What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 5 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 5 College Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 22-11
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
There’s a theme for this week …
How much do you really believe what you’ve seen?
Every team’s opener – with a few massive exceptions – has been rocky, and then there’s a bit of a movement towards the norm in the following weeks, if a team has been able to play multiple games.
Who’s getting sharper and who is who it is? Here we go, starting with the two biggest up-and-down teams so far playing each other …
10. Texas Tech at Kansas State
LINE: Kansas State -2.5
ATS PICK: Kansas State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Again, how much do you believe what you’ve seen?
Is Texas Tech the Texas Tech that struggled way to much against Houston Baptist, or is it the one that pushed Texas to the brink?
Is Kansas State the Kansas State that lost to Arkansas State, or is it the one that roared back to stun Oklahoma?
When in doubt, go with the streak. Kansas State has won four in a row against the Red Raiders, 8 of the last 9, and hasn’t lost at home in the series since 2008. Expect Kansas State to inflict its will on Texas Tech rather than the other way around.
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
9. WKU at Middle Tennessee
LINE: WKU -7
ATS PICK: Middle Tennessee
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
To beat this into the ground before it really gets going, how much do you believe?
Both of these teams were supposed to be good enough to be deep in the Conference USA championship race, and the winner of this still might be. However, WKU’s defense has been meh, the offense still doesn’t like to score all that much, and Middle Tennessee has been flat-weird over its first three games.
Middle Tennessee’s defense has been miserable, but with the offense starting to kick in, giving WKU seven points seems like a whole lot considering the home team might pull off the upset.
– Week 5 College Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
8. Oklahoma State at Kansas
LINE: Oklahoma State -22
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is Oklahoma State that mediocre or did it need a few weeks to get its legs? Kansas got whacked by 15 against Coastal Carolina and last week against Baylor by 33. Eventually, Oklahoma State is going to wake up.
The Cowboys have won ten in a row in the series, but didn’t win either of the last two by more than 22. It might be a sweat to get there, but until Kansas shows anything on either side of the ball, keep going against it.
– Week 5 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
7. Georgia Southern at ULM
LINE: Georgia Southern -20.5
ATS PICK: ULM
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Do you believe that ULM is really the worst team in all the FBS this year?
It’s not like things are going that well when you lose 31-6 at home to UTEP.
Georgia Southern should run wild and should be able to win without a problem, but that 20.5 is way too big a number for a team that hasn’t found its consistent groove yet after dealing with COVID issues.
ULM really is better than it showed so far, even if it really, really doesn’t look like it.
6. Missouri at Tennessee
LINE: Tennessee -12.5
ATS PICK: Missouri
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Who had Alabama rolling with ease against Missouri last week?
The Tide blew up fast, coasted from there, and Missouri kept trying in the fourth quarter to make the final a cosmetically-better 38-19 to cover the 27 without a problem.
And that’s probably going to be Mizzou this year under new head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. It’s going to be overmatched in most games and the talent won’t quite be there, but this team will work for a full four quarters.
Last year’s 24-20 Tennessee win was close, but this has been a series of blowouts. Even so, that 12.5 is too big a number considering the Tigers could – and probably will – put up a few late scores.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 5
5. Charlotte at Florida Atlantic
LINE: Florida Atlantic -6.5
ATS PICK: Florida Atlantic
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
How’s this for analysis?
Florida Atlantic should be a touchdown better than Charlotte, just because.
No one knows quite what this FAU team is going to be, so the line settled in at around around 6.5 and hasn’t moved – if feels like the world set the number on a guess.
There are a whole slew of changes on the Owls, from head coach Willie Taggart, to a new starting quarterback in former Indiana transfer Nick Tronti, to wholesale changes across the board.
We have yet to see FAU play, and Charlotte’s only appearance was a strong 35-20 loss to Appalachian State.
Talent-wise, Florida Atlantic shouldn’t have a problem with this. The team still has a whole lot of excellent players back from the Lane Kiffin era, and despite what Florida State fans might think, Taggart is a strong coach who has had plenty of time to prepare for the home opener.
Appalachian State ran for 308 yards and four scores against the 49ers. FAU isn’t going to get too crazy here – run, and run some more. Winning by a touchdown isn’t asking for a lot.
NEXT: Arkanas at Mississippi State
4. Arkansas at Mississippi State
LINE: Mississippi State -17
ATS PICK: Mississippi State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This one isn’t any harder than Mississippi State went ballistic on an LSU team that – while depleted of last year’s stars – is loaded with NFL-caliber, high-end talent, and Arkansas got lit up by Stetson Bennett.
No offense to Bennett – the Georgia quarterback who stepped in for an ineffective D’Wan Mathis and threw for 211 yards and two scores in the 37-10 Bulldog win – but he’s the fourth-best Bulldog quarterback in the 2020 overall pecking order. JT Daniels, Jamie Newman (opted out), and Mathis (who really is good) are more talented, and none of them are KJ Costello.
The Mississippi State new starting quarterback is coming off a 623-yard passing day, and don’t expect him to slow down, if at all.
Arkansas is plucky. It’s got a decent enough starting 22 to avoid being obliterated, Feleipe Franks is a restaurant quality SEC starting quarterback, but the 17 is way too light considering the program has been blasted by 20 or more in six of its last seven games.
Beware, though. Mississippi State is a Mike Leach team. It could very quickly pivot into ineffectiveness for long stretches, but don’t count on it.
NEXT: Oklahoma at Iowa State
3. Oklahoma at Iowa State
LINE: Oklahoma -7
ATS PICK: Oklahoma
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Lost in the Oklahoma loss to Kansas State was how good the Sooners were before the collapse.
But besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
OU was up 35-14 late in the third quarter as the offense rolled, the defense was fantastic against the run, and it took a whole lot of bad things to happen to blow it in the 38-35 loss.
The Sooners turned it over four times, didn’t force a takeaway, owned the time of possession battle – which is crazy against a Kansas State team that lives off of ball control – and outgained the Wildcats 517-400.
Iowa State is a very good, very sound team full of veterans led by an experienced QB in Brock Purdy, but it hasn’t shown the pop or explosion to keep up if OU makes this a track meet.
The investing public isn’t buying in, keeping the line on the low side at just seven, with it coming down from 7.5.
Until Oklahoma proves to be just that flaky – which it hasn’t been over the Lincoln Riley tenure – always be happy when you can get this team in the Big 12 giving away just a touchdown.
NEXT: Memphis at SMU
2. Memphis at SMU
LINE: PICK
ATS PICK: Memphis
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Welcome to 2020. You’re betting on how a team is reacting and coming off a problem with the coronavirus.
If everything was normal and if Memphis didn’t have to shut everything down for a few weeks, you wouldn’t be getting anything close to the value of -2 – which was where the line settled in at all week.
Now it’s an even bet.
Considering the Tigers would be at least a seven-point favorite, and more like ten if everything was somewhat normal, the value is too great to not give this a shot.
SMU has been terrific so far with the offense firing on all cylinders, averaging almost 50 points per game with a balanced attack that’s ripping through everything. However, Memphis isn’t Texas, North Texas or Stephen F. Austin.
This should be a back-and-forth shootout – the over is interesting, even at 74 – but Memphis is more talented, has the skill parts and lines to hold up, and it should be able to simply win straight up.
NEXT: Virginia Tech at Duke
1. Virginia Tech at Duke
LINE: Virginia Tech -12
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And finally, at the end of the theme-week, how much do you want to go against what you’ve seen with Duke so far?
The defense has a whole lot of talent on the starting 11, but it’s not holding up well with an offense that can’t stop giving the ball away.
Middle Tennessee are both a -6 in turnover margin so far, and Louisville is at -5. Everyone else is -4 or better.
Duke is -9.
The Blue Devils have given the ball away 14 times in three games, there’s no running game, and the defense has allowed 262 passing yards or more in every game so far.
The Blue Devils lost by 20 to a Boston College team that needed a walk-off field go to survive Texas State, and it got whacked by 18 against a Virginia team in its opener.
On the other side, Virginia Tech was a mess.
It had virus issues, was missing a bulk of players, and against NC State was down to its third-string quarterback for a stretch. And it won by 21 points helped by a defense that forced two takeaways.
Ever since beating Georgia Tech 41-23 in the middle of last year, Duke has gone 1-8, losing by 12 or more in six of those games.
But that 12 …
Until they show you something else, believe that these are your 2020 Duke Blue Devils.
Week 5 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 5 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 5 College Final Thoughts, Betting Advice
– Week 5 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
