What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Big Teams, Big Spreads, Big Wins Week 14?
Week 14 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 14 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 14 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 69-53
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Week 14 Game Previews, Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt
10. Kansas at Texas Tech
LINE: Texas Tech -25.5
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
We begin with a pick that I actually believe is probably wrong.
When the line first came out and was adjusted for Texas Tech -27.5, that seemed like a bit too much. The Red Raiders don’t really score enough on a regular basis, Kansas is way overdue to do something against a team with an awful defense, and …
It’s Kansas. In a ride-the-train-until-it-stops way, throw out most of the logic and reason, and blow off that this is a game we all should probably stay away from. The world is so up on picking against Kansas this year that we can all afford one misfire if this doesn’t work.
This might be Texas Tech’s last game of the season – Kansas is supposed to close out with Texas – and it’s at home where it won all three of its games.
9. Memphis at Tulane
LINE: Tulane -3
ATS PICK: Memphis
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
What’s weird is how fast this flipped.
It opened at Memphis -1 – which seemed like a bit of a good deal then – and all of a sudden, the world fell in love with Tulane and this moved all way up to Green Wave -3, and -3.5 in some spots.
No, this isn’t the Memphis of last year, but 1) Tulane has beaten NO ONE. The best victory of the season was against a mediocre Army team. 2) There’s a little bit of a Green Wave passing game, but not enough of one to get into a twist over, and 3) Memphis is actually good against the run.
The Tigers have won five of their last six, they’ve only had real issues with the Navy and Cincinnati ground attacks, and while they’ve struggled against some bad teams, they’ve won.
Sticking with strange American Athletic Conference calls …
8. Tulsa at Navy
LINE: Tulsa -12.5
ATS PICK: Navy
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
That is one big number for a Tulsa team that has a way of playing up or down to its competition, and then pulls out the win with something miraculous.
The big concern is that in a that’s-what-you-do sort of way, this Navy team is like an Arby’s that runs out of roast beef. The run-only team can’t really run the ball.
It’s fine, but is struggling to get to four yards per carry and it’s not controlling games like it needs to. Tulsa has been solid all season long against the run, and it needs this win to lock up a trip to the American Athletic Conference title game, but …
That number. Tulsa has one double-digit win this season and it’s against a bad USF team. This is the final home game of the season for Navy, and last week, Tulsa faced a Tulane team that needed to run to win, was held to 302 yards of total offense, and it was a 30-24 Golden Hurricane win.
7. Georgia Tech at NC State
LINE: NC State -6
ATS PICK: NC State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It seems like everyone got freaked out over the last few weeks.
NC State has quietly gone 7-3 by beating all the teams it was supposed to, and losing to the teams – at Virginia Tech, at North Carolina, Miami – that it should’ve. However, needing a blocked field goal to beat Liberty didn’t help in the public perception department, and needing a fourth down spike by Syracuse to get out 36-29 last week wasn’t a plus.
Combine that with a Georgia Tech 56-33 win over Duke last week, and the public has pulled the line down from NC State -7.
However, in an It’s Senior Day way, the Pack should take this by a touchdown. More importantly, NC State has a run defense – Syracuse came up with three rushing yards on 25 carries. The team is 7-0 when allowing fewer than 189 yards, and 0-3 when it doesn’t.
Georgia Tech hasn’t hit 189 yards in there of its last four games.
6. Oregon at Cal
LINE: Oregon -9
ATS PICK: Oregon
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
In one of the weirder disappointments of the season, Cal is awful.
It’s 0-3, it couldn’t get by Oregon State on the road a few weeks ago even though the passing game worked, and it saw its shot against Stanford go bye-bye last week on a blocked extra point.
There’s no downfield passing game whatsoever, there’s no pressure in the backfield, and being last in the Pac-12 in total offense isn’t a positive against this Oregon team.
The Ducks haven’t been as strong as their preseason hype – at least if everything was normal, and HELLO, where’s the pass rush? – but the offense should be able to do enough to push for close to 40 points. Cal just doesn’t have that type of pop against a team that’s going to be a tad salty after last week’s foggy loss to Oregon State.
NEXT: Top 5 Picks Against The Spread, Week 14
5. Oklahoma State at TCU
LINE: Oklahoma State -2.5
ATS PICK: Oklahoma State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Something just isn’t right here, and that’s the scary part.
It seems too good to be true.
Yeah, Oklahoma State is all but out of the Big 12 title chase in a weird tie-breaker sort of way.
Yeah, it crushed a whole lot of people’s hearts last week by allowing too many late points to Texas Tech. Yeah, it’s a banged up team that hasn’t played all that well over the last month.
And yeah, if you’re a patterns player, this week is supposed to be the loss after going win-loss-win-loss-win.
I know, I know, we make too much out of Senior Day and a team’s last home game – fat lot of good that did Texas last week against Iowa State – but there’s a flip side to that. TCU still gets a layup next week against Louisiana Tech at home, so that extra juice of emotion isn’t there this week.
Don’t get caught up in the Horned Frogs winning three of their last four. Baylor isn’t good at college football, and neither is Texas Tech, and Kansas really isn’t good at its craft.
Also don’t get caught up in the home aspect – the win over Texas Tech was TCU’s first win all year in Fort Worth.
After last week’s shoddy performance against the Red Raiders, and following the 41-13 obliteration against Oklahoma the week before, Oklahoma State’s D is due to rebound big and revert to form.
Expect it to take a minor miracle for the Horned Frogs have even the slightest flirtation with 400 yards of total offense – they’ll be happy to get to 350.
NEXT: Miami at Duke
4. Miami at Duke
LINE: Miami -14.5
ATS PICK: Miami
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
And this starts the theme of the week for the next three games on the list.
Big Teams, Big Spreads, Big Wins.
Over the first part of the season, the underdog was always, always, always the play no matter how illogical it might have been. Teams weren’t in shape, they weren’t sharp, and everything was a bit … off.
Now we can see those patterns and adjust. In this case, there’s a something-to-play-for factor here, too.
What’s interesting about this is how the ACC Championship chase will be playing out with Clemson facing Virginia Tech at around the same time the Canes are doing their thing in Durham. If the Hokies pull off the shocker and win, Miami is in the ACC title game against Notre Dame with a victory over Duke and then with a win over North Carolina next week.
Whatever … it’s not like the Hurricane players are going into this thinking about all the crazy scenarios.
Miami hasn’t been able to play over the last several weeks, Duke gave up 56 in back-to-back games against North Carolina and Georgia Tech, and the team that’s given away a whopping 30 turnovers on the year is about to meet a defense that has a chain it likes to show off (but hasn’t used enough this season).
The Duke D that allowed close to 1,100 yards of total offense and hasn’t done a thing against the run over the last two games is about to have issues.
Big Teams, Big Spreads, Big Wins, Part 2 …
NEXT: Florida at Tennessee
3. Florida at Tennessee
LINE: Florida -17.5
ATS PICK: Florida
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Florida still needs to work.
Its path to the College Football Playoff is clear – win this, beat LSU, beat Alabama. Easy peasy.
However, it would do the Gators a whole lot of good if it could lock up the trip to the SEC Championship with a blowout win.
There’s still a theoretical case to be made that if they obliterate the Vols this week and destroy the Tigers next week, a tough, close loss to Bama could still mean they’re one of the four best teams in college football, even with two losses.
And then there’s the Tennessee Can’t Score side of things.
The Vols haven’t been able to pus up more than 17 over the last four games and haven’t scored more than 21 over this long, dark five-game losing streak.
The pass defense that was hit by Alabama for 417 yards back in October and allowed 215 or more against everyone but Kentucky now gets Kyle Trask and the Florida fun show.
Throw in the loss of top pass rusher Kivon Bennett, and the defense should have as many problems as the struggling offense.
NEXT: Alabama at LSU
2. Alabama at LSU
LINE: Alabama -29.5
ATS PICK: Alabama
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sorry for this, but it’s chasing time.
I’m chasing after Texas A&M had LSU beaten easily – until a late Tiger TD ruined the spread in a 20-7 Aggie win.
I’m chasing Alabama after the season-opener gave me a false sense of confidence.
I picked Missouri to cover against the Tide, and the Tiger D that has turned out to be great kept it in range in a 38-19 Bama win.
Of course Texas A&M’s defense was good enough to make it close the following week.
Nope.
Of course Tennessee at home was going to dial up something special to at least come up with something in the fourth quarter to cover.
Double nope.
It’s Kentucky – every Kentucky game is close, and …
63-3.
Let’s not get into the It’s The Iron Bowl And Auburn Always Plays Bama Tough thing in last week’s 42-13 Tide win.
LSU’s defense has actually been okay at times. The secondary still has talent, and the pass rush is good enough to at least be a problem if the Tide aren’t focused after the emotion of beating their arch-rival like a drum, and …
I’m done trying to make a pick happen against Alabama.
The O gets the headlines, but the Tide D has been just as much of a star lately, allowing 33 points total over the last four games.
Even though it’s just LSU’s second home game since the opener against Mississippi State, Bama will take care of this fast.
And thus ends the Big Teams, Big Spreads, Big Wins week with a slammed shut door, because No. 1 is …
NEXT: Bowling Green at Akron
1. Bowling Green at Akron
LINE: Akron -2.5
ATS PICK: Akron
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The 2017 Akron Zips under head coach Terry Bowden lost to Toledo in the MAC Championship, and went on to get rocked by Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team 50-3 in the Boca Raton Bowl.
It was a strong 7-7 season, followed up by a not-bad 4-3 start to the 2018 campaign – highlighted by a stunning win over a Northwestern team that would go on to play in the Big Ten championship.
Akron beat Central Michigan 17-10 on October 27th, 2018. The next week it lost to Northern Illinois to kick off a run of five losses to end the season and 21 losses in a row coming into this week.
What’s worse, only two of those 21 defeats were by fewer than double-digits. One of those blowouts was at Bowling Green last season 35-6.
This year’s Akron team is having, let’s just say, a few issues – going 0-4 with 13 points or fewer in three of the losses – but it can run the ball.
It couldn’t do it all against Miami University last week – gaining four rushing yards whether it needed them or not – but it rumbled for 212 yards on the road at Kent State and 216 against Ohio.
Bowling Green has allowed 1,356 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns in four games.
The Falcons boast the nation’s least-efficient passing game, they’re dead-last in third down conversions – to go along with the worst run defense in college football – and the one lonely takeaway hasn’t been enough to help for a team that dropped its first four games by a total score of 194-54.
In Big Teams, Big Spreads, Big Wins Week, this one win for the Zips couldn’t be any bigger.
Week 14 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Week 14 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 14 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
