What ten Ohio State vs Alabama College Football Playoff National Championship predictions appear to be the best bets and picks?
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It’s Ohio State vs. Alabama.
It’s big-time vs. big-time, and we all want and need a really, really good college football game to close out the 2020 season.
Here are the ten best-looking prop bets, predictions, and big picks for tonight’s showdown. Warning … there’s a crossing of the streams here.
Value means as much or more here as anything else – so there will be a few contradictions. Let these confirm, deny, or help you in some way go with your already held beliefs.
Happy College Football Playoff National Championship night.
10. First score of the game an Alabama TD
LINE: +140
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Of course the first score might be a weird safety, or some quirky special teams or defensive touchdown, but that’s unlikely.
Alabama has managed to score the first in 11 of its 12 games, and in the one time it didn’t – the win over Ole Miss – its first points came on a touchdown. Three times, Bama scored first on a field goal, but the overwhelming number is on the side of scoring a touchdown first.
Clemson scored a touchdown first to open up the scoring against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, and Northwestern got the first touchdown – but the Buckeyes scored first on a field goal – in the Big Ten Championship.
Nebraska opened up the season with a touchdown drive on the Buckeye D.
Go Bama. Roll the first touchdown as the first score of the game.
9. Alabama QB Mac Jones over 365.5 passing yards
LINE: -110
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Oh why not?
Jones having an awful day is the one thing no one seems to be thinking about, and obviously this is a big number to hit no matter what, but how many times has he thrown for over 365 yards this year?
Now as many as you might think – six of the 12. However, that Trevor Lawrence guy hit Ohio State for 400 and Indiana’s Michael Penix cranked up 491. Even ol’ Rutgers went for 232.
There’s no real value at -110, but if you like Bama, you’re probably going to with some big stat pick like this anyway.
But if you’re going for the play that favors the bigger odds …
8. Ohio State money line and over 59.5
LINE: +360
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s the same +360 if you’re going for 59.5 or 60.5, and you might as well get the extra value for that one more point from Ohio State on the money line and Over 58.5 at +340.
There’s far better value on this at Ohio State on the money line and with each team scoring 30 or more – more on that later – but if you think Ohio State is going to win, it’s probably going to be some sort of an offensive show both ways. And if it’s not, 59.5 isn’t asking for the world, here.
Remember, the Clemson obliteration of Bama in Santa Clara was 44-16.
7. Alabama RB Brian Robinson over 19.5 rushing yards
LINE: -105
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s no value, but if you have an inkling …
The Ohio State run defense is terrific. It held Clemson to just 44 yards on the ground, gave up 44 to Penn State, too, and Indiana cranked up one fewer yard than you did – it netted -1 in the 42-35 loss – back in November.
Robinson has gone over 19.5 yards eight times, but he didn’t get there against Florida in the SEC Championship or against Notre Dame. All it takes, though, is one big dash, and if this somehow turns into any sort of Bama blowout, he’ll get the ball late.
6. Alabama RB Najee Harris to score the first TD
LINE: +325
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Going back to the first item on the list at No. 10. Alabama has scored first in 11 of the 12 games, and it scored the first touchdown in nine of the 12. Out of those nine, how many games did Najee Harris score the first TD on the first score of the contest?
Five.
At +325, he’s worth the flier.
NEXT: Top 5 CFP National Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Props
5. Over first half total 38
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even if you think these two are going to come up with an epic offensive battle, that’s still a big number to hit for a half.
The total is set for 75, so to get there, the two teams have to get to 38 in at least one of the halves – duh.
However, the 35-14 Ohio State lead over Clemson at halftime of the Rose Bowl was way above the norm.
Ohio State has outscored teams by about an average of 25-7 in the first half.
Alabama? It only outscored Notre Dame 21-7 at halftime. Like Ohio State’s game, that’s an anomaly, but in the other way – Bama games end the first half by an average of 29-16.
Last year at half? LSU 28, Clemson 17 – over the 38.
The disaster in Santa Clara? Clemson 31, Alabama 16 – over the 38.
Jalen Hurts was throwing worm-burners all over the place as Bama got down 13-0 at halftime to Georgia to end the 2017 season, and Bama was only up 14-7 against Clemson in Tampa.
Even the epic 45-40 Alabama win over Clemson to end the 2015 season was only 14-14 at halftime.
With these two offenses, hope for the first half offensive trend of the last two years to continue – even if it will probably directly contradict No. 2 on the list.
NEXT: Alabama money line and both teams score 30 or more
4. Alabama money line and both teams score 30 or more
LINE: +155
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Here’s where this gets on the contradictory side.
The belief here is that Ohio State pulls this off, however, would I be the slightest bit shocked if Alabama won? Of course not – this is as much of a toss-up as it gets, even if the world is doing you a solid by handing you the Buckeyes and 8.5 points.
And, fair warning, this exact same top prop bet will come up to the Big Ten side in just a moment. However, if you think Alabama is going to win, this is one of the few ways you’ll be able to find a little bit of value.
There’s no point in taking the Tide on the money line – they’re -315. There isn’t enough skin in the game to make ML the call, especially since Ohio State is just that good to pull it off.
However, add in the potential of each team scoring over 30, and all of a sudden Alabama on the money line plus there’s a swing of 470 going the other way.
Again, this is only if you’re a Bama believer and you think this will be a shootout. Now to totally contradict a key element of this, when it comes to the investment belief systems …
NEXT: Under 75
3. Under 75
LINE: -110
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s no value here to dive in too deep, but as has been a part of the belief system all season, if someone wants to assume a game will see 70 points or more, you go under, and then enjoy the game no matter what.
Either it’s under the total and you win, or its over, you tip your cap, and you enjoy the wild and crazy show – especially in this game.
Now, full disclosure, I actually believe this is going over. I think these two are going to have a whole lot of fun going back and forth for four quarters, but that as much of a wish as anything else.
Again, that’s a whole lot of points out there to go get so you can hit the over.
How many Alabama games went over 75? Three. Three out of the 12.
How many Ohio State games went over 75? Two. Two out of the seven with Indiana going off and Rutgers doing enough to hold up its side of the deal in a 49-27 game.
Remember, there are people who get paid a whole lot of money on both of these teams to come up with a little bit of D. This can be a shootout and still be 40-34.
NEXT: Ohio State money line and both teams score 30 or more
2. Ohio State money line and both teams score 30 or more
LINE: +475
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is the all-in value call.
You’re getting +250 on Ohio State on the money line, and the extra +225 is terrific considering this has all of the makings of a back-and-forth firefight.
Alabama has yet to score fewer than 31 points this year, and when it didn’t blow past 40, it was because it took its foot off the gas.
Ohio State didn’t score 30 in just one of its seven games, but there is a risk here. The Buckeye defense was able to hold everyone but Indiana – Clemson included – under 30, and Florida and Ole Miss were the only teams to get past 30 on the Crimson Tide.
If you’re thinking Ohio State will win, then here’s where you have some fun hoping this gets really, really crazy. These two have the offense to keep trading punches all night long.
NEXT: Ohio State money line and over 50.5
1. Ohio State money line and over 50.5
LINE: +300
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If you’re a believer in Ohio State winning this, you really should be getting more than +250 for the money line pick, but that’s the deal.
If you think it’s happening, and you think the Buckeyes are going to pull this off, then why not get a little sweetener on top of your pick?
There’s not a ton of big-time value in assuming the over will get to 50.5, but this almost certainly isn’t going to be some 9-6 battle of field goals. Alabama winning and the over on 50.5 is at -250 – there’s no point.
Any Ohio State win will be at least 51 points combined – the 22-10 Big Ten Championship win over Northwestern was the only Buckeye game that didn’t get there – so that’s the easy part.
This isn’t a flier pick, though. You have to like Ohio State in the first place, otherwise that extra +50 isn’t really enough to get you to go with this is you think Bama is pulling this off.
