What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 11? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 11 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 10 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 52-41
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 11 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West
10. Southern Miss at WKU
LINE: WKU -8
ATS PICK: Southern Miss
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Start with this: WKU doesn’t score.
That’s been said several times in several ways over several articles over the the last year or so, but it remains true. The Hilltoppers haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of the last five games, and it’s not like every game has been against a killer defense.
Not scoring against BYU and Marshall is one thing, but a 13-10 win over Chattanooga and a 10-6 loss to Florida Atlantic were thrown in there. Southern Miss has been awful, and the defense is bad, and there hasn’t been enough scoring, and …
Until WKU can prove it can score, take the chance that it can’t win by more than eight.
Speaking of going with the flow until something changes …
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9. Fresno State at Utah State
LINE: Fresno State -10
ATS PICK: Utah State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Don’t make this any harder than it has to be. Utah State just went through a coaching change – firing Gary Andersen – and hasn’t shown anything positive so far in an 0-3 start.
Again, don’t think, just throw. The Aggies lost by 29, 31, and 25 to Boise State, San Diego State and Nevada, respectively. The offense has been totally inept, and the defense was hammered hard on the ground by the Aztecs and through the air by Nevada.
Fresno State struggled out of the gate, but rolled by Colorado State by 21 and UNLV by 13. Until Utah State shows something different, assume it can’t lose on the road to a decent team by fewer than ten.
8. TCU at West Virginia
LINE: West Virginia -3
ATS PICK: West Virginia
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
West Virginia’s defense is really, really strong.
It’s fourth in the nation, No. 1 in the Big 12, and the team is fantastic at controlling the clock. Being at home seems to really, really matter, going 4-0 in Morgantown and 0-3 on the road. The Mountaineers haven’t been bad on the road, but the defense has been a rock at home.
It helps to get Eastern Kentucky, Baylor and Kansas in your house, but the win over Kansas State was dominant.
The problem? TCU is far better on the road, beating Texas and Baylor, and going 1-3 at home. However, like the Mountaineer defense in this to go along with another big day from QB Jarret Doege, who has thrown for 300 yards in four straight games.
7. Temple at UCF
LINE: USC -26
ATS PICK: Temple
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Temple has shown you absolutely nothing so far. The offense hasn’t been good enough, the defense has been a huge disappointment, and the team overall hasn’t been able to get anything going. Going to the Bounce House to deal with UCF isn’t any cure for playing poorly.
However, the Owls have enough of a passing game to at least put up 28 points or more on the board. UCF is an unstoppable offensive machine, but the defense has been a disaster far too often, and the team has yet to beat anyone by 26. Temple will lose in a blowout, but those are way too many points to give away.
6. USC at Arizona
LINE: USC -14.5
ATS PICK: Arizona
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
USC got the bad game out of the way – at least that should be the case. The Trojans weren’t bad against Arizona State in the miraculous 28-27 win. On the contrary, the secondary was terrific, and the offense was able to move late when absolutely needed in the comeback.
As is the case across college football this year, every team seems to need a week or so to get ready. Blame the early start, blame the opener, blame Arizona State being that good, but USC is better than it showed.
How much has Arizona improved after losing its last seven games? It hasn’t – at least in terms of defensive personnel – and it hasn’t had a chance to get a game under its belt. USC has won seven in a row in the series and nine of the last ten. The passing game is about to bomb away.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 11
5. Hawaii at San Diego State
LINE: San Diego State -10
ATS PICK: San Diego State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The double-digit line for a San Diego State team that’s not going to score all that often might seem like a lot, but if the defense does what it’s supposed to do, that won’t be a problem.
The loss to San Jose State was weird.
The Aztecs allowed fewer than 300 yards of Spartan offense, and it dominated in so many ways, but the offense turned it over three times and they all became a problem.
SDSU’s D is just that good, the offense that came up with a season-high 261 passing yards should be able to do enough to keep things moving, and Hawaii has to be physical after way too much early travel.
Three of the final four Rainbow Warrior games are in Honolulu, but over the last four weeks the team had to go to Fresno, then go to Laramie, Wyoming, then go back home to play New Mexico, and now have to go to San Diego.
San Diego State hasn’t had to move too much. More than that, Hawaii isn’t going to do the offensive things it’ll need to.
It ran well against Fresno State, but that’s not happening this week. It threw well against New Mexico, but that’s not happening this week. It came up with a grand total of 233 yards of total offense against Wyoming, and it lost 31-7.
NEXT: South Carolina at Ole Miss
4. South Carolina at Ole Miss
LINE: South Carolina -12
ATS PICK: South Carolina
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
All of a sudden, the South Carolina defense has gone bye-bye.
It got rocked for 52 points against LSU, and followed it up with a listless 48-3 loss to Texas A&M, and now it gets an Ole Miss team that’s ripping though just about everything in its path …
Yardage-wise.
The Rebels are second in the SEC in total offense behind Alabama, averaging a whopping 541 yards per game. However, it’s averaging 38 points per game. That’s fantastic, of course, but it’s a problem when your defense is dead last in the SEC by ten miles, or more like a gigantic 55 yards per game more than LSU.
Ole Miss might be a whole lot of fun, but it’s not actually winning anything big. It blew out Vanderbilt, but who doesn’t? Okay, Mississippi State doesn’t, but that’s the only Ole Miss win so far by more than one point, and that 42-41 victory over South Carolina was the only other win.
South Carolina could absolutely lose this game.
No, don’t assume the team quit – LSU had a great game at home and Texas A&M might be College Football Playoff good – and now it’s getting 12 points.
It’s a good chance worth taking.
NEXT: Colorado at Stanford
3. Colorado at Stanford
LINE: Stanford -8.5
ATS PICK: Stanford
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This was a lot nicer when it was Stanford -7, but even though the line boosted up a tick, let’s just stick with it.
Always go with your first answer.
Across the college football board this year, teams – more than ever before – make a big leap from Week 1 to Week 2.
That’s going to be Stanford.
I’ve been telling everyone all offseason and just before the Pac-12 campaign kicked in that Stanford was very good and very underrated in the overall conference picture.
And then the team announces 90 minutes before kickoff against Oregon that star QB Davis Mills is out and the Cardinal lost 35-14.
Mills is back – the positive test that kept him on the sidelines turned out fine – and all of the other parts are still there, and …
Oregon might just be that good.
The Stanford offensive line is a rock, the running game tore off more yards – 197 – than it did in any game last year, and outside of PK Jet Toner’s inability to kick a football straight, it wasn’t that bad a performance.
Colorado’s offense was great in the win over UCLA, but the defense gave up almost 500 yards and the offensive side isn’t going to be nearly as efficient or as good this week.
NEXT: Wake Forest at North Carolina
2. Wake Forest at North Carolina
LINE: North Carolina -13.5
ATS PICK: Wake Forest
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Notre Dame fans, watch this game between two teams your Irish will have to face on the road.
North Carolina games are always scary – which team will show up?
Will it be the one that can rip apart a team like NC State, keep rolling against a Virginia Tech, and dominate Duke, or is it the one that can’t put together a full 60 minutes in losses to Florida State and Virginia?
The one big concern here is the home atmosphere. The Tar Heels are 3-0 in Chapel Hill, winning all three by 11 or more.
But you’ll take anything under 14.
Wake Forest is very, very, very, very, very, very quietly having a decent year.
It doesn’t have the big name. It doesn’t have any splashy stars. It doesn’t get a whole lot of national play, but it was good enough to cover relatively easily in the 37-13 loss to Clemson to open the season, lost a good 45-42 fight at NC State, and then reeled off four straight wins.
The offense has the balance and downfield passing attack to keep up if this gets into a shootout, and the defense has been a relative rock over the last four months – it does a lot of bending, but it only allowed more than 16 points once in the last three games, a 40-23 win over Virginia.
What you like here are those 13.5 points.
The North Carolina defense is hit-or-miss, and while the team should win, again, Wake Forest is just good enough to keep this from being a total wipeout.
NEXT: Florida State at NC State
1. Florida State at NC State
LINE: NC State -10.5
ATS PICK: NC State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This was going to be Pitt giving away just 6.5 points to Georgia Tech – the Panther defensive front was going to CRUSH the Yellow Jacket offense – but that’s gone now.
NC State over Florida State isn’t a bad consolation prize.
If you’ve been reading this piece over the last few months, it’s been overly bullish on NC State for good and occasionally bad, but this time around, the pieces are there for this to work even if it’s giving away a whole lot of points.
Also, this is trying to recapture the glory of taking Pitt -2.5 over the Noles in last week’s 10 Best Predictions piece – a 41-17 Panther win.
Florida State is having a rough time.
Gone is QB James Blackman – a backup now, but a good mentor for starter Jordan Travis – along with DT Marvin Wilson, OT Devontay Love-Taylor and leading receiver Tamorrion Terry. It’s a complete reboot being done for FSU, and it wasn’t like the team was playing all that well when they were all around.
The Noles came up with a shocking performance at home to beat North Carolina a few weeks ago, but that’s the only win over an FCS team. All three of the road games were ugly blowouts, and since that UNC win, the last two games against Louisville and Pitt were decided by a combined score of 89-33.
NC State might not be anything amazing, but its at home, it has enough of a passing game to score early and often, and the defensive front should stop any aspect of the FSU running game cold.
Week 11 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West
