What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 12? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 12 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 12 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 59-44
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 12 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt
10. Cincinnati at UCF
LINE: Cincinnati -5
ATS PICK: Cincinnati
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It seems like this should be when Cincinnati gets tripped up, and UCF is certainly dangerous enough to go off and ruin the dream season at home, but this isn’t quite the UCF team of past years.
The offense has been awesome, and the defense hasn’t been totally miserable, but there’s been absolutely no blip in any way for the Bearcats. It’s not just the UC running game that’s dominating, it’s a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 17 points to anyone but Austin Peay in the opener.
If you really thing Cincinnati will win, the five points you’re giving away shouldn’t matter for a team that wins by an average of over 29 points per game.
9. Georgia Southern at Army
LINE: Army -3
ATS PICK: Georgia Southern
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Army always has a way of screwing up the best of ideas and analysis, but here it goes anyway …
Georgia Southern does what Army does in an apples to other apples sort of way, only a wee bit better against better competition.
Army lives on time of possession and ball control – and the Eagles do that better. Army is a runs the ball better than Georgia Southern, but not by much, and Georgia Southern a more effective passing game. The three points aren’t enough to matter – and the +135 on the money line isn’t enough to dive in – but Georgia Southern has been better against better competition than Army has.
8. UCLA at Oregon
LINE: Oregon -13.5
ATS PICK: Oregon
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
As always, begging forgiveness for using a devastating global pandemic to analyze football, especially when it involves college kids …
Oregon was a good call at just under two touchdowns before against UCLA, and now a whole slew of Bruins are questionable to doubtful for the game, including QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Meanwhile, as this is being written – stunningly – the line hasn’t budged. It should be at around -17.5 for the Ducks, but even then, that wouldn’t be bad.
7. Kentucky at Alabama
LINE: Alabama -32
ATS PICK: Kentucky
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Alabama is going to win. Kentucky doesn’t beat Alabama at football, and even in a “it’s 2020” sort of way, it’s not going to happen. UK doesn’t have the offense to keep up, and Bama has been consistently awesome at a whole other level. However, Kentucky has enough of a defense – to go along with the deliberate style – to keep the game from getting out of hand.
Blow off that UK just gave up 35 points to Vanderbilt – this will be one of those games that seems like it was even more of a blowout than it actually was.
6. Michigan at Rutgers
LINE: Michigan -11.5
ATS PICK: Michigan
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Michigan is a mess. It’s coming off a brutally embarrassing loss to Wisconsin, coming off a brutally embarrassing loss to Indiana, coming off a brutally embarrassing loss to Michigan State. This is a lost season, Jim Harbaugh is all but off to the New York Jets to be the Trevor Lawrence whisperer, and …
Rutgers still isn’t very good.
Rutgers is better, it’s more competitive, and it has the pass rush and the active defensive front to bother a Michigan backfield that’s been lost over the last three weeks. However, Rutgers lost at home to a bad Illinois team, hasn’t shown enough on offense, and … Michigan owes us for picking it here against IU and MSU.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 12
5. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
LINE: Oklahoma -7
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If you’re going to dive in, go head first. (Not really, but … okay.)
If you think an underdog is going to win outright, then of course you’re going to like it against the spread.
Oklahoma State is a decent +220 on the money line, and it’s getting seven points after opening up as a +10. The offensive pop is there to keep up if this gets into a Bedlam shootout, but this is all on the Cowboy defense.
OSU has has yet to allow over 400 yards in passing offense, West Virginia was the only team to come up with more than 200 yards through the air, and the only loss came to Texas when OSU did everything right except for a few key breakdowns.
Oklahoma’s offense is rolling. Pushing the 500-yard mark in every game but the loss to Iowa State and the win over Texas as the attack is balanced, the passing game is improving with Spencer Rattler getting more experience, and the points are coming.
However, after surviving a near-collapse against Texas, who has OU beaten?
A punchless TCU, a Texas Tech that has stopped playing offense, and a Kansas that just plain stopped altogether.
Again, the call is that Oklahoma State will take this outright with a huge performance from its defense, but if it doesn’t, you’re getting seven.
NEXT: San Diego State at Nevada
4. San Diego State at Nevada
LINE: PICK
ATS PICK: San Diego State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is based on the belief that San Diego State might just be the best team in the Mountain West, and if it plays up to its full capability, it might not be close outside of what Boise State brings.
New head coach Brady Hoke – on his second stint with the team – has been able to keep the defense dominant while adding a bit more pop to the offense. After years of seemingly winning every game 12-7, now the Aztecs have more of a downfield passing attack.
It’s a road game against a 4-0 Nevada team that’s been amazing so far – especially through the air – but it got by Wyoming at home in a shootout, and then played UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have put up gaudy stats against a slew of mediocre-to-awful teams, and there hasn’t been any running game to go along with it.
Okay, okay, okay, so San Diego State beat UNLV, Utah State, and roasted Hawaii at home, and it lost to San Jose State. However, that loss to SJSU was strange – the Aztecs dominated but made a few key mistakes it couldn’t overcome.
The defense has yet to allow anyone come up with 300 yards of total offense, the Nevada defense isn’t anything special – especially against the pass – and SDSU has the exact right mix to pull this off.
It’s No. 2 in the nation in total defense, No. 3 in tackles for loss per game, No. 2 in third down defense, and No. 8 in time of possession. You’re not giving away any points here in a pick ’em game.
NEXT: Arkansas State at Texas State
3. Arkansas State at Texas State
LINE: Arkansas State -6
ATS PICK: Arkansas State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The line has gone up, and it’s possible to find this at around 4.5 at some places, but even at -6, Arkansas State is the right play for one specific reason: Texas State doesn’t win.
The worry is last week’s Bobcat game at Georgia Southern. The Eagles are terrific, the pass rush is solid, the running game is among the best in the country, and the team is great at being able to control everything about a game.
Texas State ran for 30 yards, failed to get to 300 yards of total offense, and it only lost by two.
The Bobcats were able to push Boston College to the wire – and lost. They got into a wild shootout and had a chance late for the win against UTSA – and lost. The hung around with Louisiana, battled hard against SMU, and weren’t bad for against Appalachian State. – and lost, lost, lost.
– Week 12 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
The one Texas State win this season was over a ULM team that has yet to win a game.
Arkansas State hasn’t exactly been burning it up, losing three straight after a 3-2 start. It got dropkicked by 28 at home to Troy – Texas State only lost by 20 to the Trojans on the road – and now it’s on the last leg of a run of three road games in four dates.
If you can start by buying into the idea that Texas State isn’t going to win, then go from there.
The Arkansas State passing game has worked just fine even in losses, however, the team is 3-1 this year when throwing for 300 yards or more and 0-4 when it doesn’t.
Texas State has allowed over 300 yards five times, and when it didn’t, it was usually because teams like UTSA, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern were too busy running.
Oh, you’ll have to sweat it out – Texas State is going to battle – but you’re asking for a win by a touchdown against a 1-9 team.
NEXT: Iowa at Penn State
2. Iowa at Penn State
LINE: Iowa -1.5
ATS PICK: Iowa
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
At some point, Penn State is going to flip it back around.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you are what your record is, and 0-4 is never going to be okay at Penn State no matter what, but the team really is better than this.
Lost in the narrative was how it owned Indiana on the road for around 58 minutes before it all fell apart, including getting hosed at the end. Since then, the running back corps has been depleted, the quarterback situation became an issue, and the defense full of great parts can’t seem to come up with a meaningful stop.
The team is trying hard – it made a push in the loss to the Huskers, and …
0-4 is 0-4.
Call this a momentum play.
Iowa’s passing game is mediocre, and it struggle in key spots late defensively early on, but if Penn State is given a little bit of love despite being 0-4, Iowa deserves some respect for being 2-2 when it very easily could’ve been 4-0.
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
The O line apparently needed a few games to kick it all in, and now the running game is rocking with blasting performances in back-to-back weeks against Michigan State and Minnesota.
Penn State keeps losing even when the defense is playing well – holding IU to just 211 yards, and most of those coming in the final two minutes, and limiting Nebraska to 298 – and now it has to deal with the deliberate and tough Hawkeye ground attack.
Penn State could absolutely rise up, rally, and win this, but it hasn’t shown the ability to come through in the clutch yet, and Iowa won its last two games by a combined score of 84-14.
NEXT: Georgia State at South Alabama
1. Georgia State at South Alabama
LINE: Georgia State -3.5
ATS PICK: Georgia State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Let’s start with the dumb reason to like Georgia State over South Alabama, and then comes the real one.
Besides Georgia State being better than South Alabama at college football, there’s the … pattern.
Sorry, but for some in this world, the idea of following a set way of doing things when making a big pick works, and Georgia State has alternated loss, win, loss, win on through the season, and it just lost to Appalachian State, so to hold the pattern, its due for a win.
South Alabama has a pattern of losing three straight games with the offense struggling, scoring a grand total of 33 points in the three.
The Jaguars are stronger than their 3-5 record, and they’re coming off a three-game road run before finally getting back home for the first time since October 24th. They battled Tulane hard early in the season in a tough 27-24 loss, pushed Georgia Southern on the road, and weren’t all that bad in a 23-6 loss to Coastal Carolina.
The problem is an offense that hasn’t been able to do much of anything on the ground and failed to hit 270 yards in two of its last three games. The bigger problem this week is a run defense that allowed 236 yards or more in each of the last three games – USA is 0-5 when allowing 190 rushing yards or more, and 3-0 when it doesn’t.
– Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
Georgia State was only held to under 210 yards twice, and that was against Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State – two of the Sun Belt’s superstars.
Going on the road isn’t a problem – the Panthers won at Troy and got into a shootout with Arkansas State – the defense has one of the best pass rushes in the Sun Belt, and the D leads the league in takeaways.
The spread should be closer to ten, and it’s just 3.5.
And, of course, you can’t go against a pattern, because … it’s a pattern.
