What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 6? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 6 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 6 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 25-18
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Thedach other …
10. Miami at Clemson
LINE: Clemson -14
ATS PICK: Clemson
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s not like Clemson has gone through the motions, but not every team can get up for every big game. It’s been so good that it’s been almost taken for granted that it had its issues in this strange year just like everyone else, and it just keeps rolling.
This is it for Miami. This is the moment when it has a shot to announce itself as a massive player on the 2020 college football stage, but Clemson isn’t UAB, Louisville or Florida State.
Including ACC Championships, Clemson has won 23 of its last 24 games by 14 points or more. As the theory of this piece has been ever since it started, never mess with a streak. If it stops, tip your hat and move on.
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
9. Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss
LINE: Florida Atlantic -2
ATS PICK: Florida Atlantic
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Throw this in the category of You Owe Us.
You Owe Us, Florida Atlantic, after winning but not covering last week against Charlotte. It happens this week against a Southern Miss team that hasn’t played a lick of defense all season long, but can crank up the production in a shootout.
FAU has more talent, is better coached, and should be able to simply win the game – QB Nick Tronti can run, and he’ll have a better passing day than he did against Charlotte. Don’t worry about the two – if Southern Miss loses but covers, that’s just a bad break.
8. Arkansas at Auburn
LINE: Auburn -13.5
ATS PICK: Auburn
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
How much do you believe in Arkansas?
It FINALLY has competent quarterback play with Feleipe Franks showing why he’s an SEC caliber quarterback, the lines are playing better than they ever did over the last few years, and the defense is more aggressive and a whole lot stronger.
However, the 37-10 loss to Georgia is more like the true Arkansas than the 21-14 win over Mississippi State -the whole Mike Leach thing is just that quirky.
Believe in the Auburn D. It’s not going to be easy, and you’re going to have to sweat a bit – the Tigers aren’t throwing 45 on the board – at home, they’ll bounce back from the Georgia loss with a methodical performance.
– Week 6 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
7. Tennessee at Georgia
LINE: Georgia -12
ATS PICK: Georgia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sort of like the Clemson and Auburn picks, this should be a week when the star-power teams rise up in the spotlight games. They’ve had a few weeks to get their legs as they’re starting to settle into a groove.
12 seems like a ton to give away for a Georgia offense that’s not coming up with a whole lot of magic, and you’re relying on Stetson Bennett to continue to be fantastic under center, but trust in the Dawg D.
Tennessee has the lines to keep this tight, but Georgia has the overall talent to pull away and cover late. It’s not going to be easy, but the same defense that stuffed Auburn last week will do it all again in a key early East Division rivalry game.
6. UTEP at Louisiana Tech
LINE: Louisiana Tech -14.5
ATS PICK: Louisiana Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Go with this at your own peril – this is nothing more than simply not believing in UTEP.
A little bit like taking Auburn over Arkansas because, at the end of the day, it’s still Arkansas, it’s not time to get fooled by a 3-1 UTEP start.
It needed to work way, way, way to hard to get by Stephen F. Austin and Abilene Christian, and its offense might be the only collection of 11 guys anywhere that couldn’t score more than three points against Texas.
No, it’s not time to be fooled by the 31-6 blasting of ULM.
The line is relatively in range because of Louisiana Tech’s 45-14 loss to BYU and 31-30 close call to a bad Southern Miss. It should be about 20ish, and you’re getting the Bulldogs cheap.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 6
5. Virginia Tech at North Carolina
LINE: North Carolina -5
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If both teams are fully healthy, Virginia Tech wins.
It’s not the fun story that North Carolina is – Mack Brown’s comeback, the rise of Sam Howell, the talent that’s in place – but Virginia Tech is a rock-solid team that came achingly close to playing for the ACC title last season and is even better this year.
And now it gets QB Hendon Hooker back.
The Hokies are coming in cheap after not blowing out a bad Duke team – winning 38-31 last week – and getting those five points is a big deal.
Including this year – let’s just assume Syracuse won’t get there – the last time North Carolina beat a team that finished with a winning record by five points was in last year’s Military Bowl, rolling Temple 55-13. In the regular season, though, the last time it did that was …
November 5th, 2016, taking down Georgia Tech 48-20.
Even the battles against the mediocre have mostly been close over the years – last year’s team could’ve very, very easily have 3-9 instead of 7-6 – but winning close games is part of the deal, of course.
This year, the Tar Heels had to fight to get past Boston College 26-22, and the 31-6 win over Syracuse was a whole lot tighter than that – the Orange couldn’t block and were way, way off with the passing game.
You’re battling history here if you’re taking the Tar Heels – as well as a nasty Hokie team.
NEXT: Texas Tech at Iowa State
4. Texas Tech at Iowa State
LINE: Iowa State -13
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The line is at 13 because Red Raider QB Alan Bowman is iffy – at best – with an ankle injury, but this offense can still run just fine with Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer who knows the Mike Wells system.
He stepped in for Bowman last week in the loss to Kansas State and threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns while adding a bit of a rushing element to the mix.
You’re getting a big number here because the public watched the 37-30 win over Oklahoma, but the line will go down by game time, and it’ll get to around ten if Bowman is playing.
Yeah, yeah, it’s easy to be freaked out by the 35-33 close call against Houston Baptist, and losing by ten at Kansas State wasn’t fun, but under Wells, Texas Tech lost to Texas last year by 25 and got rocked by Oklahoma – those were the only two times it got dropped by more than 13.
Iowa State hasn’t beaten anyone by two touchdowns in its last 13 games.
Speaking of inflated Big 12 lines because of quarterback concerns …
NEXT: Kansas State at TCU
3. Kansas State at TCU
LINE: TCU -8.5
ATS PICK: Kansas State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Skylar Thompson is a gamer’s gamer, but the Kansas State starting quarterback is extremely questionable – that should be a injury report designation – against TCU after suffering an arm injury in the 31-21 win over Texas Tech. Freshman Will Howard stepped in and was fine – he hit some big shots and a touchdown pass – but isn’t Thompson.
While all that was happening, TCU dropkicked Texas with a brilliant 33-31 win as QB Max Duggan showed off why his star is rising.
However, it’s not like the Horned Frogs stuffed the Longhorns. They played well and they pulled off the win, but Kansas State knows a little something about gutting out good victories over brand-name programs, beating Oklahoma earlier in the year.
Kansas State hasn’t quite hit its stride when it comes to controlling the clock, converting on third downs, and doing all the little things the program normally does, however …
It leads the nation in turnover margin, the special teams are fantastic, and – Howard is a part of this – it leads the Big 12 in yards per completion. It might lose this – and probably will – but it’s getting a whole lot of points just because of Thompson.
TCU was able to beat both Texas and Kansas last year by more than 8.5, but those were the only two times that happened in the last 21 Big 12 games.
NEXT: Florida at Texas A&M
2. Florida at Texas A&M
LINE: Florida -6.5
ATS PICK: Florida
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This isn’t how you’re supposed to do this, but …
Do you really trust Texas A&M to do anything great in a really, really big game?
Forgetting for a moment that the offense never got going in the 17-12 win over Vanderbilt, and the defense was knocked out in the 1st round against Alabama in last week’s 52-24 win, when was the last time this program really game through in a massive showdown?
Against the spread, it was able to play stall-ball long enough to cover agains Clemson last year, but …
Assuming Vanderbilt this year isn’t going to rise up and rock, the last time Texas A&M beat an SEC team that finished with a winning record was that wacky gajillion overtime 74-72 thing over LSU at the end of 2018.
The Aggies were able to hang around and lose by six at Georgia last year, and it didn’t get obliterated in an 28-20 loss at Auburn, but this program under Jimbo Fisher simply isn’t shocking the world.
The passing game will work against Florida. Ole Miss and South Carolina were able to throw on the Gator secondary without a problem, but the other side of the ball is the issue.
Florida QB Kyle Trask isn’t there with Joe Burrow’s early two-game 2019 pace yardage-wise, but in two games against SEC teams – Burrow got a tune-up against Georgia Southern – he has throw one more TD pass than the Heisman-winner had last year at this point.
A&M doesn’t have the pass rush to get to Trask, the secondary has allowed 293 yards per game in the first two, and you’re asking Kellen Mond and company to keep up with what’s turning into an offensive juggernaut.
Florida’s last nine SEC wins have all been by more than a touchdown. The two losses in that bunch? Last year to LSU and Georgia.
2020 Texas A&M isn’t 2019 LSU or Georgia.
And now, to close with a totally irresponsible and reckless call …
NEXT: Duke at Syracuse
1. Duke at Syracuse
LINE: Duke -1
ATS PICK: Syracuse
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Of course this has to be the No. 1 steer-through-the-skid call of the week as it matches up our two biggest love/hate ATS teams of the early season.
Syracuse owed us for not covering against North Carolina – it was one completed pass away from covering the 22 – and it came through in a big way the following week by covering the 22 with ease in the 21-10 loss to Pitt, and nailed the layup of a call as an underdog at home against Georgia Tech, winning 37-20.
The call from the start of the season was that Syracuse was bad, just not that bad.
Our other darling has been Duke, also in a love/hate sort of way.
Loved Duke getting rolled by Notre Dame, and it covered the 20.
Duke owed us. Loved Duke covering against Boston College, if not winning outright, and it got trucked by 20.
Duke owed us, and it finally paid off as it didn’t come close to covering the 5.5 in an 18-point loss to Virginia.
And then came last week.
Virginia Tech was, is, and should’ve been 10.5 points better than a Duke team with turnover problems, and then for the first time all year it won the turnover margin as it covered.
So understand and be warned that this pick is out of pure spite for Duke messing us up three times in the first four tries …
Syracuse as an underdog at home. It’s a moral imperative.
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 6 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 6 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
