What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 9? This week … the extreme point totals
Week 9 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 9 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 8 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 9 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
Last week I needed to stop a slide before it became an avalanche, so I went with a few tried-and-true belief systems and ended up going 6-4.
I’ll take it. We can do better.
The whole point of this is to try to find discrepancies in the market. Where is the betting public going wrong, and how can we all exploit it? This week, there’s one potentially massive thing happening that we’re crazy not to to at least take a shot at.
The point totals.
If you’ve been along for the journey all year, and maybe even for several seasons, you’ve hopefully been able to get nice and fat on the unwavering belief that you ALWAYS go hard on the under on a college football point total of 80 or more, go strong with the under on 75 or higher, and dabble tastefully when it’s at 70.
Last week I hollered that the WKU-FIU point total of 77 was silly-high, and it came in at 53. I also said to stay away from the over on 76 in Ole Miss-LSU, and it came in at 58.
Of course this doesn’t always work, but people love, love, love going with the over, and in college football, you have to take advantage of that.
There’s a flip side – the way-too-low point totals.
Just like you need a ton of things to go the right way to get an over on 75+, you also need the world to go bonkers to get an under on 40.
The idea is to dare the extreme to actually come through and be just that extreme.
And with all that pretentiousness in mind, we kick this thing off with …
Results So Far ATS: 54-36-1
Click on each game for the preview
10. Florida State at Clemson
LINE 48 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
You know that giant pile of bull muffins I just spewed about going to the extremes? Yeah, do that, but sometimes you have to buy into the Maya Angelou paraphrased world of poetry, quips, and betting …
When a team shows you who it is, believe it.
If these 2021 Clemson Tigers come out and hang 58 on the board, then tip your cap, accept the moment, and cheerfully move on, because that offense so far really, really isn’t working.
Clemson hasn’t scored more than 19 points in and of its last three games. It only went over 20 once against an FBS team this season, and that was in a 27-21 loss to NC State. Even if this is the day it all kicks in, the Tiger defense is good enough to keep down the Florida State offensive side of things.
If Clemson can hold Pitt to 27 points, it can keep the Seminoles under wraps.
Okay, so you’re not buying in. Let’s try this the other way …
– CFN Week 9 Experts Picks: College
9. Duke at Wake Forest
LINE 71 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
As I mentioned before, 80, and you go under head first and don’t ask how deep the pool is. 71 … ehhhhhhhh, yeah, but dip your toe in first.
Again, a whole lot of things have to go right for two teams to combine to score 72 points, but this one is a bit different.
The total opened at 69.5. America saw this, remembered the 70-56 craziness of Wake Forest’s win over Army last week – full to-be-warned disclosure, I adored the under on 59.5 in that – and it instantly shot up to 71.
Duke was shutout last week against Virginia and scored seven three weeks ago against North Carolina – the Cavs and Tar Heels aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears defensively.
But I get it. Wake Forest has allowed 34 (Louisville), 37 (Syracuse), and 56 (Army) over its last three games, but going over on 71 is an outlier for Demon Deacon games even though it happened the last two weeks.
I promise, we’ll get to actual games and picks soon, but keeping with the theme …
– CFN Week 8 Experts Picks: NFL
8. Charlotte at WKU
LINE Point Total 73
ATS PICK Under
Last week the under on WKU vs FIU was here in the 8 spot, and it hit easily. No, I’m not superstitious, but if something works, you go with it until it doesn’t.
WKU has one of the nation’s most dynamic passing games as the program went big to fix the glitch of the last few years – if you were with this last season, unders on WKU games were gold because that team couldn’t score – but 73 is a tad high even against a suspect Charlotte pass defense.
The 49ers allowed 13 touchdown passes in the their last four games, got ripped up by the Middle Tennessee air attack, and got hit for 466 by FIU. Both of those games blew past 73.
There’s going to be a lot of sweating on this – these two offenses should be terrific – but 1) it’s supposed to be soggy and rainy in Bowling Green, Kentucky on Saturday, and 2) it’s a point total of 73. Give it a shot … but lightly.
Okay, okay, let’s throw an actual against the spread pick in here …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Kansas at Oklahoma State
7. Kansas at Oklahoma State
LINE Oklahoma State -30
ATS PICK Oklahoma State
There’s no real deep analysis here other than to be absolutely, positively, 100% certain that the betting gods aren’t trolling us.
Kansas was on an all-time heater when it came to not covering, going 0-6 this year and winless ATS going back deep into 2020. Oklahoma decided to take the first half off of last week’s game off, and everyone’s cash machine was unplugged.
It’s worth a shot to find out if that was just an aberration.
30 is a TON to be giving away to an Oklahoma State team that beat SW Missouri State 23-16 and Tulsa by five. It’s biggest win this year was by 11 over Kansas State, Kansas has only lost by more than 30 twice, and …
It’s not that crazy to think Oklahoma State could win this 38-7.
I know, I know, this one is soft, and buying into this next one might not be a whole lot better, but I have to do it. I have to get this out of the way to cleanse the palate before going with top five …
– Week 9 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
6. Texas Tech at Oklahoma
LINE 67 Point Total
ATS PICK Over
Spite picks never, ever, ever work, but after going hard on Oklahoma blowing away Kansas last week, I’m not giving up.
I’m demanding that the real Sooner offense that didn’t get on the bus to Lawrence shows up early against Texas Tech.
There are few things to love about this. First of all, there’s an outside shot OU takes care of business all by itself. Texas did it in the 70-35 win over Texas Tech.
OU went into last week’s game against Kansas having scored 52 against TCU and 55 against Texas. Texas Tech’s defense was fine in a 25-24 loss to Kansas State and did what everyone else does to KU in a 41-14 win.
Second, Sonny Cumbie. The interim Red Raider head coach is going to want to wing it around a bit more and the O might press just enough to put up 28 or so.
Getting to 68 isn’t asking for the world here. Three of the last four Oklahoma games did it before whatever that was last week.
Before the weirdest point totals of the week, another ATS pick …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 5: Colorado at Oregon
5. Colorado at Oregon
LINE Oregon -24
ATS PICK Oregon
You’re not wrong to ever assume Oregon will underwhelm, but this team is way too overdue to bust out with an explosive day where everything starts to click.
Oh, and Colorado really, really, really can’t score.
The only time the Buffs scored this year against an FBS team was the 34-0 win over a winless Arizona. Even then the offense only gained 365 yards and was helped by two takeaways from the D – the only time all year Colorado won the turnover battle.
They haven’t been able to get past 14 points in any of the other five games against the FBSers, and they’re dead last in the nation in total offense by a relative mile.
New Mexico is averaging just 254 yards per game. Southern Miss is averaging 258 and UConn 280. Those three are 2019 LSU offensively compared to Colorado, who’s averaging 238 yards per game whether it needs them or not.
To put this into perspective, if the season were to end right now, that would be the third-lowest yardage average by any team since 2014 – that’s out of over 700 teams.
Oregon has yet to beat anyone this season by more than 22, and it’s already working in our favor with the line starting at 26 and coming down. This might be at 23 by the time the game starts.
Speaking of great teams that should blow up …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 4: Cincinnati at Tulane
4. Cincinnati at Tulane
LINE Cincinnati -26
ATS PICK Cincinnati
Tulane’s Willie Fritz is a brilliant head coach.
He’s innovative, he’s able to pull rabbits out of hats, and he’s never afraid to try something quirky.
But he can’t get this season going, and to be fair, a disruption thanks to a massive hurricane had something to do with that.
Even so, it’s been a rough year for the defense that’s allowed 40 points or more in five of the six losses and 52 or more in three of the last five games.
Cincinnati struggled with the Navy knuckleball style, but before that it hung 56 on UCF and 52 on Temple. With the first College Football Playoff rankings coming out next week, there might be a little motivation to come up with something special and put up 50+ on the Green Wave.
UMass and Arkansas State are tied for the honor of having the nation’s worst scoring D, giving up 44 points per game. Tulane is just ahead of that allowing 42.3 per outing.
There’s one other important aspect to this – Tulane might not have a quarterback.
Starter Michael Pratt suffered a concussion against SMU and is questionable at very best, and top backup option Justin Ibieta has a shoulder problem.
That means Kai Horton, get in there you true freshman, you, in your first ever start.
And while we’re on the subject of good teams due to do something huge …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3: Washington State at Arizona State
3. Washington State at Arizona State
LINE Arizona State -16.5
ATS PICK Arizona State
Arizona State played against Utah like it desperately needed a bit of a break.
The defense didn’t have the intensity it showed in the second half against UCLA or throughout the win over Stanford, and the offense just couldn’t seem to get seem to find any groove.
Now it’s had two weeks off and it should be ready for a big finishing kick. Rip through the rest of the schedule, hope for a Utah loss somewhere, and it’ll be on to the Pac-12 Championship.
However, the Utah performance was a bit concerning, and the loss to BYU was odd, but those two games were on the road. This team is crushing it at home.
It beat Southern Utah and UNLV both by 27. It rolled past Colorado by 24 and Stanford by 18.
Washington State lost at home to USC by 31, but that was back in Week 3.
The team was able to hold together through the Nick Rolovich saga, and all things considered, it played okay last week in a 21-19 loss to BYU.
It was good enough to beat Oregon State, and it got by Stanford, but Arizona State – even with BYU beating the Sun Devils – should be the toughest team it’s had to deal with by far.
The Cougars have been through a lot, and now they’re getting to play a team that’ll look like it has 14 guys on the field.
Enough of that … back to Extreme Point Totals Week, and we continue by going totally against everything I’ve been preaching and saying for the last bazillion words or so.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2: Wyoming at San Jose State
2. Wyoming at San Jose State
LINE 41 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
I know, I KNOW, this is dumb.
I’m right – you should ALWAYS go against the extreme no matter what, and going under on a point total of 41 is absolutely ridiculous.
San Jose State scored 37 by itself against New Mexico State and hung 45 on Southern Utah. Wyoming put up 50 on Northern Illinois and 45 on Ball State.
San Jose State just played a weird game against UNLV that finished 27-20 – obviously over 41 for a total – and even an offensively-challenged game like Wyoming’s 24-22 over UConn rips past the number.
OF COURSE you should go with the over because it’s the right thing to do.
I can’t. I’m broken by these two teams.
I watched the Fresno State 17-0 win over Wyoming. I sat through the San Diego State 19-13 win over San Jose State. I sort of endured a chunk of the 14-3 New Mexico win over Wyoming and the 23-3 Western Michigan win over San Jose State.
As hard as it might be to go under on a point total of 41, San Jose State games have done it in four of the last seven, and Wyoming has flown eight miles below the number in each of it’s last three games, scoring a grand total of 17 points.
San Jose State has had nine days off since the UNLV game, and that’s about to help the defense in this.
San Jose State hasn’t scored more than 17 points in five of its last seven games, and Wyoming has a good enough defense to keep this in check even though its O won’t work.
I don’t feel good about any of that, so I’m jumping right back into my warm comfy blanket of always going the other way on an extreme point total, and we have a whopper …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1: Iowa at Wisconsin
1. Iowa at Wisconsin
LINE 36.5 Point Total
ATS PICK Over
May God help me if I’m wrong, because if I am, this game might be too ugly to let the sport of college football continue.
You can’t set a total on the number of Wisconsin turnovers vs Iowa high enough.
The Badgers give the ball away like they enjoy the way it makes the other team feel inside, and when the aren’t turning it over, it’s because they’re not throwing the ball.
There is no Wisconsin passing game. It doesn’t work, and the very smart coaches are going to do everything possible to keep the ball from going in the air against an Iowa defense that will be frothing at the mouth after not doing enough of that takeaway thing it does against Purdue two weeks ago.
You can’t set the total on the number of tackles for loss Iowa will give up high enough.
This Hawkeye offensive line gets a whole lot of balloon bouquets and edible arrangements sent its way, but this team can’t run a lick, it gives up plays in the backfield by the bucketload, and it’s about spend the better part of a Saturday afternoon watching the incredible Badger defensive front doing its Beachbody On Demand workout on QB Spencer Petras’s head.
But you take the over on 36.5 in a college football game. Always.
Wisconsin will turn the ball over a lot. Those mistakes will lead to Iowa points.
Iowa will give up a lot of plays in the backfield. The Badgers will get good enough field position to go on a few decent scoring drives.
We know how this is going to work. It’s going to be 3-0 at the half, and social media will mock and ridicule the total. And then the mistakes will fly, and the there will be just enough points scored to get out alive.
One of these teams might just get 37 on its own if this gets out of hand. Michigan and Notre Dame scored 41 and 38, respectively, on the Badgers.
Purdue scored 24 on Iowa, and the uggo of a Penn State game ended up with a combined 43 points.
The world just handed you a college football point total of 36.5. If this doesn’t work, sleep well knowing you did the right thing.
Week 9 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 9 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 8 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 9 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
