What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 13? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 13 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 63-50
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 13 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt
10. TCU at Kansas
LINE: TCU -24
ATS PICK: TCU
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sometimes you don’t ask questions, and you keep going with something good until it stops.
Every time this year you think Kansas is overdue for one of its out-of-the-blue big performances, it gets rocked yet again. The 15-point loss to Coastal Carolina was a relative squeaker, and the closest KU has come in Big 12 play was a 38-17 loss at West Virginia.
It’s a home game, the Jayhawks haven’t played in weeks, and TCU isn’t exactly the most explosive of teams. In many ways the -24 doesn’t make sense, but Kansas can’t get the offense going at all, the lines are a disaster, and TCU has a good enough pass rush and is great on third downs. …
Again, sometimes, you don’t ask questions.
9. Miami University at Akron
LINE: Miami University -14
ATS PICK: Miami University
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The line is way, way, way too low because Miami hasn’t played for a while, and when it did, it was blasted 42-10 by Buffalo, and because Akron is at home.
Even when the Zips played as well as they can, they still lost to Ohio 24-10, and those 14 points are what you’re giving away.
Akron has a bit of a running game, but Miami is a solid team that controls the tempo and should be able to rip through a D that gave up 58 to Western Michigan and 69 to Kent State. MU doesn’t have the same firepower, but a two touchdown win won’t be an issue.
8. Auburn at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -24.5
ATS PICK: Auburn
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
WARNING … I keep picking against Alabama, and I keep getting embarrassed.
I gave you the exact same warning last week before Bama whacked around Kentucky 63-3, and I also send up a flare before I picked Mississippi State to cover – it lost 41-0.
I don’t want to talk about the win over Tennessee.
So why do I keep picking against Bama? Because it’s one of those teams that gets out early, coasts, and then has the defense to give up points late. However, Tennessee, Mississippi State and Kentucky are bad. Auburn isn’t.
If you have visions of the 52-21 Crimson Tide win over the Tigers in 2018, then go for it – you’re probably right. However, Bo Nix and the passing game are finally starting to find something that seems to be working – even if they’re not that consistent – the O doesn’t turn the ball over, and pass defense is the second-best in the SEC, for whatever that’s worth this year.
It’s +24.5 in a rivalry game that’s seen its share of bizarre twists and turns. At some point, this picking against the Alabama slot machine is going to pay out.
7. Kent State at Buffalo
LINE: Buffalo -7.5
ATS PICK: Buffalo
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Three factors here. 1) Revenge. Kent State came up with a miraculous win last year to screw up Buffalo’s season. 2) Buffalo has more talent and it’s dominating everyone, and 3) it’s a schedule play.
UB rocking on the road against Northern Illinois and Bowling Green wasn’t that big a deal, but the 42-10 home win over Miami University was a thing. Kent State put up 62 on Bowling Green and 69 on Akron. That’s Bowling Green and Akron – Buffalo is the best team in the MAC.
See if you can get this at -7, but it’s fine with the hook.
6. San Diego State at Colorado
LINE: Colorado -3
ATS PICK: Colorado
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s been a tough ask so far for a team to pivot from a scheduled game, pick up the stuff, and go on the road to play a game with no prep time. It’s tough for the other side, too, but Arizona struggled in a 44-27 loss at Washington last week – that’s probably what it would’ve been, anyway – in a last-second arrangement, and Cal got blasted at UCLA when it had to change around its opening game.
It’s a good San Diego State team, but it lost two of its last three games without enough offense. It has to make the trip to Boulder – the weather won’t be that bad in the 40s – and Colorado has played well enough offensively over the first two games to get the win. The -3 is a guess by the investing public – that’s going to shoot up.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 13
5. North Texas at UTSA
LINE: UTSA -2.5
ATS PICK: UTSA
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
How fired up are you to take a team partially because it looked great against freaking UTEP?
UTSA is on a nice run of three wins in the last four games and is shooting for a terrific seven-win season. The O rolled for 600 yards against UTEP, kept running in that win over Southern Miss, and now it gets to have a little fun against a North Texas team that has the explosion to make this a shootout.
The Mean Green are a whole lot of fun. They came up with 768 yards against Middle Tennessee, they ran all over Rice, and now, in a bizarre season with a whole slew of cancellations, they’re playing just their second road game of the season.
UTSA is 4-1 at home with the only loss a good battle against Army, which leads to the theme of the week.
Senior Day.
That only goes so far – the emotion can sometimes add more weight and pressure to the game, and it didn’t seem to matter to Texas against Iowa State on Friday – but if you sort of like a game to begin with, it’s an extra sweetener to help make the decision.
North Texas can’t stop the run at all, UTSA has found a groove on the ground, and the defense is a turnover machine.
The Roadrunners are eighth in the nation and leads Conference USA in takeaways, and North Texas is one of the worst teams in college football in turnover margin.
It’s only 2.5 you’re giving away, it’s the final regular season game of the year – and possibly the final game, period – for UTSA, and … it’s Senior Day.
It’s also the final home game – at least for the time being – for …
NEXT: LSU at Texas A&M
4. LSU at Texas A&M
LINE: Texas A&M -15
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You’re worried that LSU finds whatever that groove was that cranked up 52 pants on South Carolina a few weeks ago.
You’re worried that the team has found the gut-check thing that led to a good win over Arkansas last week.
You’re worried that Texas A&M hasn’t played since – seemingly – 2016, and there’s going to be a rust factor.
You worry too much.
Yes, there’s a Senior Day factor for A&M, and as Florida found out back in October, there really is a bit of a home field advantage.
This is a team in a College Football Playoff chase – it’s real now. It’s there. There will be an argument for a team whose only loss is at Alabama and who was able to hang with and beat Florida.
Now it’s not just about winning; it’s about beauty points.
LSU doesn’t have the pass defense, it doesn’t move the chains well enough, and the one advantage it does have – the time of possession battle – is going to be owned by the A&M team that does the control-the-tempo thing better.
The 15 is a big number, but this is the third straight road game for LSU and the fifth in six games.
It’s statement time for A&M, and for …
NEXT: San Jose State at Boise State
3. San Jose State at Boise State
LINE: Boise State -11.5
ATS PICK: Boise State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Boise State has been … weird.
There’s no running game, the defense has been blah, and the loss to BYU – even though the Broncos were down to their third-string quarterback and backup running backs – sort of took away the aura that’s around the better Group of Five programs like Cincinnati and BYU (who’s an independent, but is sort of more Group of Fiveish than Power 5ish).
But the Broncos are getting the job done. Blowing away Utah State is no big whoop, and rolling Colorado State isn’t anything great, but the offense has put up 40 or more on everyone but BYU.
San Jose State beat San Diego State. That’s a strong win, the team found a way get the job done, and it pulled it off with just 298 yards of total offense and no real running game.
The other three wins? A struggle against Air Force, New Mexico, and UNLV – all at home.
It’s still a historic run for the Spartan program, and it’s a really, really good story, but the 11.5 line is just about right.
Boise State … at home … on the national FOX stage and after having being disrespected by the College Football Playoff committee.
And it’s Senior Day.
It’s all set up for a big performance by the Broncos.
NEXT: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
2. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
LINE: Oklahoma State -11
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Is the Oklahoma State backfield okay? Sort of.
Star RB Chuba Hubbard still has an ankle injury, and QB Spencer Sanders is still trying to come back from banging his head on the turf in the loss to Oklahoma, but this isn’t about the Cowboy offense.
It really isn’t about the Cowboy offense.
There are plenty of reasons to be nervous about an attack that’s been a relative disappointment, but after the first part of the season, it’s been okay at home.
There are also plenty of reasons to be nervous about the 11-point spread for a team that was able hit that against Kansas – but who doesn’t – and back in September against West Virginia, but that’s it.
But there are plenty of reasons to not like Texas Tech, either.
The Red Raiders have forgotten how to do the whole offense thing.
This is Texas freaking Tech – it’s the program that threw for 400 yards per game before breakfast in shootout after shootout.
The offense hasn’t come up with more than 400 yards in the last five games, it’s struggling to score, and it got rocked on the road against TCU and Iowa State by 16.
Blow off what happened against a red-hot Oklahoma offense – the Oklahoma State defense is terrific.
It stuffed Kansas State, stopped Texas – but the team had other issues – and it’s been among the Big 12’s best all season long.
To keep with the theme, it’s Senior Day, and it’s a must win for the Cowboys to stay in the Big 12 title chase.
NEXT: Troy at Appalachian State
1. Troy at Appalachian State
LINE: Appalachian State -13.5
ATS PICK: Appalachian State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is going off of two gigantic assumptions.
First, Appalachian State is the third-best team in the Sun Belt, and it might even be second if it beats Louisiana next week. The Mountaineers lost in a good battle with Marshall and last week in a heartbreaker against Costa Carolina.
This hasn’t been the dominant force it was over previous seasons, but it’s still among the league’s most talented teams, the running game is still outstanding, and even after what happened against the Chanticleers, it’s still deep in the Sun Belt championship chase.
And the second assumption? Troy can’t beat good teams.
It started out 4-2 with what seemed to be a great win on the road at Arkansas State, but that’s not as strong now. It lost in a fight to Georgia State, it lost in a fight to Georgia Souther, and it lost in a fight to a bad Middle Tennessee in a rematch of the Trojan opener.
Troy hasn’t been blown out by anyone other than BYU, it has a great passing game, and it has the defense to keep this from getting out of hand.
This isn’t going to be easy to get the cover, but Appalachian State is at home, is has one of the best pass defenses in the country, and Troy really, really can’t run the ball.
The Trojans turn it over too much, they’re going to have to press, and they’re not efficient enough in the red zone.
Again, you’ll have to sweat it out, but being 13.5 and not 14.5 matters – Appalachian State takes this by two touchdowns at home.
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 13 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
