: No. 2
1. NC State
Caesars Win Total: 4.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7.5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule.
Put it this way. If NC State can’t roll past 4.5 wins with this slate, there’s going to be a massive problem.
This year’s Wolfpack team, though, will certainly need to prove it after crashing and burning in a brutal 4-8 run that wasn’t supposed to be that bad thanks to an okay schedule.
It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but there was no offense, four of the losses came to teams that finished with losing records – Georgia Tech, really? – and all four wins were against teams that didn’t go to a bowl.
Chalk it up to a youth movement.
Now, in some configuration, it’s possible that 11 starters could be back on offense. They need to be a whole lot better, but the attack started seven underclassmen for most of last season.
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The defense isn’t quite as experienced as the other side, but seven starters should be back and ready to go.
And then there’s head coach Dave Doeren, who suffered just two losing seasons in his nine-year career. But to win on the over, you don’t need a winning season; you just need five victories.
Doeren has won seven games or more in all seven of his winning campaigns. And fortunately for him, when it comes to 2020 NC State …
Schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule.
You only need one more win than the Pack got last season to get past the 4.5.
At Troy, Delaware, Liberty. There’s three.
Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College – all three come to Raleigh, and two wins against those three are all you should need to get this done.
Need more breathing room? At Syracuse, at Louisville, Mississippi State, Florida State, at North Carolina. Win just one of those, and the 4.5 is obliterated.
