What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 11? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 11 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– 10 Best Picks Against The Spread
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 10 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Week 11 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Point Total: 42
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Of course it goes against every fiber of your being to go under on a 42 point total, but there’s a chance this is ridiculously high.
Georgia 14, Kentucky 3. Missouri 20, Missouri 10. Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 2. Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7. The Wildcat defense keeps every came low, and its games are always low-scoring, slow-tempo-fests.
Vanderbilt will be happy to help, scoring 17 or fewer in four of the five games, and just 21 in the other game. UK has the SEC’s No. 1 scoring D, Vandy is last in scoring O – the two teams combine to average 37 points per game.
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9. Indiana at Michigan State
Point Total: 52
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It hasn’t always been easy, and the defense have helped the cause with a slew of takeaways and other key plays, but Indiana is scoring.
It averages 37 points per game and has been rock-steady at that, scoring 36-37-38. Michigan State has the passing game to hang up enough points to at least keep the pressure on.
The Spartans had a bad day against Iowa, but before that it scored 27 in its previous two games. That’s more like the offense than the clunker in Iowa City.
Really? The point total is this is the same as …
8. Illinois at Rutgers
Point Total: 52
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is this the game Illinois starts to score?
The defense hasn’t been anything special, but Rutgers doesn’t have an offense. Don’t get caught up in the point total – even though that’s what you have to do here – the big yards and scoring drives aren’t going to happen.
Illinois has scored a total of 45 points in three games, and it’s not going to hang up the 40ish points Rutgers is allowing per game. This will hardly be scintillating, but don’t expect anything wild and crazy. Be stunned if both teams aren’t at 25 or fewer.
7. TCU at West Virginia
Point Total: 45
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You’re not going to take the under, and it’s okay.
It’s a Big 12 game, and both teams have enough scoring pop to make this interesting, but it’s more likely to be a defensive slugfest than a high-powered shootout.
West Virginia has the Big 12’s No. 1 defense in yards and is No. 2 in scoring D, allowing 17 points or fewer in three of the last four games and 27 points or fewer in every game but the 34-27 loss to Texas Tech.
TCU has been into a few big offensive games lately, and it put up 33 points or more in four of the six games, but expect it to be closer to the 20s against this Mountaineer D.
6. Middle Tennessee at Marshall
Point Total: 55.5
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
As always, when it comes to the over, we always love the potential of a team to take care of most of the point total all by itself.
Marshall isn’t going to score 56 points, and there’s reason for concern considering its defense is good enough to stop Middle Tennessee cold, but the 55.5 isn’t that much to ask for. The Herd should get close to 40 against a porous Blue Raider defense, and the D will give up a few points.
Middle Tennessee has scored 31 or more in four of the last five games – it’ll get to around 17.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Point Totals, Week 11
5. Hawaii at San Diego State
Point Total: 52
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even if the pick doesn’t work, you’re never wrong betting on the San Diego State defense.
UNLV is awful, and Utah State has been worse, the SDSU offense didn’t totally go off in those two, beating the Rebels 34-6 and the Aggies 38-7 – both were well under 52.
Hawaii got into a funky 39-33 shootout with New Mexico, but that’s partly because of a slew of mistakes. The Rainbow Warrior offense that sputtered in the 31-7 loss at Wyoming is likely what we’re about to get.
It’s not that Hawaii is bad – quite the contrary – but it’s had to do a ton of traveling over the first month, and now it gets to go against that fired up San Diego State defense coming off a loss.
You want more of an argument? San Diego State beat Central Michigan 48-11 in last year’s New Mexico Bowl. Take that out of the equation, and if you just count the regular season games since the beginning of 2019, the last 15 Aztec games have gone under 52.
NEXT: Southern Miss at WKU
4. Southern Miss at WKU
Point Total: 46
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If the point total in a WKU game is 46, you go under.
If the point total in a WKU is 1.5, you go under.
It’s broken record time when it comes to our analysis of the Hilltopper offense – this team just doesn’t score.
Last year’ WKU managed to come up with a 45 against Arkansas here, and a 30 against Charlotte there, but it only came up with more than 28 points three times in the 13 games.
This year, it started out with 21 against Louisville, 24 against Liberty, and 20 against Middle Tennessee. Since then, it hasn’t scored more than 14 in any of the last five games.
Against a whole slew of mediocre teams, Southern Miss hasn’t been able to put up big points – the 41 against North Texas came against one of the nation’s worst defenses – but the defense …
That’s the concern. The Golden Eagles haven’t allowed fewer than 30 in any of the six games against FBS teams, and …
It’s WKU.
Even if the Hilltoppers break character and roll up a big scoring day, their D might just help you out – it allowed ten points in two of the last three games.
NEXT: Northwestern at Purdue
3. Northwestern at Purdue
Point Total: 50.5
PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s Northwestern with a 50.5 point total. If this thing doesn’t go under, it’s not your fault.
The defense has been incredible, allowing just 36 points total in the three games – that tends to happen when you don’t allow a point in the second half of any game so far.
The Wildcats are happy to slow things down, control the pace, and are as comfortable as any team in America with a one score lead.
So far, none of the three games have come all that close to 50.5, including the 43-3 win over Maryland. Since the beginning of last year, 12 of the 15 games went under the 51.
Even the supposedly high-powered Purdue team with a great receiving corps and strong passing game hasn’t played a slew of shootouts. The Iowa game got to 44, and the Illinois game – not exactly a lockdown D in Champaign – went to 55.
This should be kept to the 20s, and again, if it doesn’t, that’s not on you.
NEXT: Temple at UCF
2. Temple at UCF
Point Total: 76.5
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever take the over if the total is set at 76.5 or more.
One team could struggle and score just 20ish points. There could be a few misfires, and the math is the math – at least one of the teams has to score 40 or more until to get there.
And that’s where UCF comes in.
The nation’s best offense has scored 44 or more in every game except for the 34-26 loss to Tulsa, and Temple doesn’t have the Golden Hurricane defense.
The Owls just gave up 47 points and haven’t allowed fewer than 31 all year – just assume UCF is walking into the building with at least 40 points.
Can Temple do its part? It scored 23 or more in every game but the 38-3 loss to Tulane, and UCF isn’t keeping the Owls to just a field goal.
It’s not going to be easy, but at home after two weeks off, get ready for the Knights to go off.
NEXT: Arkansas at Florida
1. Arkansas at Florida
Point Total: 60
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And the line came down.
It was around 63ish, but now it’s down to 60, and even lower in some areas.
Florida is a point total machine. The offense is consistent, the defense is just shaky enough to give up a slew of big plays, and every game it’s in turns in to a whole lot of fun.
The concern here is the shape the team is in. That was a brutal, physical game against Georgia with a whole lot of big shots to go along with the emotion of the battle. However, Florida was Florida, Kyle Trask threw his weekly dose of four touchdown passes, and the team put up 44 points against the SEC’s best defense.
Only one Florida game this season didn’t get to 60 points, and that was a 41-17 win over Missouri. The Gators will do their past to get to at least 40, and the Hogs should be able to do the rest.
This is the Feleipe Franks game. The former Gator quarterback has the Arkansas gig now, and he and the attack should be just good enough to put up at least 20 points – it has scored 24 or more in each of the last four games.
The Hog D is fine, but the secondary has had problems against most of the better passing teams, and the O will keep bombing to keep up.
