What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 15?
Week 15 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 15 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 15 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 14 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 75-57
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 15 Game Previews, Predictions
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10. Oklahoma State at Baylor
LINE: Oklahoma State -5
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
At some point this slot machine is going to pay off.
Of course you never, ever, ever, ever, ever pick a game on spite, but after Oklahoma State failed to get the job done for us against Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU, no way we’re going to miss out once this actually does work.
The real reason is the running game – Baylor doesn’t have one.
Oklahoma State’s biggest issue – or one of them – over this four-game run of ATS yuck has been its inability to stop the run, most inexcusably against the Red Raiders. That’s not going to be a problem this week against a Baylor team that hasn’t pushed past 75 yards in seven of its last eight games.
Five of Baylor’s last seven games were losses by six or more, with the outliers this year a win over Kansas, a close loss to Texas Tech, and a home victory over a dead Kansas State.
It’s time, Oklahoma State.
9. Houston at Memphis
LINE: Houston -5
ATS PICK: Memphis
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Houston should be better than it is.
It’s missing some key parts, but there’s more than enough talent to have been better than 3-3 this year. To be fair, it’s been a disjointed campaign – the team couldn’t get the season going – but blowing out Tulane, Navy and USF just isn’t that big a deal.
Memphis is struggling. It couldn’t score against Navy in a 10-7 win, it’s coming off a two touchdown loss to Tulane, and …
That’s why you’re getting five points for a team that’s 4-0 at home.
Houston is 0-3 when allowing more than 360 yards of total offense, and despite the struggles of the last two games, the firepower is there for Memphis – who averages 467 yards per game – to find it again and start bombing away on a secondary that’s been hit hard by anyone who tested it.
8. Auburn at Mississippi State
LINE: Auburn -7
ATS PICK: Mississippi State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
In the I Gotta Guy category, I’ve got a guy who knows everything about Auburn – no, this isn’t anything nefarious – who absolutely swears that Mississippi State is winning this outright.
The Bulldogs might not be all that good, but very, very quietly, Will Rogers is turning into a nice quarterback for Mike Leach. There still isn’t any downfield passing game, and the rushing attack doesn’t get off the bus, but the team was competitive on the road in seven-point losses to Georgia and Ole Miss over the last two weeks.
Auburn has been just okay all season long, and now it’s coming off the Iron Bowl blowout to Alabama and getting steamrolled over by Texas A&M in the home finale.
This might be a dead team, and now it has to go against a Mississippi State defense that’s been decent enough against the average offenses to keep this from getting crazy.
It would be nice if it was more than seven, but, my guy …
7. Georgia at Missouri
LINE: Georgia -13.5
ATS PICK: Missouri
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Missouri’s defense is a little bit of alright.
Try to blowoff the 50-48 win over Arkansas last week that got out of hand. The Tigers couldn’t handle the Hog attack, got ripped up by Florida, and it’s been able to stuff everyone else over the second half of the season.
Okay, so you and a few socially distant friends could holt Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt to nothing offensively, but the Mizzou D is great on third downs, the team is good at controlling the clock, and it should do a decent job at home at keeping this from getting ugly.
Georgia is the better team and it’s going to win, but the 13.5 is a bit too generous here.
6. Fresno State at New Mexico
LINE: Fresno State -12
ATS PICK: Fresno State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
New Mexico is about to have a Jake Haener problem.
The Lobos were able to beat Wyoming last week, but that’s partly because there wasn’t any passing game to worry about stopping.
New Mexico has no pass rush whatsoever, it’s been rocked through the air by everyone else but the Cowboys, and Fresno State QB Jake Haener is coming off of back-to-back 400-yard games – hitting Nevada for 485 – for a team whose three wins were all by 13 or more.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 15
5. USC at UCLA
LINE: USC -3.5
ATS PICK: USC
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is the It HAS To Win Easily pick.
USC was brilliant last week against Washington State. It got out fast in the first quarter and coasted from there in a 38-13 win. It’s been a bit of a struggle at times for the Trojans – really, it took a fight to get by Arizona? – but the team seems to be heating up at just the right time.
Finally, Kedon Slovis is starting to look like he’s supposed to.
The defense had its best game of the shortened-season by far, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown finally broke out, and now, there’s a itsy, bitsy, teeny, tiny chance the Trojans can be in the College Football Playoff discussion with two massive performances.
If it rocks UCLA this week and wins the Pac-12 championship to follow – especially if the Pac-12 figures out how to make it a matchup against Colorado, if it beats Utah to go unbeaten – there might be a possible theoretical discussion about how to get in.
If Notre Dame beats Clemson and Alabama and Ohio State take care of business, someone in the room in Grapevine might love the idea of four unbeaten Power Five champions in the playoff.
None of that happens unless USC looks the part against the Bruins.
The problem is that UCLA has become good – or, at least, as strong as it has been under Chip Kelly.
The offense has been fun, there’s a pass rush, there’s an offensive line, and there’s a quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson who could give the Trojans fits for the second year in a row – he threw for 367 yards and three scores, and ran for 64 yards and a touchdown in last year’s loss.
However, there’s one big factor that’s going to get you this – turnover margin. USC is a +6 on the year, UCLA is -3. USC will get that one extra takeaway – even though the Bruins haven’t turned it over in either of their last two games – to pull this off.
In this case, and for your purposes, USC doesn’t HAVE to win easily. Just by 3.5 points.
NEXT: Virginia at Virginia Tech
4. Virginia at Virginia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -3
ATS PICK: Virginia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s easy to get us to love you. It’s hard to keep our affections.
Virginia Tech was the team over the first part of the season. The explosion was there, the talent appeared to be in place, and the experience was enough think this could be the third-best team in the ACC, maybe the fourth after losing at North Carolina.
But the team struggled to stay healthy throughout the season, there was a run of bad-luck close battles – highlighted by an unacceptable 38-35 gut-punch gack to Liberty – and the team hasn’t been able to get its mojo working again.
The Hokies have lost four straight and five of the last six, and they’re getting worse. Playing the Miami, the Pitt defensive front, and Clemson over the last three weeks might have taken its toll. The quarterbacks are beaten up, the running game has stalled, and things are getting ugly.
On the flip side, Virginias has won four straight as it turned its season around. It’s had a nice blend of spaced out games – trying to spin a positive on that – and it seemed to find itself in a shocking win over North Carolina.
The passing game is good – QB Brennan Armstrong has been fantastic over the past few games – the pass rush is great, and the scoring is there to make it two in a row after finally breaking the brutally long losing streak in the rivalry last year.
NEXT: Minnesota at Nebraska
3. Minnesota at Nebraska
LINE: Nebraska -10.5
ATS PICK: Minnesota
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is based on one belief – Nebraska can’t win big two weeks in a row.
It’ll win this, but the 11 points are too inviting not to take, even against a team as totally mediocre-to-miserable as Minnesota has been.
The Gophers haven’t been good, and they haven’t been able to go.
The offense has moved okay – Mohamed Ibrahim has been the best running back no one knows about – but the passing attack has been off as QB Tanner Morgan – who was up there with guys named Burrow, Tagovailoa and Hurts in passing efficiency last year – has turned back into Tanner Morgan.
Star WR Rashod Bateman opted back out, the defense is just horrendous, and …
Minnesota is getting 10.5 points from Nebraska. The 54-7 win over an awful Maryland team last season was the only time in the last 15 games the Huskers have won by more than 10.5 points.
Oh sure, they absolutely have the ability to turn the lights out on this Gopher team fast. They also absolutely have the ability shoot themselves in the foot and struggle to put the game away.
Yup, they beat Purdue 37-27 on the road last week with a solid offensive performance, but can they really do it again? They’ll win this, but the 10.5 is just way too many points to be giving away to a Gopher team that should have just enough of a ground game to keep this from going off the rails.
NEXT: Navy at Army
2. Navy at Army
LINE: Army -7.5
ATS PICK: Army
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
After five straight years of close, dramatic games decided by seven points or fewer, we finally got a clunker with last season’s 31-7 Navy win. Now Army is trying to make it three wins in the past four years.
It’s Army vs. Navy, it’s always one of the big games of the season, and it’s going to be totally on the back-burner being played in the middle of a normal college football Saturday.
There might not be the pageantry of normal, and it might not be a stand-alone game, and that’s part of the reason why this is here. Of course the rivalry will be a big deal, but it’s a home game for Army.
Sort of.
The pandemic has moved the game to Michie Stadium, and it’s going to create a different sort of feel – it’s the first time the two have played in West Point since 1943.
Here’s the weird part, though, in terms of how this will be for the teams – it’s going to be intimate and raucous. There might not be the massive crowd like there is when it’s played in Philadelphia, but both sides will be equally represented.
While the marches into the stadium and all that goes into this game might be a huge part of what makes this great, on Saturday, it’s going to be all about the football and all about the Cadets and Midshipmen in the stands getting to go bonkers.
On the field, here’s the big issue – Navy’s running game doesn’t really work.
Army has beaten a fat load of no one, but it was able to slip past Georgia Southern in a thriller and hung tough with Cincinnati. Navy got trucked by BYU and went through an American Athletic Conference schedule, but it’s not like there was a whole lot of success.
Navy’s ground game hasn’t hit 300 yards all yards – Army’s has done it four times, and could’ve done it a fifth against Mercer, but showed mercy. Worse yet, Navy has only hit 200 yards on the ground four times.
Army’s run defense is stronger, Navy already got rocked by Air Force and its brand of option offense, and
Even though three of the wins were against FCS teams, Army has been better overall. Navy is nine points away from being winless, and it’s going to be more than 7.5 points away from beating Army.
NEXT: Wake Forest at Louisville
1. Wake Forest at Louisville
LINE: Louisville -2.5
ATS PICK: Wake Forest
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Point of personal privilege here …
I’ve had a thing for Wake Forest all year, and I’m ticked it doesn’t get to play Notre Dame.
Much forgiveness requested for putting the COVID nightmare into the football world, but the Demon Deacons haven’t been able to play for a month. They might not be all that sharp, but they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this.
Louisville has had time off, too – it hasn’t played since losing to Boston College at the end of November. The Cardinals were okay in the 34-27 loss, but that’s been the season.
They’re okay, and they lose.
The wins? WKU (whatever), Florida State (please), Syracuse (triple-please).
That’s it.
The defense has a hard time with any sort of offensive balance, and in all three of those wins, the other side couldn’t throw. All three failed to throw for 150 yards, and oddly enough, the one other team on the slate who misfired that badly was Notre Dame in a 12-7 Irish win.
Wake Forest will get to 150 yards through the air in the first half.
It managed to slip by Virginia Tech with just 110 yards through the air, but the high-powered O rolled in every other game for 236 yards or more. Against North Carolina in the shootout loss, Sam Hartman went off for 429 and no interceptions, because Sam Hartman has yet to throw an interception this season.
In fact, Wake Forest has only turned it over once in seven games.
Once. And it’s getting 2.5 points.
